美联储周三公布的9月议息会议纪要显示，尽管多数联储官员预计今年年内还将降息两次，但决策者内 部就未来降息路径仍存在分歧。关注通胀上行风险是联储官员的共识，有数名官员支持年内不再进一步 降息。纪要公布后，市场仍预计美联储将在本月底的议息会议上再次降息25个基点，但对12月降息25个 基点的预期概率降至80%。美元指数周三上涨，反弹至两个月来高位。 8日美股热门芯片股和AI概念股显著上涨 8日欧洲三大股指集体收涨 投资者周三继续聚焦AI基础设施投资热潮，英伟达公司总裁兼首席执行官黄仁勋当天接受采访时表 示，AI行业发展对算力的需求巨大，算力芯片供不应求，并称英伟达已参与投资马斯克旗下人工智能 公司xAI，英伟达股价收涨2.2%。多家投行上调戴尔科技股票目标价，分析师普遍预计该公司的企业级 AI服务器业务在未来将实现可观的收入和利润增长，戴尔科技股价大幅收涨9.05%。超威半导体 （AMD）与OpenAI达成芯片采购以及股权合作协议后，股价连续三日大涨，周三收涨11.37%，再创收 盘历史新高。 转自：央视财经 当地时间周三，以芯片股和AI概念股为主的科技股推动美股走高。不过，美国联邦政府"停摆"超过一 周，部分投 ...

固态&泛半导体变化梳理 20251008 摘要 固态电池领域，中小型公募机构资金涌入，工信部中期审查结果将引领 未来增速，头部大厂扩产计划受关注。选股应关注增量价值、竞争格局 和供应链企业。 半导体设备行业迎来资本开支向上拐点，存储涨价和先进制程突破是关 键。应优先考虑行业增长、国产化率低且市占率提升潜力大的方向。 固态电池技术攻坚和产品实现预计在 2025 年，2026 年进入产线建设 及供应链确认阶段，2027 年有望量产。2030 年需求或达 200- 300GWh。 固态电池生产设备相比液态电池有显著变化，前段和中段核心增量在于 干法设备和等加压设备，全固态生产线 CAPEX 预计是液态的五倍以上。 固态电池材料端最大增量来自电解质，其他环节产品升级也将拉动 ASP 提升。硫化锂的工艺路线选择需关注纯度、碳含量、颗粒度和金属杂质 等维度。 国内晶圆厂产能利用率持续提升，已达近三年高位，晶圆厂上市及再融 资进展顺利，为后续扩产提供资金保障。存储产品价格自 2025 年 9 月 起持续上涨。 国内算力芯片市场受多重催化，晶圆厂商如中芯国际 N+2 制程已可用 DUV 光刻机实现等效 7 纳米制程，并验证低 ...

美股那边，听说是不太稳当，那个科技股吧，可真是不得了，带着纳斯达克和标普往上冲，一天一个新高，脸上也有光，可是道琼斯就有点拉胯，死活起不 来，天天在那儿跌跌撞撞的，你说气不气人，所有人都觉得她以后不得了，可是就在那种环境下。谁能受得了。 欧股就更别提了，一片绿油油的，跌的，搞得人心惶惶的，英国的富时一百还好点儿，挣扎了一下，最后还是没起来，德国的还行，在那儿磨磨蹭蹭的，法 国的那个就惨了，直接往下跳，那跌的，看着都吓人。 不过，话说回来，我们A股好像有点盼头了，这休市的时候，外面的市场涨的还挺多，跌的少，算是个好兆头吧，而且，那个芯片算力什么的，最近好像特 别火，都在说A股要跟着一块儿涨，也不知道真的假的，反正大家都这么说，希望是真的吧。 大家都在想，这到底是怎么一回事。很多人看完这个故事，都会去想。 中概股 那个科技巨头，最近也是新闻可多了，特别是那个算力芯片，AMD算是出尽了风头，跟OPEN AI好像搞了个大项目，六吉瓦的订单，听着就让人兴奋，一 下子股价就暴涨，涨的那个劲头，真是没谁了，还有那个超微半导体，也跟着沾光，其他的半导体公司也都不错，除了英伟达，不知道怎么一回事，竟然还 跌了，有点奇怪，特斯拉 ...

