制造、量子科技、生物制造、芯片、新材料和核聚变六大领域。这些领域与中国"十五五"规 划中的重点产业高度重叠，预示着两大经济体之间的竞争与合作并存。 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 这一判断得到了丹麦著名科技投资人Lars Tvede的验证。他认为，世界正经历史上技术扩散 最快的阶段，AI的影响力已显现在实际的生产活动中。他预计，未来五年有效算力有望增长至 当前的约180万倍，这将催生包括个人AI、具身智能在内的广泛应用，到2050年，按模型推 算的AI认知处理量将达到全人类大脑合计的约5000万倍，并可能承担绝大多数人类白领与体 力工作。Lars Tvede也指出，尽管AI领域的投资存在局部过热，但基于健康的公司财务状 况、有利的宏观背景和相对合理的估值，他将当前阶段视为由强大基本面驱动的前瞻性投 资，而非泡沫。 2026年伊始，全球经济延续激荡的 "分化"与"重塑"，AI浪潮正从资本开支迈入应用落地关键 期，全球再工业化驱动大规模财政投入与制造业回流，重塑供应链格局。国内经济方面，"十 五五"规划的开局之年，围绕发展新质生产力，经济的高质量发展进一步落地见效。 投资者如何在宏观变革的大潮中，寻求结构性的投资机遇，天 ...

回到市场表现，聂挺进表示，2025年，居民资金通过多渠道入市、险资提高权益持股比例、关键资金维稳，形成了多方资金共振的A股行情。2026年，中国 经济结构性亮点仍然突出，有利于主被动公募、私募基金持股比例进一步提升，与主题投资和成长趋势投资共振；保险资金、银行理财资金持续流入，为市 场风险偏好提供支撑。 具体投资方向上，AI的投资逻辑正在从"硬"向"软"和"应用"两端延伸。聂挺进认为，目前的投资重点集中于算力芯片和基础设施，而未来将更多地向AI软 件、端侧智能体应用以及支撑算力爆发的底层绿色能源与电力设备领域扩展。 天弘基金的基金经理张磊进一步分析科技的投资机会。他认为，AI投资重心正从追逐算力硬件向需求侧验证与国产化突破延伸。 "2026年应重点关注三个方向。"张磊称，一是国产算力芯片的性能提升与产能改善；二是半导体设备厂商的基本面改善、存储环节的扩产加速；三是国内AI 应用端出现爆款的可能性。这标志着AI投资进入更务实、更深入的阶段。 此外，全球再工业化直接拉动了对先进制造全产业链的广泛需求。聂挺进强调，这一趋势将带动工业金属之王"铜"的需求，并进一步扩散至锂、钴、铝、镍 等其他工业和能源金属，估值合理的 ...

