Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's 2QFY26 non-GAAP net profit is expected to fall below consensus estimates due to increased investment in flash sales and expanded losses in other businesses [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - 2QFY26 revenue is projected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year to 245.5 billion yuan, while adjusted EBITA is expected to decline by 83% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan [1] - Cloud computing revenue is anticipated to accelerate with a year-on-year growth of 30%, up from 26% in the previous quarter, and cloud EBITA margin is expected to be 9.0% [1] - The company has adjusted its FY26 revenue forecast down by 1% to 1,061.5 billion yuan and lowered FY26 and FY27 non-GAAP net profit estimates by 17% and 4% to 101.2 billion yuan and 143.8 billion yuan, respectively [2] Group 2: Flash Sales and E-commerce Performance - Flash sales (including food delivery and instant retail) are expected to incur an EBITA loss of 36.5 billion yuan, which is higher than previous expectations [2] - Customer management revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year, contributing 2-3% to the growth rate from flash sales [2] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) is expected to increase by 5.7%, and excluding flash sales losses, e-commerce EBITA is expected to show positive year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: Other Business Segments - AIDC is expected to break even in adjusted EBITA, maintaining a profit-first strategy amid uncertain external conditions [2] - Other business losses are projected to reach 5 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in model training, AI applications, and local services [2] Group 4: Valuation and Target Price - The company is currently trading at 30x and 21x FY26 and FY27 non-GAAP P/E ratios [2] - The target prices are maintained at $204 for US shares and HK$197 for Hong Kong shares, indicating an upside potential of 11% and 13% respectively from current prices [2]

海能投顾：全球化进程的加速为投资市场带来了更多的跨境机会 在当今世界，智能化和全球化已成为推动经济发展的两大引擎。它们不仅重塑了投资市场，也为投资者带来了前所未有的 新机遇。本文将深入探讨智能化与全球化如何相互作用，以及它们如何为投资市场带来新的增长点。 首先，智能化技术的进步正在以前所未有的速度改变着全球经济的面貌。从人工智能到大数据，从云计算到物联网，这些 技术的发展不仅提高了生产效率，还创造了新的商业模式和市场。智能化技术的应用使得企业能够更精准地预测市场趋 势，优化供应链管理，提高客户服务质量，从而在激烈的市场竞争中脱颖而出。对于投资者而言，这意味着需要关注那些 能够利用智能化技术实现业务转型和创新的公司，因为它们很可能成为未来的市场领导者。 全球化进程的加速为投资市场带来了更多的跨境机会。随着全球经济的融合，资本、商品、服务和劳动力的流动变得更加 自由，这为投资者提供了更广阔的投资视野。全球化不仅促进了跨国公司的扩张，也为新兴市场提供了增长动力。投资者 可以在全球范围内寻找那些具有高增长潜力的市场和行业，从而实现资产的多元化配置。 ...

