8月22日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜连续第三个交易日上涨，此前美联储主席暗示可能降 息，同时全球最大金属消费国中国的需求依然强劲。 伦敦时间8月22日17:00(北京时间8月23日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨72美元，或0.74%，收报每吨 9,796.5美元，盘中一度触及8月14日以来高位9,813.50美元。 | | 8月22日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 金属 | 收盘价 张跃 张跃帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,796.50 ↑ +72.00 ↑ +0.74% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,624.50 1 +39.50 ↑ +1.53% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,818.00 1 +52.50 ↑ +1.90% | | 三个月期铅 | +25.00 ↑ +1.27% 1,995.00 ↑ | | 三个月期镇 | 15.100.00 ↑ +171.00 ↑ +1.15% | | 三个月期锡 | 33,809.00 ↑ +389.00 ↑ +1.16% | 不过，铜价仍低于7月2日触及的三个月高点10,020.50美元。 数据来源：文华财经 ...

8月15日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜因美元走软小幅上涨，市场观望美俄首脑会晤结果。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月15日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫称，俄美双方的谈判全程或需至少6 至7小时。其中普京与特朗普的一对一闭门会谈，双方助理将在场。 他强调，俄罗斯方面希望普京与特朗普在阿拉斯加的会晤能够取得成果。 俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普定于当地时间8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇举行会晤，这将是 俄美领导人2021年6月以来的首次面对面会晤。 伦敦时间8月15日17:00(北京时间8月16日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨7.5美元，或0.08%，收报每吨 9,773.5美元。 随着数据密集的一周接近尾声，美元走软支撑市场。 美元贬值使得以美元计价的商品对使用其他货币的买家来说价格降低。 上海期货交易所周五的数据显示，本周铜库存再次上升，过去两周增加了20%，达到86,361吨，为两个 月来的最高水平。 美国COMEX期铜上涨0.4%，至每磅4.50美元，使COMEX期铜对LME期铜的溢价达到每吨137美元，或 1.4%。 花旗（Citi）将未来三个月的铜价预估从之前的每吨8,800美元上调至 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Japan, with prices closing at $9,930.5 per ton, up $11 or 0.11% [1] - COMEX copper prices increased by 1.84% to $5.8265 per pound, with a record high of $5.93 earlier, driven by the anticipation of a 50% tariff on imported copper by the US starting August 1 [3] - The market sentiment improved following the US-Japan trade agreement, contributing to a rise in global stock markets and increasing investor interest in potential US-China trade agreements [3] Group 2 - Concerns over copper supply surplus persisted, with a reported surplus of 272,000 tons in the first five months of the year, leading to pressure on the market [4] - LME three-month aluminum prices fell by $7.5 or 0.28%, closing at $2,651.0 per ton, marking the worst performance among base metals on that day [4] - LME three-month tin prices rose by $945 or 2.79%, closing at $34,853.0 per ton, indicating strong demand despite overall market pressures [5]

Group 1 - LME zinc prices reached a four-month high due to concerns over supply tightness, with over 50% of the registered warehouse inventory marked as canceled warrants [1][3] - As of July 21, LME three-month zinc closed at $2,838.50 per ton, up $20 or 0.71% [1][2] - Total zinc inventory in LME warehouses is 118,225 tons, with 50% or 59,900 tons available for delivery, raising questions about the actual movement of zinc from warehouses [3] Group 2 - The increase in nickel prices is attributed to expectations of rising demand from China, leading to short covering by traders [4] - Industrial metal prices are supported by stable growth plans in China's machinery, automotive, and electrical equipment sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell due to a significant increase in inventory and a strengthening US dollar, leading to sell-offs [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 14, LME three-month copper closed at $9,619.00 per ton, down $41.50 or 0.43% [1][2]. - The lowest point for the contract earlier in the day was $9,575 per ton, with strong technical support around the 100-day moving average of $9,565 [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory totaled 109,625 tons, with a slight increase of 900 tons from the previous trading day [3]. - Over 26,000 tons of copper inventory, originally set to exit the LME system from Asia, have been re-registered, allowing them to be traded again [3]. - The increase in LME copper supply has widened the spot/three-month contract discount to $50 per ton, the highest level since April 23 [5]. Group 3: Trade Policies and Impacts - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products effective August 1, which traders believe may have influenced the cancellation of warehouse receipts that were likely intended for the US before the tariff took effect [3][4]. - The short time frame from the announcement to the tariff deadline is insufficient for transporting metals from Asia [4]. Group 4: Import and Export Data - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in June were 464,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 2.633 million tons for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [5]. - In contrast, China's imports of copper concentrate increased by 6.4% year-on-year, totaling 1.4754 million tons in the first half of the year [6]. - China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in June were 489,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 2.918 million tons for the first half of the year, down 8% year-on-year [7].

