Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. The peak summer demand season for crude oil has ended, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The supply from South America has been realized, and the market is focused on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of the US "punishment" measures against India for purchasing Russian oil. On August 21, India stated that it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the risk of an embargo, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. - On Thursday, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, involving two Chinese companies. This round of sanctions has a potentially significant impact, and subsequently, the Dubai market's monthly spread strengthened. - From a macro perspective, the expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September has increased, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, US commercial inventories have decreased, gasoline inventories have decreased, and diesel inventories have increased. This week, the refining margins in Europe and the US have strengthened, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have also strengthened. - Currently, refineries are at their peak operating rates. The latest estimate shows that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the monthly spread of crude oil is expected to face pressure. - In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - $70. In the medium term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will decline to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the crack spread price expectation for European diesel in the fourth quarter has been raised. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Iran killed six armed men who intended to attack a key facility in the country. These armed men were equipped with US - made automatic weapons and other equipment, and seven of them were foreign nationals. The seized documents indicated that they had an Israeli background and might have been trained by the Israeli intelligence and special operations agency (Mossad). - In August, there were continuous supply disruptions of 95 - octane gasoline at gas stations in Crimea due to temporary difficulties in transporting light petroleum products across the Kerch Strait. There was also a gasoline shortage in the Russian Far East. In the Trans - Baikal Territory, the sale of 95 - octane gasoline was temporarily restricted because of a delay in the shipment of gasoline from refineries. - According to the British Financial Times, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ruled out the possibility of direct negotiations with the US and accused Washington of trying to force Iran to submit. [3][4] Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending August 15 were - 2.72 million barrels, compared with an expected - 915,000 barrels and a previous value of - 792,000 barrels. - US EIA refined oil inventories for the week ending August 15 were 2.343 million barrels, compared with an expected 928,000 barrels and a previous value of 714,000 barrels. - From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major refineries decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel at Chinese refineries both decreased, with gasoline inventories decreasing and diesel inventories increasing. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries also declined month - on - month. [4][5] Price Data - From August 18 - 22, the price of WTI crude oil increased by $0.14, Brent by $0.06, and Dubai by $0.11. The price of SC crude oil increased by 2.70 yuan, and OMAN by $0.05. - The price of domestic gasoline remained unchanged, while the price of domestic diesel increased by 17 yuan. The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased by 2.05 dollars, and the price of Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $0.6. - Other spreads such as Brent 1 - 2 monthly spread, WTI - BRENT, etc. also had corresponding changes. [3]