1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity atmosphere is warm, which provides support for metal prices, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to factors such as the US copper tariff and overseas trade uncertainties [2][4]. - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum are affected by inventory changes and industrial conditions; lead and zinc are influenced by supply and demand balances and macro - monetary policies; tin and nickel are affected by production and downstream demand; and the prices of lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also subject to various factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.43% to $9678/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78260 yuan/ton. The price oscillated and rebounded [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1150 to 122150 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 to 4.2 million tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere is warm, but the US copper tariff expectation brings risks. The copper raw material shortage persists, but the marginal impact weakens. The price rebound is expected to be weak. The operation range of SHFE copper is 77500 - 78800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9550 - 9760 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum rose 0.52% to $2589/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20520 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is warm, but overseas trade is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the supply is expected to increase. The short - term price increase drive is weak, and it mainly rebounds with the commodity atmosphere. The operation range of SHFE aluminum is 20300 - 20650 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2550 - 2620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 0.28% to 16864 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 12 to 1974 dollars/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus. The domestic lead price is expected to run weakly [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22109 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 2697 dollars/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 9.35 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate due to the strong overall commodity atmosphere [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price oscillated [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the short - term tin price is expected to oscillate weakly. The operation range of domestic tin price is 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin price is 31000 - 35000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price oscillated [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The ferro - nickel price is expected to follow the decline of the ore price. The nickel price has a certain short - selling cost - performance, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index rose 0.78%, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.32% [13]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The production increased by 1.6% to 19115 tons, and the inventory increased by 1.3% to 142620 tons [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side disturbances are frequent. The operation range of the LC2509 contract is 66200 - 69500 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.48% to 3079 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The mineral price is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the alumina over - capacity pattern remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.47% to 12730 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 114.78 million tons [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Although it is the traditional off - season, the market activity has increased after the price bottomed out. The price is expected to rise slightly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.18% to 19845 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 0.03 million tons to 2.83 million tons [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The price has a large upward resistance [21].