2025年11月26日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二贵金属价格震荡，伦敦金受阻于 4150 美元。 | | 金 | 基本面：美国 9 月 PPI 环比增 0.3%，能源成本推动通胀抬头，核心 PPI 环比增速 0.1%低于预期；ADP 周报： | | 属 | 过去四周私营部门就业岗位周均减少 1.35 万、流失加剧；9 月零售销售环比增 0.2%远低于预期，汽车销售成 | | | 主要拖累，疲弱数据推升降息预期；美联储理事米兰表示需要大幅降息，当前货币政策阻碍经济发展，并将 | | | 失业率逐步推高；报道称乌克兰同意美所提计划核心条款，特朗普称仅剩少数分歧，已指派美官员与俄乌双 | | | 方就和平计划展开磋商。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1137.4 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 | | | 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨；上期所白银库存 540 吨，增加 8 吨；金交所 | | | 白银库存上周库存 715 吨，减少 58 吨，COMEX 白银库 ...

4、美联储理事米兰表示，经济需要大幅降息，货币政策正在拖累经济，美联储应该尽快将利率降至中 性水平。 文字早评 2025/11/26 星期三 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： 股指 【行情资讯】 1、外交部：中美元首通话是美方发起的通话氛围是积极的、友好的、建设性的； 2、离岸、在岸人民币均升破 7.09 触及逾一年盘中新高； 3、阿里巴巴公告，2026 财年第二季度财报营收 2,478.0 亿元，同比增长 4.8%；云智能集团收入 398.2 亿元，同比增长 34%。阿里巴巴称，未来三年内不太可能出现人工智能泡沫； IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.39%/-0.74%/-1.03%/-2.02%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.79%/-1.55%/-3.14%/-6.09%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.08%/-2.02%/-4.08%/-7.23%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.30%/-0.47%/-0.48%/-0.77%。 【策略观点】 经过近期的持续下跌后，指数有望阶段性企稳。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长 仍是市场主线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤 | | （元/吨） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | 5月-1月 | | | 9月-1月 | | 9月-5月 | | 2025/11/25 | 21 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/24 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/21 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/20 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/19 | 32 . | 6 | 0 0 . | | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 11 月 25 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 继续走弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 区间交易 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 震荡运行 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏弱震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡，关注 4500-4800 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡 ...

有色金属日报 2025-11-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美领导人通电话，市场情绪回暖，铜价震荡略升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约微涨 0.03%至 10781 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 86040 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 725 至 155750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 小 ...

2025年11月25日 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 25 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：LME现货走强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续承压 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 25, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][38][48] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal - The basis of thermal coal from November 18 to November 24, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - The basis, price ratio, and other data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil on November 24 was - 8.81 yuan/ton [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 75 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2297 yuan/ton [9] - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rubber on November 24 was - 370 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 29 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.90 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on November 24 was 161.0 yuan/ton [21] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on November 24 was 90 yuan/ton [30] (2) London Market - On November 24, 2025, for LME non - ferrous metals, the LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 24.88 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 24 was - 130 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products such as soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 49 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.88 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 24 was 12.85 [49] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 156 [49]

货 金 融 市场情绪转弱，铝价高位回落 研 究 院 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 南京大学学士 弘 业 期 张天骜 研 究 院 美欧制造业PMI初值低于预期，美国消费者信心指数创历史新低，美联储12月降息预期上升至五成以上，市场情 绪明显好转。今日中日关系仍然紧张，市场关注俄乌系列谈判进展。日内美元上涨人民币小幅下跌，有色金属冲高回 落，市场情绪偏向谨慎。沪铝下跌，伦铝下跌，国内现货铝下跌。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报21380，现货报21360，现货较期货贴水-20点。本周沪铝大跌，现货贴水缩窄至-10 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存平稳，氧化铝库存小幅下降。上期所铝库存上升，现货需求一般。 LME库存稳定，LME现货贴水扩大至-31美元，海外现货需求不佳。人民币汇率本周小幅上涨，铝价沪伦比本周持平于 7.65，内外盘走势大体相当。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油小幅下跌，伦铝小幅下跌，在2803美元附近运行。沪铝今日下跌，收于21380，技术形态 偏弱。沪铝成交上升持仓下降，市场情绪偏向谨慎。本周国内电解铝社会库存上 ...

2025年11月24日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五贵金属价格震荡，伦敦金冲高回落依旧未能站稳 4100 美元。 基本面：美联储"三把手"纽约联储行长威廉姆斯称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期 12 月降息概率盘中 突破 70%美国劳工统计局取消 10 月 CPI 发布，11 月 CPI 12 月 18 日发，不含环比涨幅；美国 11 月标普全 球综合 PMI 初值为 54.8，四个月来最高，服务业 PMI 增长加快，制造业 PMI 增长放缓。欧元区 11 月服务业 PMI 初值 53.1 创一年半新高，但制造业 PMI 初值 49.7，意外重回荣枯线下方，德法制造业双双恶化；日本 批准 21.3 万亿日元经济刺激计划，为疫情以来最大规模。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1148.7 吨，减少 0.1 吨；上期所黄金库存 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨；上期所白 银库存 519 吨，减少 16 吨；金交所白银库存上周库存 774 吨，减少 47 吨，COMEX 白银库存 14327 吨，减 少增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 24, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, alumina, nickel, tin, rebar, methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year Treasury bond futures will probably oscillate widely; aluminum, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, PVC, and glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thirty - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures will probably oscillate weakly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 24, 2025, index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4457 and 4511 points, and support levels are 4400 and 4369 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2968 and 2994 points, and support levels are 2979 and 2963 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 6872 and 6970 points, and support levels are 6700 and 6622 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7116 and 7211 points, and support levels are 6956 and 6900 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to oscillate widely on November 24, 2025, with support levels at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 115.4 and 115.2 yuan, and resistance levels at 116.0 and 116.1 yuan [2][3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 939.6 and 945.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 930.0 and 926.9 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 1244 and 12163 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11680 and 11649 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, alumina, nickel, and tin futures are likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 86500 and 86800 yuan/ton, with support levels at 85600 and 85200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil, soda ash, fuel oil, PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels of 441 and 433 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 450 and 453 yuan/barrel [3][4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4][6]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Events**: The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. China announced relevant initiatives, and leaders had bilateral meetings. The US is promoting a peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but negotiations have not reached an agreement [8][9][13]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [10][12]. - **Domestic Policies**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support enterprises in Xiongan New Area. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promotes urban renewal and urban management in communities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducts typical case collection [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 21, 2025, index futures showed a weak downward trend. Multiple factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the AI bubble led to the recent market correction, but Chinese assets are still expected to have a "slow bull" [18][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 21, 2025, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the short - term downward pressure on the ten - year Treasury bond futures slightly increased [43]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 21, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a downward trend. The short - term downward pressure increased, but in November, they are expected to oscillate strongly [49][55]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures showed a downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [60][64][72]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Energy and chemical futures showed different trends on November 21, 2025. For example, lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the short - term downward pressure increased [80]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Agricultural futures showed a weak downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [125][127][130].