点击上图▲立即收听 " 当前一年的巨头们的 AI 基建开支，已超过建设信息高速公路 20 年总开支的一半。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） "（原本）或许借助10GW的计算能力，AI能够攻克癌症的治疗方法。但若受限于计算资源，我们将被迫做出优先级选择——谁都不愿面临这种抉 择。" GW是一个功率单位，1GW相当于10亿瓦特，与一次强闪电的瞬时功率相当，能点燃1亿盏LED节能灯泡，可供一个百万人口的中型城市提供日常 所用的电力。 当它被用于衡量算力时，指代的是该计算所消耗的能量。 在OpenAI创始人奥特曼看来，10倍这样的能量，还有机会还能为人类攻克癌症，前提是，让这股能量成为AI的食材。 人工智能领域总是充斥着"如果……我们就不能……"般奥特曼式的恐慌，与股票市场FOMO（Fear Of Missing Out）错失恐惧症类似，尽管他们 已经走在了时代前沿，却依然害怕被时代所抛弃。 而能让他们安心的，唯有利用钞能力不断投入再投入，一场由全球巨头公司掀起的算力基建大战就此拉开帷幕。 奥特曼发表博文的前一天，英伟达宣布将向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，用于部署大规模算力中心，训练下一代模型。 1 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 郝倩/发自瑞士日内瓦 世界贸易组织（WTO）10月7日发布最新《全球贸易展望与统计》报告称，2025年上半年全球货物贸易 增速超出预期，主要受人工智能（AI）相关商品需求强劲、北美地区提前进口以规避关税、以及新兴 经济体间贸易活跃等因素推动。 WTO总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦拉（Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala）表示，各国对关税变化的"克制应对"、AI行 业的增长潜力以及新兴经济体间贸易的回暖，缓解了2025年的外部压力。伊韦拉坦言，全球货物贸易的 增长预期比之前高了很多，更不用说4月份的时候还以为货物贸易增长会实现负增长。 在此背景下，WTO将2025年全球货物贸易增长预期从8月份的0.9%上调至2.4%，同时将2026年预期从之 前的1.8%下调至0.5%。作为对比，2025年全球GDP的增长预期为2.7%，2026年为2.6%。 AI产品贡献近半增长 亚洲出口表现强劲 报告显示，2025年上半年全球货物贸易量（以进出口平均值计）同比增长4.9%，以美元计的贸易额增 长6%。AI相关商品——包括半导体、服务器及电信设备——成为 ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据华尔街金融巨头美国银行(BofA)策略师团队的最新观点，投资者们可通过将AI相关投资标 的与那些和全球经济增长密切相关联且估值相比于美国科技巨头们便宜得多的股票(比如资源类股票)相结合，来更 好地配置并参与以人工智能为核心的投资热潮——这些与经济增长密切相关的股票标的有望大幅受益于AI技术所带 来的人类社会生产效率大幅提升。 此外，美银最新公布的这份研报还显示，在本十年的后半段(即2025-2030年)，市场将更加倾向于中国四大科技巨头 而不是美股七巨头——即美银重点聚焦的"BATX"，分别代表百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、腾讯(Tencent)和小米 (Xiaomi)。 美银还表示，市场更加倾向于安全体系构建、国家干预、人口/技术转变和新资产投资，而全球化、美联储独立性以 及"美股七巨头"这一曾经时期(2020-2025)的全球市场宠儿则都有可能被视为已经过了顶峰时期。 占据标普500指数以及纳斯达克100指数高额权重(大约35%)的所谓"美股七大科技巨头"，即"Magnificent Seven"，它 们包括：苹果、微软、谷歌、特斯拉、英伟达、亚马逊以及Faceb ...

热门科技股涨多跌少。特斯拉短线下挫转跌，此前一度涨超2%。消息面上，特斯拉第三季度交付量超 出市场预期。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 190.150 | 1.55% | | | NVDA.O | | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | 721.153 | 0.53% | | | META.O | | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET). | 246.800 | 0.51% | | | GOOG.O | | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 256.532 | 0.42% | | | AAPL.O | | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 220.080 | -0.25% | | | AMZN.O | | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 518.130 | -0.30% | | | MSFT.O | | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 454.360 | -1.11% | | | TSLA.O | | | | 半导体板块走强，费城半导体指数盘中涨1.7%，再创历史新高。个股方 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones down 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.02%, and Nasdaq up 0.29% as of October 2 [1] - The semiconductor sector strengthened, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 1.7% to a new historical high, and notable individual stocks like ASML and AMD increasing over 2% [2] - Alibaba's U.S. stock price target was raised by JPMorgan from $170 to $245, citing growth in cloud computing and e-commerce as key drivers for higher valuation [3] Group 2 - Significant inflows into Alibaba's Hong Kong stock were noted, with a net buying amount of approximately 757.09 billion HKD in September, which is ten times that of Tencent Holdings [3] - Major international institutional investors and sovereign funds have been increasing their stakes in Alibaba, with notable investments from Ark Invest and the Norwegian Sovereign Fund [4] - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping 0.92% to $3829.639 per ounce and spot silver decreasing by 2.27% to $46.245 per ounce [4]