今早刷新闻，一眼瞅见商务部那则反歧视调查的公告，手里咖啡差点没端稳 —— 这美国今年跟芯片杠上了吧？年初卡 AI 芯片出口，九月又把设计、制造、连材料环节都圈进调查里，这绳子勒得也太紧了点！说实话啊，我倒不是怕制裁本身， 就是看全球供应链那慌慌张张的样儿，跟多米诺骨牌似的，碰一下倒一片，真有点哭笑不得。 美国想靠关税和禁令，把产业链往自己那边拽，这点心思谁看不出来啊？可他们忘了芯片制造有多复杂 —— 不是说搬个工 厂、招几个人就能解决的。三星、台积电就算在美设厂，芯片造出来还得运到海外封装，来回折腾不说，搞不好还得被重 复征税。我之前刷到个数据，美国一年要进口几百亿美元的芯片，好多还是自己企业海外工厂造的，这波操作简直是给自 己挖坑，还得自己跳！ 最让我意外的是中国这边的反应。一开始我还以为，咱们也就被动应对下，后来才发现，早就在偷偷布局了！芯片进口量 是降了，但买设备的钱反而涨了 —— 这明摆着是要自己搞研发啊！北方华创的刻蚀机都能突破 14 纳米工艺了，寒武纪的 算力芯片也能跟英伟达掰掰手腕。商务部这次发起反歧视调查，更像是吹响了反击的号角，总算把主动权抢回来点，看着 还挺解气的。 不过话说回来，供应链恐 ...

Group 1 - In the third quarter, nearly 3,000 listed companies in the A-share market received institutional research, with over 400 institutions focusing on the leading robotics company, Huichuan Technology [1][3] - The focus of institutional research is on companies in the "hard technology" sectors, including integrated circuits, electronic components, and application software [3] - Huichuan Technology plans to invest 8% to 10% of its revenue in R&D, emphasizing software development to address domestic shortcomings and expand into overseas markets [3] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly AI, remains a key focus in the A-share market, with expectations for continued growth in the computer industry through Q3 2025 [4] - Institutions suggest focusing on AI applications and computing power in Q4, including management software, office software, computing chips, servers, cloud vendors, and smart driving [4] - Upstream capital expenditure in AI is expected to benefit sectors like servers and data centers, while caution is advised for communication and chip leaders in the short term [4]

