Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "quantity" over "price" in understanding macroeconomic changes, particularly in the context of U.S. policies and their impact on global trade and China's exports [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Policies and Imports - The relationship between U.S. new policies and imports is critical, with a focus on fiscal debt reduction, increased household savings, and reduced corporate financing as key factors influencing trade deficits [4]. - Current conditions suggest that U.S. import growth will not be lower than last year, despite uncertainties surrounding fiscal policies and consumer behavior [4][5]. Group 2: China's Exports - The article discusses the impact of U.S. imports on China's exports, highlighting two types of risks: beta risk (overall decline in global demand due to U.S. tariff increases) and alpha risk (reduction in China's share of U.S. imports) [5]. - The forecast for China's export growth ranges from -5% to 0%, with specific quarterly projections indicating fluctuations in growth rates [5][7]. Group 3: Employment and Output - A 1% shock in exports could potentially affect approximately 1.053 million jobs, emphasizing the link between export performance and employment levels [9]. - The article notes that stable employment is crucial for maintaining economic growth, as indicated by recent government discussions on employment stability [9]. Group 4: Fiscal and Financial Policies - Fiscal spending is projected to require an increase of 1.1 to 2.1 trillion yuan to support economic growth, with a focus on major projects and capital injections [10]. - The financial sector is expected to see an increase in credit expansion, with non-bank financing projected to rise significantly in 2024 [13]. Group 5: Consumption and Investment - Consumption patterns are shifting, with a focus on low-income groups and the impact of subsidies on spending behavior [14]. - Investment strategies are evolving from traditional infrastructure expansion to more technology-driven and equipment-focused investments [14]. Group 6: Export Strategies - The article outlines strategies for enhancing exports through diversification in product categories, trade practices, and partnerships, particularly with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [15][16]. Group 7: Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is around 5%, with specific quarterly growth rates projected [38]. - Inflationary pressures are expected to be slightly higher than in 2024, with fixed asset investment growth anticipated to slow down [38].