美国劳动力市场供过于求

Search documents
就业转向供过于求——8月美国非农数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-09-06 02:36
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a shift in the labor market towards oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021, while the labor participation rate increased to 62.3% [2][5][14] - The U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points, indicating increased difficulty for marginal labor to find employment, suggesting a cooling labor market overall [5][14] - Non-farm payroll additions decreased significantly in August, with only 22,000 new jobs created, and downward revisions of 21,000 jobs for June and July combined [2][14] Group 2 - The education and healthcare sector saw the largest decline in new jobs, losing 31,000 positions, while government and financial sectors also experienced notable job losses [4][5] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.18 million in July, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, indicating that labor supply exceeds demand, suggesting a potential turning point in the labor market [7][14] - Wage growth is slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 3.7% year-over-year, reflecting a decline in workers' bargaining power [9][10] Group 3 - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 12.2%, and expectations for 2.8 rate cuts within the year [14] - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, was 1.2% year-over-year in July, indicating stable wage income growth despite the overall cooling labor market [16]