内外现货走强，铝价继续攀升 铝周报 2026/01/10 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 | 原铝基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差（元/吨、美元/吨） 月产量（万吨） | 冶炼利润（元/吨） | 库存（万吨） | 需求 | 进口盈亏（元/吨） | | 数据 | 华东：-95（+115） 375 LME：+8.3（+33.2） | +8208.2 （+1607.4） | 71.8（+8） | 铝材环节开工 率企稳回升 | -2771.7（-491.1） | | 多空评分 | +2 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | | 简评 | 国内现货基差回升， 国内电解铝开工 | 冶炼利润增加，处 | 铝锭库存增加 | 需求边际偏稳 | 进口亏损扩大， | | | LME现货贴水转为升水 维持高位 | ...

【中山大洋电机股份有限公司(以下简称"大洋电机"或"公司")1月9日晚间发布公告称，为应对原材料价 格波动风险，公司及子公司计划在2028年度开展铜、铝商品期货套期保值业务，预计任一时点占用保证 金最高额度合计不超过2.08亿元人民币。】 套保规模与品种明确 公告显示，公司2028年度拟通过境内外期货交易所对不超过22,000吨铜期货与21,500吨铝期货进行套期 保值操作。具体资金安排如下： 公司表示，开展商品期货套期保值业务的主要目的是有效规避原材料价格波动对公司经营成本带来的影 响，保障供应链安全及成本可控性，提升抗风险能力，确保稳健经营。该业务不以投机、套利为目的。 套保策略与实施方式 公司此次套保业务将采取境内外联动的操作模式：在境内期货交易所开展套期保值业务的同时，通过境 外子公司在伦敦金属交易所(LME)设立期货账户，以应对国际化战略下境外有色金属价格剧烈波动风 险。 特别值得注意的是，LME期铜、期铝的最长交易周期可覆盖未来24个月，能够更好地满足公司中长期 生产经营需求。公司将以客户订单周期作为期货操作期，根据现货采购原材料需求量进行等值期货套 保。 风险控制与制度保障 铜期货套期保值预计任 ...

Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自导科 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | 0.21% | 0.86% | 215 | 115 | 165 | 101870 | 101970 | 101920 | 102085 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | | 指 | AL | 0.04% | 1.23% | 10 | -15 | -60 | 23990 | 24015 | 24060 | 24000 | SMM A00铝 | | | 锌 | ZN | 0.52% | 0.54% | 125 | 80 | 40 | 24045 | 24090 | 24130 | 2417 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 9, 2026, and for the month of January 2026 [2][5]. - It also provides the performance of these futures contracts on January 8, 2026, including opening prices, closing prices, price changes, and key support and resistance levels [12][32][40] etc. - The report includes macro - economic news, such as statements from government officials, economic data releases, and geopolitical events, which may impact the futures market [6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **January 9, 2026 Outlook**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile. For example, IF2603 has resistance at 4753 and 4786 points, and support at 4708 and 4690 points [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2602) is expected to be strongly volatile; silver (AG2604), platinum (PT2606), and palladium (PD2606) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Base Metals**: Copper (CU2602), aluminum (AL2602), alumina (AO2605), and tin (SN2602) are expected to be weakly volatile; nickel (NI2602) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Other Commodities**: Polysilicon (PS2605), glass (FG605), and soda ash (SA605) are expected to be weakly volatile; lithium carbonate (LC2605) is expected to be strongly and widely volatile; rebar (RB2605), hot - rolled coil (HC2605), iron ore (I2605), and coking coal (JM2605) are expected to be weakly volatile [2][4]. - **January 2026 Outlook**: - Stock index futures' main continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile [5][17]. - Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum futures' main continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile and may reach new highs [5]. - Polysilicon futures' main continuous contract is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. Macro - economic News - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce will assess Meta's acquisition of Manus; the Ministry of Finance welcomes LSEG's cooperation; Guangzhou plans to develop advanced manufacturing industries [6]. - **International News**: Trump promotes sanctions against Russia; the US may manage Venezuela's oil industry; the US Supreme Court will rule on tariff legality; the US may exit 66 international organizations; the US is expected to cut interest rates; the US economic data shows GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment trends [6][7][8]. Futures Market Performance on January 8, 2026 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, and IC2603 had different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having limited upward space [12][13][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2602) had a slight decline; silver, platinum, and palladium also showed downward trends [32][40][45]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and nickel futures had significant declines [52][58][68]. - **Other Commodities**: Polysilicon futures hit the daily limit down; coking coal futures had a significant increase; glass and soda ash futures had different trends [79][102][106].

