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利润37亿估值13.5万亿?美国GDP的虚高骗局,中国已反超15万亿?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-15 10:14
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the reported GDP of the United States, currently at $29.2 trillion, is inflated due to the statistical methods used, which prioritize financial transactions over actual economic value creation [1][3]. Group 1: GDP Calculation Method - The U.S. employs the expenditure method for GDP calculation, counting all financial transactions regardless of their actual value creation [3]. - Notable examples include the inclusion of ambulance costs and legal settlements in GDP figures, which do not reflect real economic productivity [3]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. Hard Indicators - Despite a significant GDP increase from $21.5 trillion in 2019 to $29.2 trillion in 2024 (a 35.8% rise), hard indicators such as electricity consumption have only grown by 4.9% during the same period [5]. - U.S. automobile sales have declined from 17.1 million to 16.03 million over five years, indicating a lack of real consumer spending power [7]. Group 3: Price Inflation and Economic Bubbles - The article highlights rampant price inflation in consumer goods, with items like toilet paper and washing liquid seeing price increases of over 100% since 2019 [7]. - The construction costs of infrastructure projects in the U.S. are significantly higher than in China, indicating a bubble in the U.S. economy [9]. Group 4: Stock Market Valuation - The total market capitalization of U.S. stocks has reached $68 trillion, exceeding 218% of GDP, which is significantly above the 200% threshold considered safe by Warren Buffett [11]. - The AI sector alone accounts for $22 trillion of this market cap, driven by a closed-loop investment cycle among major tech companies [13]. Group 5: Comparison with China - China uses a production method for GDP calculation, focusing on the net value of new production, which provides a more accurate reflection of economic activity [15]. - China's GDP grew from $14.4 trillion in 2019 to $18.94 trillion in 2024, with a 31.53% increase, and electricity consumption rose by 42%, indicating a more robust economic growth [17]. Group 6: Economic Stability - The article posits that the U.S. economy is overly reliant on statistical manipulation and financial speculation, which could lead to a collapse of perceived wealth [22]. - In contrast, China's economy is grounded in real production and tangible outputs, providing a more stable foundation amid global economic fluctuations [22].