[Table_MAIn] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 相关研究 AI"信仰"Vs 城投"信仰" [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 近期市场围绕着是否应该坚持"AI 信仰"反复博弈，本文我们抛开硬核的技术领 域，从宏观角度谈谈"AI 信仰"问题，为了更方便地理解，我们选取了一个参照系 ——城投，因为从商业模式本质上，"AI 信仰"与"城投信仰"有着诸多相似之处： 第一，"要想富，先修路"的发展逻辑。城投是为大规模城市化建设的主体，城市 建设的第一步就是土地开发、修桥架路，这相当于 AI 巨头囤卡、铺 AI 服务器、建 数据中心，这就是大人工智能领域的基建投资。在城投分析框架中，先行指标是城 市规划面积、项目总投资额等，在 AI 分析框架中，先行指标是计划建设 AI 服务器 和数据中心的数量、大厂的资本开支金额等。在这一步，最先受益的都是"卖铲子" 的，城投逻辑中是钢筋水泥建材等，依据项目投资额能算业绩弹性，AI 逻辑中核 心是算力芯片、存储、CPO 等，也是根据资本开支算业绩弹性。正因如此，大家 对英伟达的担心，一方面是 AI 是否泡沫过大，行业资本开支无法继续 ...

1、行情 今天走出了较为割裂的缩量行情。 题材方面，AI硬件集体大涨，OCS、CPO、PCB、算力芯片、服务器等均局部大涨，个股不再赘述； 流感、医药商业板块开盘续涨，广济药业3连板，金迪克（20CM）、北大医药2连板，粤万年青（20CM）、华人健康（20CM）、海王生物、 泰达股份、人民同泰纷纷涨停； 东芯股份午后单边大涨拿下20CM涨停，寒武纪、工业富联双双大幅反弹。 也正是在上述这些老哥们的努力下，推动指数大涨，尤其是创业板一度涨超3%。 指数的分时黄白线从10点前开始，逐渐形成"鸭子张嘴"的背离走势。 这让诸多股民再度体验到了：指数岁月静好，现实支离破碎！ 绝大部分股票午后就跟失去生命体征一样，连续小碎步往下走。 即使上周大跌的行情，我都没感觉这么令人想yue…… AI硬件：你们的下跌固然可怕，但我们的大涨更令人揪心？ 3、消费 零售板块早盘冲高回落，但在尾盘受消息刺激爆拉，茂业商业2连板，广百股份、居然智家、遥望科技、东百集团、三江购物、国光连锁先后涨 停； 此外，海南、航天、深圳本地股等均有局部强势表现，军工、水产养殖、两岸概念等集体大跌。 截至收盘，沪指微跌0.15%，深成指、创业板指分别收涨1 ...

Core Insights - The electronic industry is undergoing a critical transition driven by AI, shifting from computing infrastructure to application implementation by 2026 [1] - Overall industry valuation is considered high, necessitating a shift in investment logic from valuation expansion to profit realization [1] - Key opportunities are identified in three main areas: semiconductors, consumer electronics, and components [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid growth, with expectations for continued trends into 2026 [2] - Key focus areas include the trend of domestic computing power localization, the impact of AI on consumer electronics, and the significant demand for storage chips driven by computing needs [2] - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is entering a new growth cycle due to AI and high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand [2] Consumer Electronics - Major consumer electronics brands are embracing AI, with expectations for accelerated development in AI edge applications by 2026 [3] - Opportunities for valuation enhancement are seen in smartphone manufacturers as AI traffic entry points and in the rapid growth of smart imaging devices [3] - Investment opportunities are also identified in components related to AI glasses, AI headphones, and the upgrade of large-end devices [3] Components and Devices - The demand for printed circuit boards (PCBs) is expected to remain high due to AI, with leading manufacturers actively expanding production [4] - The global CSP manufacturers are increasing investments in AI, driving high demand for multi-layer PCBs and HDI products [4] - Opportunities in passive components focus on chip inductors and tantalum capacitors, while optical components are driven by the upgrade of smart phone optics and the proliferation of new consumer electronics [4]

科创板50指数由科创板中市值大、流动性好的50只股票组成，聚焦"硬科技"龙头，其中数字芯片设计与 集成电路制造行业合计占比超50%；中证半导体材料设备主题指数则更加聚焦半导体设备与半导体材料 领域，相关成分股合计权重约80%。科创板50ETF（588080）、半导体设备ETF易方达（159558）分别 跟踪以上指数，可助力投资者便捷布局半导体产业链。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 市场午后整体走强，存储芯片、半导体设备等方向上扬。截至14:45，科创板50指数上涨0.8%，中证半 导体材料设备主题指数上涨2.4%。 中国银河证券指出，头部互联网厂商资本开支预计仍将保持较快增长，Trendforce在11月6日上修对头部 互联网厂商今明两年资本支出的预计，达到2025年4306亿美元（+65%）、2026年6020亿美元 （+40%），支撑未来对算力芯片的需求。 ...