1月8日早盘，三大指数低开，算力芯片逆势走强，接棒半导体设备成今日最强板块之一。截至发稿，海光信息大涨超10%，寒武纪涨超3%；光刻胶概念南 大光电继续走强，盘中涨超5%；半导体设备板块亦延续强势，金海通涨超7%，联动科技涨超5%，芯源微、中芯国际、中微公司、珂玛科技等多股拉升。 对以上个股全面覆盖的半导体设备ETF（561980）涨超1.6%规模28.82亿元，规模、净值均创上市以来新高！据了解，该指数跟踪中证半导，权重中半导体 设备（61%）、材料（18%）、芯片设计（海光信息、寒武纪合计含量超14%）三行业合计占比超90%，在半导体指数中首屈一指。 据世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）预测，2026年全球半导体市场规模有望达到9750亿美元，同比增长超25%。增长动力主要来源于两大引擎： 一是AI算力革命：生成式AI推动高端芯片需求持续爆发； 分析认为，半导体设备、算力芯片接连走强主要来源于全球半导体"超级周期开启"与国产芯片"国产替代深化"两大核心罕见共振。 一、技术迭代拉动设备需求激增 先进制程竞赛与存储芯片升级（如3D NAND堆叠层数突破300层、DRAM向更先进制程演进），大幅提升了刻蚀、薄膜 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the historical trend of "stronger getting stronger" in the U.S. stock market, emphasizing that leading technology companies represent the capital mapping of the era's productivity [1][13][22] - The current market is experiencing unprecedented "oligopolization," with the top 1% of U.S. companies accounting for 47.5% of total market capitalization, indicating a significant concentration of value among leading firms [2][21] - The report identifies that while technology bubbles are difficult to avoid, they often lay the groundwork for future innovations, with the current AI wave in a critical commercialization validation phase [3][25][28] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 Index is presented as an optimal tool for investing in core technology assets in the A-share market, characterized by high elasticity, concentration, and growth potential [4][30] - The report indicates that the ChiNext 50 Index has shown strong return elasticity, outperforming other indices during growth phases, and has a high concentration in strategic emerging industries [4][31][39] - The underlying companies within the ChiNext 50 Index are noted for their high R&D investment and excellent profitability, providing solid support for long-term growth [4][32][38]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved two models with L3 conditional autonomous driving capabilities, marking the transition of L3 autonomous driving from testing to commercial application in China [2] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, with smart technology becoming a survival necessity for automakers. By 2030, smart vehicle sales in China are projected to exceed 30 million units [2][6] - The evolution of high-level autonomous driving technology is expected to accelerate, with significant breakthroughs anticipated in L4/L5 levels around 2027-2028 [2][13] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Intelligence Transition - Automotive intelligence is moving from an introduction phase to a growth phase, transforming vehicles from traditional fuel-powered tools to AI-driven mobile terminals [6] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles in China is expected to rise from 50% to 80% between 2025 and 2030, with smart technology becoming essential for leading automakers [6] 2. High-Level Autonomous Driving as a Key Technology - High-level autonomous driving (L3-L5) is the main technological development line, with L2+ functionalities becoming widespread and L3 commercial trials beginning [7] - The report highlights the challenges faced in the development of high-level autonomous driving, including regulatory improvements and user acceptance [7] 3. Automotive Industry Chain Overview - The automotive industry chain consists of upstream suppliers providing core components, midstream solution providers integrating systems, and OEM manufacturers responsible for final vehicle performance [22] 4. Upstream Components: Computing Power as a Foundation - Domain controllers are crucial for the evolution of automotive electronic architectures, transitioning from distributed to centralized systems [30] - The demand for high computing power in autonomous driving and cockpit systems is increasing, with SoC chips becoming essential [51] 5. Midstream Vehicle Manufacturing: New Players Leading the Charge - New entrants in the automotive market are leveraging smart technology to gain competitive advantages, with a focus on high-end models priced above 200,000 yuan [2] 6. Downstream Operations: Emergence of New Business Models - The shift towards smart mobility is driving the development of new business models like Robotaxi, with expectations of over 30% penetration in the smart mobility market by 2030 [2][4] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading automakers with full-stack self-research capabilities and component suppliers with technological advantages in high-growth segments [2]

极目新闻记者 吕少峰 2025年最后一个交易日圆满收官，虽然节前最后一个交易日主力资金无心恋战，但A股还是将近十年来最好的记录保持到了最后。截至收盘，上证指数收于 3968.84点，深证成指收于13525.02点，创业板指收于3203.17点，成交量较上一交易日缩量956亿元。 如果进一步细分，"科技创新"的烙印更明显。从概念板块来看，年度涨幅前十的分别为CPO概念（96.59%）、可控核聚变（92.26%）、培育钻石 （79.37%）、超导概念（79.35%）、PEEK材料（79.13%）、人形机器人（77.46%）、光通信（76.53%）、PCB概念（76.03%）、稀缺资源（74.21%）、复 合铜箔（73.63%）。这些细分的概念基本上是股民朋友们津津乐道的"新科技""新能源"赛道。 2025年，A股市场在政策支持、资金流入和产业转型的驱动下，走出了"长牛、慢牛、结构牛"的行情轨迹。综合来看，上证指数全年上涨18.41%，最高突破 4000点，创2015年以来十年新高；深证成指累计上涨29.87%，表现强劲；创业板指以49.57%的涨幅领跑，彰显科技主线的强劲动能；科创板指上涨 35.92%，凸显科技 ...

截至2025年12月31日 13:57，上证科创板100指数上涨0.38%，成分股睿创微纳上涨3.22%。科创100指数 ETF(588030)上涨0.36%，冲击3连涨。最新价报1.39元。拉长时间看，截至2025年12月30日，科创100指 数ETF近1周累计上涨3.91%。 国家发展改革委政策研究室相关负责人表示，我国深入实施"人工智能+"行动，为人工智能算力芯片提 供了广泛应用场景，各类型算力芯片需求增长迅速、创新非常活跃。目前，国产芯片产品在不同场景中 加速适配，应用成效非常好。特别是"超节点"等集群互联技术发展，为国产算力赶上国际领先水平提供 了良好机遇，拓展了广阔发展空间。未来，随着产业链上下游协同持续深化，国产算力水平将不断提 升，为人工智能产业发展提供更加有力的支撑。 此外，工信部等四部门印发《汽车行业数字化转型实施方案》，加速关键环节人工智能应用拓展。支持 企业在研发设计、生产制造、经营管理等环节深度集成人工智能技术，打造汽车行业大模型和丰富智能 体应用，探索在软件与智能化研发、智能工艺规划与虚拟调试等领域打造垂域大模型。组织行业"人工 智能+"应用行动，遴选一批人工智能创新应用标杆案例。 ...

