2025年11月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续承压 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 13 | 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 27 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

20251127申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能区间波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量延 | | | 锌 | 续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车 产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，总 | 可能区间波 动 | | | 体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱：l ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to recover, while both domestic stocks and bonds are weak. The US economic data shows structural differentiation, with the market pricing an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. In China, policies aim to boost consumption, but the A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile, aluminum prices are expected to be favorable, alumina will continue its weak trend, and other metals and industrial products also have their respective market trends based on supply - demand and macro - economic factors [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: US data is structurally differentiated. Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.96 million. Durable goods and core capital goods orders in September increased by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumption and stagnant economic activity. The market prices an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut, with the US dollar index falling and copper, gold, and crude oil prices rising [2]. - Domestic: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to develop e - commerce and integrate AI into the consumer goods industry. The A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. The 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields are 1.83% and 2.19% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures soared 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Weak US economic data and the possible Fed chair change support interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a December interest rate cut is 85%. Short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Platinum and palladium futures can be bought at low prices [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper futures rose, and LME copper approached the $11,000 resistance level. The spot market had weak trading. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumer spending and rising input costs. US PPI data is mild, and overseas institutions predict a decline in core PCE. Chile's Codelco raised the long - term copper price for China in 2026. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with resistance at $11,000 - $11,200 [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, and LME aluminum rose 2.25%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased. US economic data shows labor market resilience but also potential weakness. The market's expectation of Fed easing remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to be favorable [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, alumina futures fell 0.37%. The supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the oversupply suppresses prices. The futures price is below the average cost, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, cast aluminum alloy futures fell slightly. The aluminum price has stabilized, and the cast aluminum market is in a state of stop - falling and shock. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost provides good support [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc futures rose at night. The spot market was weak. The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US reduced interest rate cut expectations, but the UK's tax - increase plan weakened the US dollar, which is beneficial to zinc prices. The supply pressure is gradually improving, but the market lacks the power for continuous rise, and zinc prices are expected to be widely volatile [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead futures were weakly volatile. The decline of LME lead dragged down Shanghai lead. The reopening of the lead ingot import window suppresses prices, but cost support and regional supply shortages limit the decline. Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin futures rose at night. The weakening of the US dollar and the political instability in the DRC support tin prices. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low, and inventory is expected to increase. With the approaching Fed meeting, the market sentiment may fluctuate, so be cautious about chasing up prices [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon futures were narrowly volatile. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices were widely volatile. The raw material prices rose, and the main contract has switched to 2605. The market has a strong long - short game, and lithium prices are expected to be widely volatile [17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices were volatile. The market expects an 82% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. The spot market has good inquiry enthusiasm but limited trading volume. The macro - environment may boost nickel prices in the short - term [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, soda ash futures were volatile, and glass futures were strongly volatile. The supply of glass is shrinking, but the demand is weak, and inventories are rising. The supply of soda ash is tightening, but the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Prices are expected to be low and volatile [19]. 3.14 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rebounded. The cost is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures were adjusted. The demand is weak due to steel mill losses and production cuts. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [22]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures were weakly volatile. The online auction of coking coal had a high flow - rate, and the spot price was weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [23]. 3.17 Industrial Data - The report provides trading data of various metal futures on November 26, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. It also shows the changes in inventory, spot prices, and other data of different metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. [24][25][28]

行业 锌期货日报 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22350 | 22355 | 22410 | 22280 | 15 | 0.07 | 26315 | -7427 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | | | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | | 5月-1月 | | | 9月-1月 | | 9月-5月 | | 2025/11/26 | 17 . | 6 | 0 . | 0 | | | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/25 | 21 . | 6 | 0 . | 0 | | | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/24 | 32 . | 6 | 0 . | 0 | | | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/21 | 32 . | 6 | 0 . | 0 | | | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/20 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 | . | | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2 ...

数据显示，11月26日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价22400.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（22355.00元/吨） 升水45.0元/吨。 11月25日，上期所锌期货仓单73819吨，环比上个交易日增加922吨。 （11月26日）全国锌价格一览表 分析观点： | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22450元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22450元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22190元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | 火炬 0#锌 | 22650元/吨 | 市场价 | 浙江省/金华市 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | 飞龙 0#锌 | 22500元/吨 | 市场价 | 浙江省/台州市 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | 红鹭 0#锌 | 22500元/吨 | ...

20251126申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 可能偏强 | | | 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱：liye@syw ...

4、美联储理事米兰表示，经济需要大幅降息，货币政策正在拖累经济，美联储应该尽快将利率降至中 性水平。 文字早评 2025/11/26 星期三 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： 股指 【行情资讯】 1、外交部：中美元首通话是美方发起的通话氛围是积极的、友好的、建设性的； 2、离岸、在岸人民币均升破 7.09 触及逾一年盘中新高； 3、阿里巴巴公告，2026 财年第二季度财报营收 2,478.0 亿元，同比增长 4.8%；云智能集团收入 398.2 亿元，同比增长 34%。阿里巴巴称，未来三年内不太可能出现人工智能泡沫； IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.39%/-0.74%/-1.03%/-2.02%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.79%/-1.55%/-3.14%/-6.09%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.08%/-2.02%/-4.08%/-7.23%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.30%/-0.47%/-0.48%/-0.77%。 【策略观点】 经过近期的持续下跌后，指数有望阶段性企稳。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长 仍是市场主线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤 | | （元/吨） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | 5月-1月 | | | 9月-1月 | | 9月-5月 | | 2025/11/25 | 21 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/24 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/21 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/20 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/19 | 32 . | 6 | 0 0 . | | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 Investment Consulting Business Qualification： CSRC License [2012] No. 669 China Commodity Futures Cross-Border Arbitrage Weekly Report 中国商品期货跨境套利周报 November 25, 2025 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi CFA PhD 从业资格号 ：F3023159 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013632 Investment consulting No. 姜婧 Jiang Jing CFA 从业资格号：F3018552 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013315 Investment consulting No. 王含章 Wang Hanzhang 从业资格号：F03121254 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0022985 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本 ...