Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The cost - side coal price of methanol is expected to be weak, with high - level domestic methanol operations expected. The port methanol inventory may increase. The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - The Fed's potential staff cuts and new policy assumptions make the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain. Gold will be in high - level oscillations [1]. - For coking coal, supply remains high while demand is expected to be weak, and the upstream coal mines still face inventory - accumulation pressure. The short - term futures performance is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The tariff reduction on iron ore brings unexpected positive news, and the ore price oscillates upward. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar strengthen this week. The export recovery expectation rises after China - US tariff negotiations. The rebar price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation [4]. - For live pigs, the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The short - term price is mainly in a weak adjustment [4]. - The domestic palm oil spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term price oscillates [5]. - The domestic soda ash market operates stably, and the soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The increase in money - market interest rates is negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bearishly in the medium term [7]. - The fundamentals are negative for silver, and it is expected to have a wide - range and slightly bearish oscillation in the medium term [8]. - The short - term pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [8]. - Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak. A cautious short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended [9]. - Although the PTA market is boosted by the China - US talks, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. Summaries by Product Methanol - Market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Methanol operating rate is 88.47%, down 3.7% week - on - week. Downstream total capacity utilization is 71.01%, down 0.48% week - on - week. Port inventory is 48.39 tons, down 7.8 tons week - on - week. Production enterprise inventory is 33.58 tons, up 3.19 tons week - on - week. Order backlog is 27.36 tons, up 3.58 tons week - on - week [1]. Gold - The Fed plans to cut staff by 10% in the next few years, and Powell proposed new assumptions about the Fed's future policy framework, making the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain [1]. Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.70%, up 0.26%. Daily coke output is 67.15, up 0.23. Coke inventory is 94.31, down 0.13. Coking coal inventory is 884.93, down 31.69. Coking coal available days are 9.9 days, down 0.39 days [3]. Iron Ore - National 45 - port imported iron ore inventory is 14166.09 tons, down 72.62 tons week - on - week. Daily port clearance volume is 323.89 tons, up 8.68 tons. Number of ships at port is 83, up 4 [3]. Rebar - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Daily hot - metal output is 244.77 tons, down 0.87 tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of May 16, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg, unchanged from last week. Weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.9%, down 0.62%. Profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is 56.69 yuan/head, up 24.99 yuan/head. Self - breeding and self - fattening profit is 122.23 yuan/head, up 8.73 yuan/head. Piglet price is 511.9 yuan/head, up 6.2 yuan/head [4]. Palm Oil - Weekly average trading volume is 626 tons, compared with 2071.5 tons in the previous week [5]. Soda Ash - National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1422.5 yuan/ton. Soda ash operating rate is 80.06%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 171.2 tons, up 0.63% week - on - week. Float - glass operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.22% week - on - week [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Money - market interest rates mostly rise. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repo has an increase: 1 - day term up 21.93 BP to 1.6313%, 7 - day term up 11.29 BP to 1.6374%, 14 - day term up 6.68 BP to 1.6363%, 1 - month term up 8.2 BP to 1.65% [7]. Silver - The US Treasury Secretary responded to Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, and the market's expectation of US economic growth weakens [8]. Crude Oil - As of May 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 473, down 1 from the previous week and 24 from the same period last year [8]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices continue to rise slightly. Hainan's rubber tapping is affected by rainfall. Tire operating rate rises month - on - month but drops significantly year - on - year [9]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at 854 dollars/ton, PX - N is 202 dollars/ton. East China PTA is reported at 5030 yuan/ton. PTA average operating rate is 77.07%, down 1.41% from last week. Polyester average load is 74.63%, down 17.37% from last week. Weaving factory load is 72.2%, unchanged from last week [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the successful trade talks between China and the U.S., leading to increased demand for risk assets and a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent drop in international gold prices from $3,500 to $3,200 is attributed to the successful U.S.-China trade negotiations, which have boosted the stock market and the dollar, consequently reducing the appeal of gold [1]. - The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold prices is highlighted, with the dollar rebounding from 99 to 108, leading to a corresponding decline in gold prices [1]. - The significant rise in gold prices over the past two years, from $2,000 to $3,500, is noted as a contributing factor to the current price correction [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold - The current downtrend in gold prices is viewed as an adjustment phase rather than a short-term fluctuation, with expectations of a prolonged downward adjustment due to reduced market anxiety following the trade talks [3]. - The potential for a global economic recovery is discussed, with countries likely to cooperate with the U.S. to address its $36 trillion debt issue, which could stabilize the dollar and the global economy [5]. - The expectation is that gold will enter a slow decline, akin to a "slow bear" market, with intermittent rebounds influenced by unforeseen events, particularly those related to U.S. politics [7]. - Long-term projections suggest that while gold may experience a downtrend in the short to medium term, it could eventually surpass $3,500 and potentially reach $4,000 or $5,000 over a five to ten-year horizon [8]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - It is advised that individuals should not hastily invest in gold at this time, but those with sufficient funds for long-term investment may consider a small allocation, as there is potential for future price recovery [10]. - The recommendation emphasizes a rational approach to gold investment, particularly for inflation hedging, while avoiding impulsive decisions driven by market trends [10].