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $90, or 0.9%, closing at $9,864.5 per ton, after reaching a three-month high of $10,020.5 earlier in the week [1] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down $15 to $2,590.0, zinc down $26.5 to $2,724.0, lead down $5.5 to $2,058.5, nickel down $161 to $15,290.0, and tin down $146 to $33,702.0 [2][6][7][8][9][10] - Market sentiment is cautious as major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, and India, continue negotiations with the U.S. regarding trade agreements, with potential tariffs looming [3] Group 2 - The U.S. job report showed an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - The market anticipates a 95.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting, up from 76.2% earlier [4] - Guinea's bauxite exports are projected to increase by 36% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a record 99.8 million tons [5]

Group 1 - London copper prices experienced a slight decline, with three-month copper down by $36 or 0.36% to $9,842 per ton, following a three-month high reached last Friday [3] - The Shanghai copper market saw the most active August contract drop by 120 yuan or 0.15% to 79,650 yuan per ton [5] - The financial markets were buoyed by the announcement from the Canadian government to cancel the digital services tax, aiming for a "mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement" with the U.S. [5][6] Group 2 - The dollar's weakness provided support to the metal markets, keeping the dollar index near a three-year low [7] - A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers, potentially increasing demand [8] - COMEX copper fell by 0.8% to $5.08 per pound, with the premium of COMEX over LME copper slightly decreasing to $1,365 per ton [9]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $43.5, or 0.45%, closing at $9,712.5 per ton, supported by a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which improved overall market sentiment [1] - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month copper fell significantly from $280 per ton to $87.5 per ton, marking the largest drop since November 2021 [3] - Analysts noted that copper prices have remained stable due to concerns over global economic growth, limited copper concentrate supply, and decreasing LME registered warehouse inventories [3] Group 2 - Other metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum down by $15.5, or 0.6%, closing at $2,563.5 per ton, while zinc rose by $23, or 0.86%, closing at $2,704.5 per ton [4] - Three-month tin saw a significant increase of $874, or 2.7%, closing at $33,193.0 per ton, reaching its highest point since April 8 [4] - Nickel prices increased by $154, or 1.03%, closing at $15,074.0 per ton, reflecting a general upward trend in certain metals despite the geopolitical risks [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [1][3] - On June 24, LME three-month copper rose by $1.50, or 0.02%, closing at $9,669.00 per ton, with an intraday high of $9,760.50 [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant outflow of copper from LME registered warehouses, with a 65% reduction in inventory since mid-February, now at 94,675 tons, the lowest since August 2023 [3] Group 2 - The current copper market is characterized by tight supply, as evidenced by the premium of $151 per ton for spot copper contracts over three-month copper, down from $280 the previous day [3] - The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper market shortage of 38,000 tons in April, contrasting with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March [3] - Other metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum down by $9.50, or 0.37%, while lead increased by $16, or 0.8% [2][4]

Group 1: Market Reactions - LME three-month aluminum surged to a three-month high due to U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to rising energy prices and potential disruptions in aluminum transportation in the Middle East [1][4] - On June 21, LME three-month aluminum rose by $39, or 1.53%, closing at $2,588.50 per ton, with an intraday peak of $2,654.50, the highest since March 21 [1][2] Group 2: Energy Costs and Supply Concerns - In some regions of the Middle East, energy accounts for 40%-45% of aluminum smelting costs [3] - Concerns about escalating conflicts in the Middle East and potential disruptions in oil and gas supplies have intensified [4] - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it could significantly impact transportation, as Middle Eastern countries produce nearly 9% of the world's aluminum [4] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - LME three-month copper increased by $34, or 0.35%, closing at $9,667.50 per ton, with spot copper contracts premium soaring to $340 per ton, the highest since October 2022 [5] - The rise in copper prices is partly attributed to a decline in copper inventory in LME-approved warehouses and U.S. investigations into potential tariffs on imported copper [5][6] - LME has imposed new restrictions on holders of large positions in near-month contracts due to low inventory levels [7]