黄奇帆 中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆市原市长 近日，重庆市原市长黄奇帆在2025·青岛创投风投大会上发表了题为《围绕生产性服务业投早投小投长期》的主题演讲。 黄奇帆认为，从国际衡量资本市场成熟度的指标来看，我国资本市场仍有较大的成长空间，把资本市场搞好也是我国推动金融强国建设的一个核心内容。 中国的资本市场总量今年初是70多万亿人民币，现在已经达到100万亿。中国GDP今年会达到140万亿。 我们的资本市场目前占GDP比例只有70%，还有 较大的成长空间。 我们即将进入到十五五规划和2040远景目标期。到2040年中国GDP会翻一番，按不变价格核算，从现在的约140万亿增长到280万亿。如果按可变价核算， 到2040年中国的GDP总量会达到350万亿左右。如果股票市场占GDP的100%-120%， 意味着15年后我国股票市场总量有可能在400万亿左右，较现在100万 亿的水平翻两番。 这是我国发展金融强国的内在目标之一。我们应该在15年后让国民经济的证券化率达到100%，这是推动金融强国建设的一个核心内容。它可以推动社会 资源优化配置，包括支持高科技独角兽企业健康发展；促进老百姓多渠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities anticipates steady growth in the computer industry revenue by Q3 2025, continuing the trend observed in the first half of the year, driven by sustained computing power demand and an inflection point in applications [1] Group 1: AI Opportunities - It is recommended to seize opportunities along the "AI mainline" in Q4 2025, focusing on AI applications and computing power sectors such as office/management software, computing chips, servers, cloud vendors, and autonomous driving [1] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The report also suggests considering structural opportunities in areas like trusted computing, fintech innovation, and cyclical recovery, including industrial software, foundational software, and internet financial software [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the gaming sector driven by strong performance, favorable policies, and AI advancements, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins [19][21][20] - The report indicates that the semiconductor market is experiencing growth, with global sales increasing significantly, particularly in China [33][34] - The report emphasizes the recovery of the securities industry, achieving the best operating performance since 2016, with substantial revenue and profit growth [28][29][30] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,862.53, with a daily increase of 0.90%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.05% to 13,479.43 [3] - The report notes that the average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 15.72 and 50.62, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [10][12] Industry Analysis - The gaming sector has shown a 28.36% increase in revenue, with a 75% rise in net profit, reflecting strong market demand and effective cost management [21][20] - The semiconductor industry in China reported a sales figure of $170.2 billion, marking a 10.4% year-on-year increase, indicating robust growth in this sector [33] - The securities industry has seen a 23.47% increase in revenue and a 40.37% increase in net profit in the first half of 2025, driven by improved market conditions and increased trading activity [28][29] Policy and Economic Developments - The report mentions the introduction of new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting project capital, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [5][9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a target for the machinery industry to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of around 3.5% from 2025 to 2026 [5][9] Sector-Specific Insights - The report indicates that the new materials sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 4.46% increase in the new materials index, suggesting strong demand and growth potential [32][35] - The livestock sector is experiencing price differentiation, with pig prices declining significantly while chicken prices have shown some recovery, indicating varying market dynamics within the agricultural sector [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's capital market has significant growth potential, as indicated by the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, which currently stands at 70%, suggesting room for expansion [6][11]. Group 1: Capital Market Maturity - A hard indicator for assessing a country's capital market maturity is the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, ideally between 1:1 and 1:1.2. A ratio below 1:1 indicates underdevelopment, while a ratio above 1:1.2 suggests potential bubbles [6]. - China's capital market total was over 70 trillion RMB at the beginning of the year and has reached 100 trillion RMB, with a GDP of approximately 140 trillion RMB, resulting in a market-to-GDP ratio of 70% [6][11]. - By 2040, China's GDP is projected to double, potentially leading to a stock market total of around 400 trillion RMB if the market-to-GDP ratio reaches 100%-120% [6][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article advocates for early, small, long-term investments in hard technology, aligning with recent government encouragement for venture capital and private equity to adjust their investment focus [7][8]. - Currently, about 40% of the total 30 trillion RMB in venture capital is invested in low-risk fixed-income assets, which distorts the intended investment direction [7]. - The ideal investment approach should start at the early stages of company development, focusing on transformative investments as companies grow [8]. Group 3: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is crucial for driving innovation and efficiency in manufacturing, serving as a foundation for high-value unicorn companies [9][12]. - This sector includes ten major categories, such as hard technology R&D, logistics, supply chain finance, and digital services, which are essential for enhancing productivity and economic growth [9][10]. - The productive service industry has shown a significant growth rate of 12.1% from 2021 to 2023, outpacing other sectors and contributing to GDP growth [10][12]. Group 4: Unicorn Companies and Investment Focus - The article highlights that many unicorn companies globally are rooted in the productive service industry, with a significant portion of their market value derived from this sector [12][13]. - Major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft exemplify how productive service industries can drive high margins and value creation, often outsourcing manufacturing while controlling the service aspects [13][14]. - Investment should target various categories of productive service companies, including small specialized firms and established leaders in the sector, to foster growth and innovation [15][17].

Group 1: Technology Stock Volatility - The A-share technology sector experienced significant volatility influenced by overseas market performance and industry events, with a notable partnership between OpenAI and Lixun Precision, and Nvidia's announcement of a potential investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, leading to a rise in the Nasdaq index [1][13] - The latter part of the week saw a shift to a risk-off sentiment, with macroeconomic concerns raised by Powell regarding the overvaluation of US stocks and the risk of a government shutdown, alongside investor worries about the "ONO" alliance potentially leading to a bubble [1][3][15] - The "ONO" alliance, which creates a closed loop of large models, cloud infrastructure, and computing chips, raises questions about OpenAI's profitability, with projections indicating a loss exceeding $5 billion in 2025, highlighting the uncertainty in monetizing AI applications [3][14] Group 2: A-share Technology Sector Indicators - The A-share technology TMT sector entered an overheated zone in August, but has since shown signs of digestion, with sentiment indicators indicating reduced short-term trading risks [4][20] - Forward PE (FY2) estimates for the technology TMT sector are expected to rise, stabilizing at a higher level by the end of September 2024, with a second increase anticipated by August 2025, indicating ongoing upward momentum but with uncertainty regarding the sustainability of this trend [4][20] Group 3: Market Performance and Policy Events - The A-share market maintained a high-level fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index staying above 3,800 points and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious sentiment ahead of the National Day holiday [6][26] - The technology sector led gains, particularly in semiconductor equipment, influenced by strong earnings from Changchuan Technology, while financial sectors showed signs of stabilization after previous declines [6][35] - The performance of the A-share indices varied, with the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index showing notable increases, while the Northbound 50 and CSI 2000 lagged behind [6][29]