③【摩根大通上调阿里巴巴目标价至245美元】 当地时间10月1日，摩根大通将阿里巴巴美股目标价从 170美元上调至245美元，称云计算和电商业务的增长将支撑其更高估值。截至发稿，阿里巴巴上涨 2.84%。 ⑧【马斯克成首位财富突破5000亿美元的富豪】当地时间10月1日，全球首富马斯克的个人财富突破 5000亿美元，成为史上第一个身价跨过这一门槛的人，这主要是得益于特斯拉股价反弹以及这位科技企 业家旗下其它初创公司估值飙升。根据福布斯富豪榜，截至美国东部时间下午4:15，马斯克的净资产达 到了5001亿美元，但目前回落至5000亿美元下方。 ⑨【英特尔被曝与AMD洽谈代工合作】当地时间10月1日，据媒体援引知情人士报道，英特尔正与 AMD进行初步洽谈，探讨由英特尔代工生产部分AMD芯片的可能性。截至发稿，AMD上涨2.28%，英 特尔上涨0.11%。 ④ 【OpenAI估值达5000亿美元】当地时间10月1日，据媒体援引知情人士报道，OpenAI已完成价值约 66亿美元的二级股票出售，使公司估值达到5000亿美元。这一交易使OpenAI成为全球最有价值的初创 公司，超过了马斯克的SpaceX，后者最近的估值约 ...

消息面，摩根大通将阿里巴巴港股目标价大幅上调至240港元，称云计算和电商业务的增长料支撑其更高估值。如果以今日收盘价计算，按照摩根大通给出 的目标价，阿里巴巴未来还有超30%的上涨空间。 摩根大通在报告中表示，阿里云收入增速连续8个季度加快，2025年二季度同比增长26%，主要受互联网、自动驾驶和具身智能等领域的生成式AI需求驱 动。 预计中国生成式AI的普及速度可能会超过此前的软件即服务（SaaS）浪潮，因可提升效率的空间更广泛且部署门槛更低。 每经记者｜曾子建 每经编辑｜袁东 今日（10月2日），港股市场迎来10月行情开门红。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收于27287.12点，上涨431.56点，涨幅1.61%。 恒生科技指数报收于6682.86点，上涨217.20点，涨幅3.36%。核心公司方面，阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK）盘中一度涨超4%，收盘报183.1港元，最终涨幅 3.45%。 银河证券表示，半导体行业长期持续向好，一方面，AI数据中心推升存储器需求，直接拉动设备需求；另一方面，国产替代持续深化，带来增长空间。短 期来看，头部存储厂商新项目启动及先进逻辑扩产，推动设备行业迎来新一轮增长，长期国产替 ...

Core Insights - Nasdaq serves as a crucial financing platform for global technology companies, focusing on a closed-loop system of "value creation - value communication - value realization" in its market capitalization management [2] Group 1: Value Creation - The long-term anchor of market capitalization is the intrinsic value of the company, with Nasdaq emphasizing growth potential, profit quality, and sustainability as the foundation for value creation [2] - Key factors for business growth and market competitiveness include innovation capability, technological barriers, and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations [3] Group 2: Investor Relations Management - Efficient investor relations (IR) management is critical for value communication, with institutional investors making up over 70% of Nasdaq's investor base [3] - A layered communication strategy is necessary to address market misunderstandings and short-selling, including a rapid response mechanism for negative news [3][4] - Regular roadshows and clear communication of financial models and business catalysts are essential for engaging institutional investors [4] Group 3: Liquidity Management and Capital Operations - High liquidity in Nasdaq is a significant support for market capitalization, requiring companies to balance shareholder returns with long-term development through capital operations [5] - Strategies include maintaining stock liquidity, shareholder return policies, and strategic mergers and acquisitions [5][6] Group 4: Compliance and Transparency - Strict regulatory frameworks, such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and SEC rules, are fundamental to maintaining market capitalization, with violations leading to severe consequences [6] - Companies must ensure accurate financial disclosures, governance structures, and compliance with regulations to avoid risks [6][7] Group 5: Dynamic Market Monitoring - Market capitalization is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, industry cycles, and unexpected events, necessitating real-time monitoring and strategy adjustments [7] - Companies should track key valuation metrics and prepare for various macro scenarios to manage market fluctuations effectively [8]