张尧浠：美12月降息预期持续升温、金价多头持稳仍看走强 上交易日周三(11月26日)：国际黄金反弹收涨，继续运行在中轨等均线上方，多头占据优势，布林带也向上延伸等等，基本面市场对美联储在下月会议上 降息的预期继续进一步增强，整体暗示后市将继续反弹走强，冲击4230美元或更高位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4132.01美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4129.67美元，之后日内基本处于4145美元上方震荡走盘，并于欧盘尾录得日内高点 4173.43美元，最终于美盘尾窄幅震荡4160美元上方，收于4163.77美元，日振幅43.76美元，收涨31.76美元，涨幅0.77%。 影响上，虽然日内几度受到俄罗斯已收到最新版和平计划，以及美盘整体数据利空的影响而回落，但因俄罗斯达成协议还为时尚早！美联储褐皮书揭示经 济隐忧，市场对于美联储降息预期继续升温，而提振金价多头持稳，最终表现收阳。 展望今日周四(11月27日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅波动，但由于目前多头占据优势，美元指数早盘开盘表现走低，运行至中轨下方，则仍暗示金价日内仍 偏向看涨反弹为主。那么操作上，依然还是依托日内5日均线以及短周期均线支撑进行看涨反弹。 日内 ...

上周美国申请失业救济人数降至22万，显示尽管经济不确定性存在，雇主大体上依然保留现有员工。该 报告是美国政府因停摆43天中断数据发布后，首次公布的全国性初请失业金数据。美国劳工统计局表 示，10月就业报告将不再发布，11月的就业数据要到12月16日（即美联储今年最后一次会议之后）才会 公布。目前政策制定者对于今年是否应第三次降息意见不一。 ...

报道还提到，投资者通常会将黄金作为对通胀和经济不确定性的一种对冲，因为即使其他资产下跌，黄金 也具有保值能力。今年到目前为止，黄金已经上涨了50%以上，尽管近期有所下跌，但仍有望创下自1979 年以来的最佳年度表现。Julius Baer分析师Carsten Menke周二表示："我们仍然看好黄金长期的基本面背 景。" 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间11月19日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报 4067.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌0.34%报50.54美元/盎司。 分析人士指出，美联储副主席杰斐逊重申，随着利率接近中性水平，决策者需要更加谨慎、缓步推进，这 标志着美联储官员对货币政策路径存在分歧，导致市场对12月降息预期降温，进而压制金价表现。 《纽约邮报》发文称，黄金价格连续第四天下跌，因市场对美联储12月会议降息的期望减弱，目前降息25 个基点的预期降至52.6%，低于上月的93.7%。尽管如此，分析师认为黄金价格可能很快见底，因预计未来 几季美联储仍会降息且央行多元化投资依然强劲。 消息面上，印度商务部公布数据显示，印度10月黄金进口创下历史新高，同比飙升近三倍至 ...

Gold prices on Tuesday plunged to their lowest levels in more than a week on diminishing hopes for an interest-rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting.Gold futures dropped 0.3% to $4,062.20 per ounce as of about 12:30 p.m. ET — the fourth straight day of declines. The precious metal hit its lowest price since Nov. 10 earlier in the session.The drop comes as traders are pricing in just 52.6% odds of a quarter-point cut next month – down from 93.7% odds this time last month, according to CME FedWatch.  3 Gol ...

家得宝(HD.US)与劳氏(LOW.US)本周公布季度财报时，其销售额预计将呈现小幅增长。这将为投资者提供一个 观察窗口：市场前景是否正在改善，抑或消费者的谨慎态度仍在抑制房屋装修和DIY的消费支出。 由于美国总统特朗普实施的关税政策，这两家美国家装零售巨头在地板、五金和照明等品类上面临着更高的原 材料成本，并将部分成本上涨转嫁给了消费者。不过，分析师预计，对中国商品关税的暂时暂停将带来短期的 缓解。 据耶鲁大学预算实验室的数据，美国消费者承担的实际关税率今年已飙升至17.9%，为1934年以来的最高水平， 这给家庭预算带来了更大压力，而此前美国联邦政府遭遇历史上最长时间的停摆更是加剧了这一状况。 然而，美联储在九月和十月各降息25个基点，这让华尔街分析师对消费者重新增加支出持乐观态度。 家装零售商也期待需求在数月的高利率之后能够回升，因为高利率曾促使房主推迟那些通常需要融资的项目， 如厨房改造、浴室升级和游泳池安装。 Gabelli Funds的投资组合经理约瑟夫.加贝利表示："成屋销售的加速可能会刺激家装活动的改善，但这需要负担 能力提高、利率下降和消费者信心增强共同作用。"该公司持有家得宝和劳氏不到1% ...

