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日评-20251017
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:35
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Sino - US trade friction is in a mutual exploration stage, which may suppress market risk appetite in the short term, but the long - term upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and precious metals are strongly supported by safe - haven demand. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding operation suggestions based on their supply - demand situations and market factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index - The Sino - US trade friction may lead to short - term fluctuations in the stock index, which is expected to fall first and then rebound. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged. For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait for the fluctuations to converge and then enter the market at low levels, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond's allocation value recovers when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. The short - term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities by observing [2]. Precious Metals - Gold remains strong due to safe - haven demand. It is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels or use out - of - the - money call options instead. Silver follows gold's upward trend, and long positions above $53 should be held [2]. Shipping Index - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) has downward movement. Short - term fluctuations are repeated. It is recommended to buy below 1600 for the main contract, take a unilateral wait - and - see approach, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [2]. Steel - The apparent demand for steel recovers, and inventory turns to seasonal destocking. The profit margin converges. It is recommended to take a unilateral wait - and - see approach, and the monthly spread should be arbitraged by selling high [2]. Iron Ore - The supply - side disturbance of iron ore weakens, and the price oscillates and weakens. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, with the range of 750 - 800, and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - For coking coal, it is recommended to go long at low levels, with the range of 1120 - 1250, and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coke, it is recommended to go long at low levels, with the range of 1620 - 1770, and conduct the same arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuate at a high level, and the support level is 84000 - 85000. Alumina's cost support weakens, and the main contract runs in the range of 2750 - 2950. Aluminum's main contract ranges from 20700 - 21300, and the aluminum alloy's main contract ranges from 20200 - 20800. Zinc prices oscillate, and the main contract ranges from 21500 - 22500. Tin continues to be weak, and it is recommended to look for buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment declines. Nickel's main contract ranges from 120000 - 126000, and stainless steel's main contract ranges from 12400 - 12800 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short on rallies. Urea's supply - demand balance improvement is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. PX and PTA have weak supply - demand expectations and are recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Short - fiber has short - term support, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin at low levels. Bottle - chip's processing margin improves in the short term. Ethanol is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Caustic soda and PVC are recommended to stop loss on short positions. Benzene and styrene are recommended to short on rebounds and expand the spread at low levels. Synthetic rubber is expected to rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to stop profit on short - call options. LLDPE is recommended to pay attention to the destocking inflection point, and PP is recommended to wait and see [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans, it is recommended to pay attention to the domestic arrival rhythm. For hogs, it is recommended to hold 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage positions. Grains and oils fluctuate in a narrow range. Sugar is in a bearish trend, and cotton is recommended to hold short positions. Eggs are recommended to look for monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities. Apples' main contract runs around 8500. Orange juice is expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Soda ash is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - Glass is recommended to stop loss on short positions, and rubber is recommended to wait and see. Industrial silicon prices oscillate weakly, with the range of 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - Polysilicon is recommended to hold long positions, and lithium carbonate's main price center is in the range of 74,000 - 76,000 yuan [2].