今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】江苏太仓甲醇市场价2375元/吨，下降50元/ 吨 ； 甲 醇 开 工 88.47% ， 周 下 降 3.7% ； 下 游 总 产 能 利 用 率 71.01%，周下降0.48%；中国甲醇港口样本库存48.39万吨，周 下降7.8万吨；甲醇样本生产企业库存33.58万吨，周增加3.19 万吨，样本企业订单待发27.36万吨，周增加3.58万吨。评：成 本端煤炭价格预期偏弱，当前甲醇利润尚可，国内甲醇开工预 期高位运行，下游需求较稳，本周显性外轮到港量预期环比增 加，港口甲醇库存或累库。内地甲醇市场偏弱，企业竞拍成交 一般，港口甲醇市场现货基差企稳，商谈成交一般。预计甲醇 09合约短期震荡偏弱运行，下方支撑2265一线，建议观望或回 调短线做多。 【短评-黄金】美联储主席鲍威尔在一份备忘录中表示，美 联储计划在未来几年将员工人数削减10%，包括为一些年长员工 提供延迟辞职的选择。评：美联储面临裁员问题，并且上周鲍 威尔对美联储未来政策框架提出新的假设，美联储降息问题将 变得更加扑朔迷离。黄金将陷入高位震荡，关注黄金和白银是 否走分化行情。 姓名：蒯三可 投资咨询中心 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the successful trade talks between China and the U.S., leading to increased demand for risk assets and a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent drop in international gold prices from $3,500 to $3,200 is attributed to the successful U.S.-China trade negotiations, which have boosted the stock market and the dollar, consequently reducing the appeal of gold [1]. - The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold prices is highlighted, with the dollar rebounding from 99 to 108, leading to a corresponding decline in gold prices [1]. - The significant rise in gold prices over the past two years, from $2,000 to $3,500, is noted as a contributing factor to the current price correction [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold - The current downtrend in gold prices is viewed as an adjustment phase rather than a short-term fluctuation, with expectations of a prolonged downward adjustment due to reduced market anxiety following the trade talks [3]. - The potential for a global economic recovery is discussed, with countries likely to cooperate with the U.S. to address its $36 trillion debt issue, which could stabilize the dollar and the global economy [5]. - The expectation is that gold will enter a slow decline, akin to a "slow bear" market, with intermittent rebounds influenced by unforeseen events, particularly those related to U.S. politics [7]. - Long-term projections suggest that while gold may experience a downtrend in the short to medium term, it could eventually surpass $3,500 and potentially reach $4,000 or $5,000 over a five to ten-year horizon [8]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - It is advised that individuals should not hastily invest in gold at this time, but those with sufficient funds for long-term investment may consider a small allocation, as there is potential for future price recovery [10]. - The recommendation emphasizes a rational approach to gold investment, particularly for inflation hedging, while avoiding impulsive decisions driven by market trends [10].