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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250513
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 01:42
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report gives short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural futures including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with all intraday views being "oscillating strongly" [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: CBOT soybean futures reached a three - month high due to eased trade tensions and a bullish USDA report. The significant cut in US soybean production estimates exceeded the cut in exports, leading to an unexpected reduction in US soybean stocks, which boosted US soybean futures prices. After the price difference between domestic and international soybean markets is repaired, the domestic soybean market will also be boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal futures price is temporarily running oscillating strongly under the pressure of supply recovery expectations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The expected increase in Southeast Asian palm oil inventories will still suppress the performance of palm oil futures prices. The implementation progress of Indonesia's B40 policy will be affected by international oil prices. In the short term, rapeseed oil is the vane in the oil sector, and its strong upward trend is expected to continue, which will also give some support to palm oil futures prices, making it run oscillating strongly [7]. Other Varieties (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil in General) - **Core Logic Factors**: For soybean oil 2509, factors include US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand. For palm 2509, factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].