Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in precious metals prices, particularly gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, indicates a potential turning point in the market, with significant fluctuations observed after a period of rapid price increases [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of approximately 65% this year, while silver and platinum have surged over 150% and 70% respectively [2]. - Silver futures prices skyrocketed from around $50 per ounce to above $80 per ounce, marking a record monthly increase [1]. - Platinum prices rose from over $1,640 per ounce to nearly $2,450 per ounce within three weeks, achieving a nearly 50% increase [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price drop in precious metals is attributed to profit-taking after previous gains, reduced geopolitical risks, and increased margin requirements by major exchanges [2][5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have raised margin requirements, contributing to the market's volatility [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The performance of the gold market in 2026 will depend on various interacting factors, with expectations of moderate price increases or stability in most scenarios [3]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, reflecting a long-term strategy for reserve diversification [3]. Group 4: Demand Factors - Silver's industrial demand is expected to rise significantly due to its applications in solar energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [4]. - Platinum is transitioning from traditional uses to becoming a key metal in energy transformation, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [4]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The changing role of gold as a hard currency is being recognized by investors, especially in light of rising U.S. debt and concerns over fiscal sustainability [5]. - Market sentiment and investor emotions are increasingly influencing precious metals prices, suggesting that the market is becoming more of a "funding market" [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the successful trade talks between China and the U.S., leading to increased demand for risk assets and a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent drop in international gold prices from $3,500 to $3,200 is attributed to the successful U.S.-China trade negotiations, which have boosted the stock market and the dollar, consequently reducing the appeal of gold [1]. - The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold prices is highlighted, with the dollar rebounding from 99 to 108, leading to a corresponding decline in gold prices [1]. - The significant rise in gold prices over the past two years, from $2,000 to $3,500, is noted as a contributing factor to the current price correction [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold - The current downtrend in gold prices is viewed as an adjustment phase rather than a short-term fluctuation, with expectations of a prolonged downward adjustment due to reduced market anxiety following the trade talks [3]. - The potential for a global economic recovery is discussed, with countries likely to cooperate with the U.S. to address its $36 trillion debt issue, which could stabilize the dollar and the global economy [5]. - The expectation is that gold will enter a slow decline, akin to a "slow bear" market, with intermittent rebounds influenced by unforeseen events, particularly those related to U.S. politics [7]. - Long-term projections suggest that while gold may experience a downtrend in the short to medium term, it could eventually surpass $3,500 and potentially reach $4,000 or $5,000 over a five to ten-year horizon [8]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - It is advised that individuals should not hastily invest in gold at this time, but those with sufficient funds for long-term investment may consider a small allocation, as there is potential for future price recovery [10]. - The recommendation emphasizes a rational approach to gold investment, particularly for inflation hedging, while avoiding impulsive decisions driven by market trends [10].