Economic Uncertainty - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to concerns about the potential delay or non-release of key economic data, such as the October CPI and employment report [2] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased to approximately 50%, down from over 95%, as recent statements from Federal Reserve officials lean towards a hawkish stance, putting pressure on gold prices [3] Dollar and Safe-Haven Sentiment - A weakening dollar, nearing a two-week low, combined with a soft stock market, has created a demand for safe-haven assets, providing support for gold prices [4] - The uncertainty surrounding the release of key economic data from the U.S. government, particularly the October CPI and employment report, is crucial as it will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Technical Levels - Resistance level is at $4245, which is the previous day's high and a key resistance point [5] - Support levels are identified between $4145 and $4160, which correspond to the previous day's low and the current Asian session low [6] - A strong support/resistance level is noted at $4100 (psychological level) and $4300 (round number) [6]

Core Insights - The price of gold has experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a high of $4,360 per troy ounce on October 20, before dropping to $3,970 and then rebounding to around $4,260 recently, indicating ongoing volatility in the market [2][3][7] - Analysts suggest that despite the end of the federal government shutdown, the demand for gold remains strong due to economic uncertainty and potential political risks, with UBS projecting a possible price increase to $4,700 if risks escalate [3][4][7] Investment Demand - There has been a notable increase in investment demand for gold, particularly from North American exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have significantly boosted trading volumes [3][8] - U.S. gold trading volume reached a record high of $208 billion per day in October, with a 59% increase in September and a further 51% rise in October, driven primarily by ETF demand [8] Market Environment - The current market environment remains uncertain, with potential for further government shutdowns and legal challenges to tariff policies, which could sustain support for gold prices [9][10] - UBS anticipates that global gold demand could reach its highest level since 2011 due to factors such as potential interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and high levels of global government debt [11] Retail Demand - Retail demand for gold has shown improvement, particularly for gold bars in the U.S., with reports of strong sales from retailers like Costco, driven by consumer trust and stable pricing in a rising market [12]

Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 43 days, is set to end after the House voted to pass a funding bill [1][2][6] - The funding bill will keep the government operational until January 30, allowing federal workers to return to their jobs and receive back pay [1][6] - The shutdown has caused significant economic disruptions, including delayed paychecks for federal workers and a halt in crucial economic data reporting [4] Economic Impact - The end of the shutdown may alleviate some economic uncertainty that has affected the economy in recent months [3] - Despite the anticipated economic rebound once federal workers receive back pay, there may be lasting damage due to the shutdown's effects [4] - The conflict that led to the shutdown remains unresolved, particularly regarding the expiration of health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which could increase premiums by an average of $1,000 per month for affected individuals [4][7]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without change, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainty [2][4] - Two members of the policy committee voted in favor of raising the rate to 0.75%, indicating growing internal divisions regarding inflation pressures and the normalization of interest rates [2][4] - The central bank emphasized the need to monitor economic data closely, suggesting that if inflation continues to improve, a gradual rate hike may be considered to prevent overheating [2][4] Group 2 - The latest economic forecast from the Bank of Japan raised the GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2025 to 0.7%, driven by increased corporate investment and consumer recovery [4] - Core CPI is expected to remain around the 2% target over the next three years, supported by falling energy prices and wage growth, although risks of inflation decline due to weak demand or cost fluctuations were noted [4][5] - The improvement in economic data provides room for potential rate hikes, but the central bank must ensure the sustainability of inflation [4][5] Group 3 - Following the announcement, the yen experienced a brief rebound, with the USD/JPY rate dropping to 153.08, but later retraced some gains due to ongoing pressure from interest rate differentials with other major economies [5][7] - Market reactions indicate that the necessity for a rate hike is increasing, with concerns that inaction could lead to further yen depreciation and heightened import inflation [5][7] - The future trajectory of the yen will depend on the timing of the Bank of Japan's rate hikes and the global economic environment, necessitating close monitoring of subsequent data releases [5][7] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan faces increasing domestic and international pressures, with rising wages and consumer recovery potentially driving sustained inflation [7][8] - Calls for interest rate normalization from the business sector are growing, while the high interest rate environment maintained by other central banks exacerbates yen weakness and capital outflow risks [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan may initiate rate hikes in early next year, but the approach will be gradual to avoid disrupting the fragile economic recovery [7][8]

这一切都发生在一个充满挑战的时刻。投资者不仅要应对美国政府停摆造成的经济数据荒，而且现有的指标也显示劳动力市 场疲软，通胀持续高企。美联储正被严重政治化，特朗普政府在抨击美联储独立性的同时，还准备提名明年接替鲍威尔的人 选。 鹰派和鸽派 由19名成员组成的委员会在任何时候都会有12名有投票权的成员，其中包括美联储理事和11家地区联储总裁。 今日 Ultima Markets 为您带来了美联储内部分歧与货币政策路径的深度解析。关键词：美联储分歧、鲍威尔领导力、双向异 议、降息政策、鹰鸽博弈、货币政策路径、经济不确定性 简介：聚焦美联储降息决策中的内部分化态势，解析鲍威尔共识领导力面临的挑战，探讨鹰鸽博弈与经济不确定性对后续利 率政策的影响，助您把握美联储货币政策调整中的市场预期与趋势变化。 随着经济不确定性迷雾日趋浓厚，美联储19人货币政策制定委员会内部的分歧和异议也在加深，这对主席鲍威尔建立共识的 能力提出了终极考验。 美联储上周的降息决定符合市场预期，但这次会议却具有历史意义。美联储以10票赞成、两票反对的结果将指标利率区间下 调25个基点，这是自1990年以来，第三次在拥有投票权的决策者中同时出现双向异议 ...