策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期内外盘豆类价差迎来修复。外盘美豆期价震荡偏强，国内豆类期价转为高位震荡。内外盘 分化始终凸显市场对近端压力与远期缺口的博弈。短期受中美谈判进程影响，市场情绪随之波动，豆粕期 价迎来高位动荡行情。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：马棕出口增幅超出市场预期，显示棕榈油的需求依然旺盛。叠加印尼 6 月底棕榈油库存环比下 降，国际棕榈油产业链的向好预期仍 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the prices of soymeal and palm oil are showing signs of weakness. The internal and external linkages of soybeans have strengthened after the price difference repair, and the decline in US soybean futures prices has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal, with its futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend. The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, and the lack of driving factors for palm oil has caused it to be dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [5] - **Reference View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: After the repair of the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans, the internal - external linkage has increased. The decline in US soybean futures prices due to concerns about the demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates, along with the incomplete recovery of the oil refinery's shipping rhythm, have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Weak [7] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [7] - **Reference View**: Weak [7] - **Core Logic**: The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, with some short - term funds leaving the market. The US soybean oil futures hitting the daily limit down due to the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has dragged down the domestic soybean oil futures prices. Palm oil lacks driving factors and is dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report gives short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural futures including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with all intraday views being "oscillating strongly" [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: CBOT soybean futures reached a three - month high due to eased trade tensions and a bullish USDA report. The significant cut in US soybean production estimates exceeded the cut in exports, leading to an unexpected reduction in US soybean stocks, which boosted US soybean futures prices. After the price difference between domestic and international soybean markets is repaired, the domestic soybean market will also be boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal futures price is temporarily running oscillating strongly under the pressure of supply recovery expectations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The expected increase in Southeast Asian palm oil inventories will still suppress the performance of palm oil futures prices. The implementation progress of Indonesia's B40 policy will be affected by international oil prices. In the short term, rapeseed oil is the vane in the oil sector, and its strong upward trend is expected to continue, which will also give some support to palm oil futures prices, making it run oscillating strongly [7]. Other Varieties (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil in General) - **Core Logic Factors**: For soybean oil 2509, factors include US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand. For palm 2509, factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].