调整之后，面向 2026 年哪些产业值得关注？20251123 摘要 中国经济发展重心转向高质量发展，强调通过技术创新实现产业链自主 可控，并积极拓展多边合作以突破地缘政治限制，寻找新的增长点。 国产算力芯片全链条自主可控是 AI 能力闭环的核心，2025 年芯片领域 已现超额收益。2026 年，芯片全产业链技术封锁突破及本土产能建设 至关重要，相关公司如盛合晶微等推进上市，有望享受估值溢价。 全球地缘政治变化及多极化趋势支撑战略资源品价格，有色金属如铜、 铝、锡、钴、钨、稀土等供给刚性资源以及核能发展带来的新需求值得 关注。 前沿产业创新重点关注晶圆厂、先进封装设备及零部件材料，以及 GPU ASIC EDI 软件等环节。应用端应关注具有私数据护城河的 To B 公司， 尤其是在数据壁垒方面有优势的企业。 新能源产业正向统筹协调、集成融合发展，储能、绿色氢氨醇迎来发展 机遇。全固态电池将在 2026 年迎来产业化关键期，核聚变工程实验堆 招标提速，四代核能中的土基熔岩堆技术路线值得重视。 Q&A 2026 年在产业选择上有哪些值得关注的方向？ 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，产业选择需要高度重视全 ...

公司首次授予激励对象 公司于2025 年11 月21 日召开董事会，审议通过了《关于向激励对象首次授予限制性股票的议案》，同 意确定2025 年11 月21 日为首次授予日，并同意以90.25 元/股的授予价格向符合授予条件的878 名激励 对象授予1653.54 万股限制性股票，约占本激励计划草案公告时公司股本总额的0.71%。 截至2025 年6 月30 日，公司共有员工2803 人，激励对象占比超30%。本次激励授予范围广，股权价值 高，回报力度大，有利于加深员工与公司的深度绑定，巩固核心人才壁垒，为公司长期发展注入持久动 能。 算力领军企业的强强联合或将实现技术发展成果的共享，促进产业链上下游优质资源的整合，进一步推 动国产算力做大做强。 盈利预测与估值 我们预计公司25-27 年分别实现收入142.1 亿、207.0 亿、291.5 亿，同比增速为55%、46%、41%；归属 母公司股东的净利润为29.8 亿、43.4 亿、64.1 亿。对应25-27 年PE 估值分别为161、111、75 倍，维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示 产品研发不及预期、下游需求不及预期、业绩增长不及预期、政策落地不及预期、 ...

11月19日美股盘后，整个市场都在焦灼等待英伟达的财报数据。在此之前，关于AI（人工智能）泡沫 是否存在的讨论愈发广泛且紧迫，投资者急需从英伟达的业绩中寻找信心支撑。不出所料，英伟达再度 交出惊艳答卷：第三财季营收达570.1亿美元，超出市场预期的549.2亿美元，同比增长62%；净利润 319.1亿美元，同比大涨65%。 受这一利好推动，11月20日美股大幅高开，但这份乐观情绪仅维持了1个小时，此后纳指一路震荡走 低，盘中翻绿并最终以2.15%的跌幅收盘，留下一根难看的大阴线。英伟达股价走势与纳指同步，20日 下跌3.15%，21日续跌0.97%，自10月高点以来累计回撤已超15%。 股市热度骤降的背后，AI基础设施投资却依旧一片红火。美银分析师预测，仅2025年全球人工智能基 础设施支出就将超过4000亿美元；英伟达更预期，到2030年全球人工智能基础设施支出将达到3万亿美 元至4万亿美元。包括英伟达在内的硬件厂商，相关产品需求仍处于供不应求状态。但需要警惕的是， 当前AI的繁荣局面，更多是科技巨头"军备竞赛"的产物，其脆弱性已日益凸显。 脆弱性三：技术发展与现实需求脱节。 科技巨头普遍抱有"害怕错过"的 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia reported impressive Q3 earnings with revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding market expectations of $54.92 billion, and a year-on-year growth of 62% [1] - The net profit reached $31.91 billion, marking a 65% increase year-on-year [1] - Despite the positive earnings, the Nasdaq index fell by 2.15% on November 20, reflecting a broader market decline [1] Group 1: AI Infrastructure Investment - AI infrastructure investment is projected to exceed $400 billion globally by 2025, with Nvidia forecasting it to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 [1] - Demand for AI-related hardware remains high, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1] Group 2: Market Structure Vulnerabilities - The capital market is heavily skewed towards major players, with OpenAI alone announcing investments totaling $1.4 trillion, leading to a market dominated by a few tech giants [2] - This imbalance creates instability, as any underperformance in AI investment returns could trigger significant valuation adjustments [2] Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The race to develop more powerful AI models has led to massive investments from tech giants, driven by the belief that stronger models equate to better competitive positioning [3] - The focus on efficiency in chip development and model iteration raises questions about whether these advancements will translate into real-world productivity gains [3] Group 4: Disconnect Between Technology and Demand - Tech giants are investing heavily in AI infrastructure out of fear of falling behind, even if the returns do not justify the investments [4] - Nvidia's strategy involves significant investments in ecosystem partners, aiming for these partners to create killer AI products that can sustain market demand for its chips [4] Group 5: Economic Concerns - The U.S. economy's growth is increasingly reliant on data center construction and AI investments, with AI-related investments accounting for nearly 92% of growth in early 2025 [6] - The focus on AI investment may lead to job losses in traditional sectors, raising concerns about the sustainability of economic growth driven primarily by capital flow rather than broad-based income growth [6]