12月31日， 国家发展改革委召开12月份新闻发布会。 发改委：近期批复广州新机场等项目 总投资超4000亿元 国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超表示，发改委近期批复或核准广州新机场、新建湛江 至海口跨海轮渡及相关线路工程等交通设施，辽宁省辽东半岛水资源配置工程、云南省丽江 国家发改委回答证券时报记者提问：国产算力水平有望不断提升，为AI产业提供有力支撑 12月31日，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超在回答证券时报记者提问时表示，我国深 入实施"人工智能+"行动，为人工智能算力芯片提供了广泛应用场景，各类型算力芯片需求增 长迅速、创新非常活跃。目前，国产芯片产品在不同场景中加速适配，应用成效非常好。特 别是"超节点"等集群互联技术发展，为国产算力赶上国际领先水平提供了良好机遇，拓展了 广阔发展空间。未来，随着产业链上下游协同持续深化，国产算力水平将不断提升，为人工 智能产业发展提供更加有力的支撑。 发改委：2026年提前批"两重"项目清单和中央预算内投资已下达 共计约2950亿元 国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超表示，近日，发改委组织下达2026年提前批"两重"建 设项目清单和中央预算内投资计划，共计约2 ...

12月31日，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超表示，我国深入实施"人工智能+"行动，为人工智能 算力芯片提供了广泛应用场景，各类型算力芯片需求增长迅速、创新非常活跃。目前，国产芯片产品在 不同场景中加速适配，应用成效非常好。特别是"超节点"等集群互联技术发展，为国产算力赶上国际领 先水平提供了良好机遇，拓展了广阔发展空间。未来，随着产业链上下游协同持续深化，国产算力水平 将不断提升，为人工智能产业发展提供更加有力的支撑。（证券时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that if the Shanghai Composite Index can close above 4000 points by the end of 2025, it will instill strong confidence in the market, encouraging more incremental capital to enter in the future. The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical stocks, and resource stocks [2][3]. Economic Dimension - The economic landscape is characterized by accelerated structural transformation and the rise of new productive forces. Manufacturing PMI is stabilizing, and retail consumption is recovering. High-end manufacturing sectors like smart devices and new energy vehicles are growing significantly faster than the overall economy, becoming key drivers of new productive forces [5]. Financial Dimension - Valuations are aligning with performance, showing significant horizontal space. Non-financial sectors' net profit grew by 1.04% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with technology sectors like AI (up 19.24%) and semiconductors (up 32.41%) showing remarkable profitability. A-shares are undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, with financial and infrastructure sectors still having safety margins [5]. Policy Dimension - The policy environment is focused on stabilizing expectations and increasing incremental capital. Reforms in the capital market, such as raising the equity investment cap for insurance funds to 50%, and optimizing delisting and dividend mechanisms, are enhancing investment functionality. The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes support for new industries like AI and commercial aerospace [5]. Capital Dimension - Continuous inflow of capital is observed, with insurance funds increasing their equity investments to over 4.7 trillion yuan, adding more than 600 billion yuan in 2025. There is ample room for growth, as evidenced by a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits and a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, with funds entering the market through ETFs and mutual funds [6]. Industry Dimension - The dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors is evident. In technology growth, there is a surge in demand for AI computing power, storage, and commercial aerospace driven by policy support. In cyclical sectors, the supply-demand gap for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is widening, with expectations of a 150,000-ton shortfall in refined copper in 2026 [6]. Company Dimension - Overall profitability is improving, showcasing resilience. Leading companies in innovation-driven sectors, such as CATL, are achieving high capacity utilization rates close to 90%, with technological breakthroughs driving down costs [7]. Outlook for 2026 - Multiple brokerages express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a continuation of the slow bull market. The core driving logic is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit support, with anticipated earnings growth of 5% to 12% [9][10]. The recovery of PPI is seen as a key factor that will drive nominal GDP growth and improve overall profitability in the market [11]. Key Investment Themes - Key investment themes include technology growth led by AI and hard technology, with a focus on areas like optical modules and computing chips. The cyclical and resource sectors are also expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with industrial metals and energy sectors showing potential for cash flow improvement and high dividend yields [12].