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五一假期海外市场:强非农再压降息预期
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-05 06:33
Economic Indicators - The US GDP for Q1 2025 recorded a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.3%, compared to an expected -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[1] - The core PCE price index for Q1 2025 increased by 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.1% and the previous 2.6%[1] - The core GDP, reflecting internal economic momentum, grew by 3% in Q1 2025, indicating resilience despite the negative headline GDP[1] Employment Data - The US added 177,000 non-farm jobs in April 2025, surpassing the expected 138,000 and a revised previous value of 185,000[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both expectations and the previous rate[2] - The labor participation rate increased to 62.6%, slightly above the expected 62.5%[2] Market Reactions - The market's risk appetite improved, with expectations for a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve pushed to July 2025[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 2.92% and 3.42%, respectively, recovering losses from early April 2025[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 7.3 basis points to 4.308%, while the 2-year yield rose by 7.6 basis points to 3.824%[3] Trade and Policy Developments - Recent signals from the White House indicate a softening of tariffs, with measures to alleviate the burden on domestic auto manufacturers[3] - The US Trade Representative suggested that a preliminary trade agreement could be reached in a matter of weeks, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions[3]