Core Insights - The global automotive industry is undergoing a transformation towards electrification, intelligence, and globalization, with Chinese supply chain companies evolving from "followers" to "leaders" on the global stage [1][3] Group 1: Trends in the Automotive Supply Chain - Trend 1: China's global position in the supply chain is rising, with the "Chinese content rate" becoming a key indicator of success. Chinese companies have a nearly 70% share in the global battery market and are transitioning from importing to exporting in the smart technology sector [4][5] - Trend 2: Batteries, chips, and software are identified as the three core competitive areas in the supply chain, with significant challenges in resource concentration and technological innovation. The need for domestic operating systems in vehicles is emphasized to avoid high switching costs in the future [5][6] - Trend 3: The globalization of the Chinese supply chain is evolving from "trade going out" to "local manufacturing," with the innovative "dual factory" model addressing localization challenges [6][7][8] Group 2: Cross-Industry Extensions and Supply Chain Security - Trend 4: The automotive supply chain is extending into new fields such as robotics and low-altitude economy, providing support for emerging industries while offering new opportunities for traditional automotive companies [9] - Trend 5: Supply chain security has become a strategic priority for automotive companies, shifting focus from lean production to building a stable supply chain system [11][12] - Trend 6: Component manufacturers are encouraged to adopt rapid response and technological iteration strategies to adapt to industry changes and reduce dependency on traditional production models [13][14] Group 3: Addressing Supply-Demand Imbalances - Trend 7: The primary contradiction in the supply chain is the supply-demand imbalance, with a call for platforms that facilitate connections between new technology companies and automotive manufacturers [15][16][17] - Trend 8: The future direction of the supply chain is guided by the "new four modernizations" of high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated development, aiming to enhance China's competitive position in the global automotive landscape [18]

11月21日，总部位于广州的国产软件科创板上市公司品高股份接连发布多份公告，包括变更公司总经 理、对算力芯片初创公司江原科技增资投资4亿元、12%股权转让等重要事项。11月21日，品高股份股 票开盘涨停20%封板，直至收盘未开板，总市值55.42亿元。 品高股份发布关于变更公司总经理的公告显示，董事会于近日收到公司总经理黄海的辞职报告，黄海因 计划更专注于履行董事长职责，集中精力统筹公司长期战略规划与发展方向，进一步优化公司治理结 构、提升决策效率，故申请辞去公司总经理职务。辞职后黄海仍系公司实际控制人之一。 资料显示，黄海于1971年8月出生，于1993年至2002年历任广州市京华网络有限公司系统开发部经理和 研发中心总经理。2003年至今就职于品高股份，是公司创始团队成员之一。2018年12月黄海任广州市品 高软件股份有限公司董事并出任董事长，2019年1月起担任总经理职务。 黄海卸任总经理后，品高股份聘任李淼淼担任公司总经理。公告显示，李淼淼于1987年出生，毕业于中 山大学计算机软件与理论专业，数据库工程师。2012年7月至2015年6月，任职于中央人民政府驻香港特 别行政区联络办公室，担任副主任科员 ...