核 心 观 点 今年以来，美联储连续按兵不动，但在全球央行会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表态，降息决策更多地关 注就业变化。然而，7月美国非农数据出现大幅下修，引起市场对数据质量的质疑。那么，美国劳动力市 场实际现状究竟如何？ 美国就业究竟是好是坏？ 美国劳动力市场无疑正在降温。 7 月新增非农就业 3 个月移动平均值持续呈下降趋 势，若按当前回落速度粗略估计，今年 10 月新增就业或将濒临转负。 5 月和 6 月的数据遭到异常下调，或与 数据质量差和模型不稳有关， ADP 新增就业同样显示就业增长明显放缓。家庭调查的细节数据，也已经反应 了劳动力市场的广泛降温。 劳动力供给来看， 积极求职的人减少，就业率自 2023 年底以来便逐步下行，退出 劳动力市场的人中灰心的人数正在增多。此外，失业者的待业时间也在增加。 劳动力市场流动性变差， 近期 企业裁员率未出现明显走高，然而，雇员由于对经济前景并不乐观等原因，自主辞职率已经下降。 薪资来 看， 薪资增速在下滑，跳槽也难抬价，劳动者议价能力在减弱。 ADP 就业佐证降温。 不过，就业市场的降温同样在 ADP 私营部门就业人数中显现。 ADP 公司是一家人力资 本管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm employment data shows a significant downward revision in previous months, indicating an overestimation of employment levels, particularly in government sectors. The overall labor market is cooling down, with rising unemployment rates and declining labor participation rates [2][3][5]. Employment Data Revision - The July non-farm employment recorded an increase of 73,000 jobs, but previous months' data were heavily revised downwards. June's employment was adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [3][2]. Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%. This indicates a broad cooling of the job market, with a decrease in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since the beginning of 2023 [5][6]. Sector-Specific Employment Changes - Job growth in July was concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, with retail, education, and financial activities seeing the most significant increases. However, government employment decreased by 10,000 jobs, marking the third negative month this year, with substantial downward revisions in previous months [6][2]. Labor Market Supply and Demand - As of June, job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.44 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%. The labor supply-demand gap recorded 422,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [8]. Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings in July increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9%. However, long-term trends show a slowdown in wage growth since November 2024 [9][10]. Real Wage Growth - The real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, showed a year-over-year increase of 1% in June, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates stable wage income growth [10]. Sectoral Wage Changes - In July, the highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. Conversely, the slowest growth was in public utilities and construction, with declines of approximately 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points [12]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts in September have increased, with the probability rising from 40% to 80%. The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has also increased from 1.3 to 2.2 [16].

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, continuing a downward trend from previous months[2] - The combined downward revision for March and April was 95,000, indicating a potential overestimation of current employment levels[2][5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%[2][10] Sector Analysis - Job growth in May was primarily driven by the service sector, which added 145,000 jobs, while government employment decreased by 22,000[8] - Manufacturing jobs saw a decline of 13,000, influenced by tariff policies[2][8] - The federal government has reduced employment by 59,000 since January, reflecting ongoing layoffs[5][8] Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9%[13] - The average workweek remained steady at 34.3 hours, suggesting stable wage growth may support consumer spending[13] Market Expectations - Following the release of the May non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly adjusted to two potential cuts within the year, with the earliest possible in September[21] - Despite the overall stability in unemployment rates, the declining labor force participation and continuous downward revisions in employment data suggest a cooling job market[21] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[25][26]