内外盘豆类价差修复

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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250822
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:09
Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for August 22, 2025, covering the price trends and core logics of varieties like soybean meal and palm oil [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report provides intraday, medium - term and reference views on soybean meal and palm oil futures, and analyzes the driving factors and core logics of their price trends [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign beans has been repaired. The US soybean futures price is oscillating strongly, while the domestic soybean futures price is in high - level oscillation. The market is in a game between near - term pressure and long - term supply gap. The soybean meal futures price has a high - level volatile market affected by the Sino - US negotiation process [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7] - **Core Logic**: The export growth of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, indicating strong demand. Coupled with the decline in Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June, the positive expectation of the international palm oil industry chain supports the palm oil futures price. The domestic palm oil futures price follows the international oil market, and is oscillating strongly in the short term with strong support below [7]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250516
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the prices of soymeal and palm oil are showing signs of weakness. The internal and external linkages of soybeans have strengthened after the price difference repair, and the decline in US soybean futures prices has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal, with its futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend. The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, and the lack of driving factors for palm oil has caused it to be dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [5] - **Reference View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: After the repair of the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans, the internal - external linkage has increased. The decline in US soybean futures prices due to concerns about the demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates, along with the incomplete recovery of the oil refinery's shipping rhythm, have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Weak [7] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [7] - **Reference View**: Weak [7] - **Core Logic**: The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, with some short - term funds leaving the market. The US soybean oil futures hitting the daily limit down due to the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has dragged down the domestic soybean oil futures prices. Palm oil lacks driving factors and is dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [7].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250513
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 01:42
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report gives short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural futures including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with all intraday views being "oscillating strongly" [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: CBOT soybean futures reached a three - month high due to eased trade tensions and a bullish USDA report. The significant cut in US soybean production estimates exceeded the cut in exports, leading to an unexpected reduction in US soybean stocks, which boosted US soybean futures prices. After the price difference between domestic and international soybean markets is repaired, the domestic soybean market will also be boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal futures price is temporarily running oscillating strongly under the pressure of supply recovery expectations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The expected increase in Southeast Asian palm oil inventories will still suppress the performance of palm oil futures prices. The implementation progress of Indonesia's B40 policy will be affected by international oil prices. In the short term, rapeseed oil is the vane in the oil sector, and its strong upward trend is expected to continue, which will also give some support to palm oil futures prices, making it run oscillating strongly [7]. Other Varieties (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil in General) - **Core Logic Factors**: For soybean oil 2509, factors include US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand. For palm 2509, factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].