20260109申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.98%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，短期铜价更 | | | 多受市场情绪影响。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.73%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。 建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/ ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260109 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金属价格调整延续，A 股步入结构性行情 海外方面，美联储理事米兰指出，当前利率明显高于中性水平、仍具限制性，在基础通 胀已接近目标的背景下，2026 年存在约 150bp 的降息空间，目前 CME 利率期货定价 6、9 月各降息一次。首次申领失业救济人数仍处历史低位，短期压力有限，但持续申领上行反映 再就业效率下降，长期失业风险仍在累积，重点关注今晚非农就业数据。美元指数回升至 98.9，美股涨跌不一，金属价格连续 2 日调整，贵金属相对抗跌，油价反弹。 国内方面，1 月国内经济数据与政策处于相对真空期，对行情的边际驱动有限，市场更 依赖资金结构与风险偏好的自我演绎。周四 A 股延续震荡、结构分化，上证指数小幅收跌 于 4083 点，突破动能趋弱；宽基指数结构分化，微盘、科创风格占优，上证 50、沪深 300 延续弱势，航天军工、发电设备等板块领涨，两市成交额小幅回落至 2.83 万亿、超 3730 只 个股收涨，赚钱效应回升，市场仍处于分化博弈 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/31 -335 5700 111703 81775 -1808.32 -74.26 51.0 49.0 30.39 147425 36825 2026/01/05 -115 7082 111703 90282 -1655.63 -138.56 43.0 46.0 41.98 142550 32650 2026/01/06 -200 7942 111703 93271 -1275.62 53.90 39.0 44.0 2.98 146075 31875 2026/01/07 -320 7742 111703 96474 -1162.96 67.15 39.0 44.0 14.98 143225 29025 2026/01/08 -325 7168 111703 108685 -941.12 186.34 42.0 46.0 16.75 141075 2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 （元/吨） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2026/01/08 | -104.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/07 | -108.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/06 | -113.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/05 | -116.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/31 | -123.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2026/01/08 2026/01/07 2026/01/06 2026/01/05 2025/12 ...

※有色金属期货价格为结算价,其他期货价格为收盘价。 Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 2026年01月08日9:00 备注: 1.基差率为主力合约基差率，计算公式: 主力基差率=（现货价格-主力合约价格）/主力合约价格。基差率历史最值计算的样本为2015年1月1日至今, 2.数据来源：Wind金融终端、钢联数据终端。带*报价为周更数据;带**报价现货与基准交割品有差别, | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自合公 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | -0.65% | -1.01% | -680 | -800 | -790 | 104090 | 104210 | 104200 | 103410 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage from Baocheng Futures, covering multiple futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. It provides data on basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different trading dates [1][2][8][10][18][19][20][28][31][38][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of thermal coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. During this period, the basis gradually increased from - 131.4 yuan/ton to - 108.4 yuan/ton, while the inter - month spreads remained at 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, along with price ratios for some commodities [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The report shows the basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. For example, the basis of rubber decreased from - 370 yuan/ton to - 430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: It presents the inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar decreased from 186.0 yuan/ton to 153.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. Note that the main contract months of rebar are January, May, and October [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of copper increased from - 1600 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton on January 7, 2026 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - The report provides data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 7, 2026 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 decreased from - 204 yuan/ton to - 324 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for multiple agricultural products such as soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [38]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 increased from 12.69 to 23.67 on January 7, 2026 [49]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [49].