按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年11月24日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 上周环球 大类资产表现 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 (3) 台股市场焦点 AI出口动能延续， 经济处于舒适区 股票 估值承压但仍受益于AI； GUC;台达电子 ETF iShares 安硕核心MSCI 台湾ETF (1) 港股市场焦点 中国经济增长 "前低后高" 股票 预计港股盈利增速触底升； 腾讯控股；阿里巴巴 ETF iShares安碩 恒生科技指數ETF (2) 韩国市场焦点 通胀超预期， 明年初再降息 股票 顺势而为，配置韩股； SK海力士 ；三星电子 ETF iShares安碩 MSCI南韩ETF 1 上周环球 股市表现 科技股估值焦虑引发全球市场大幅回调 | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on investment strategies in the context of the Chinese consumer market and technology sector, particularly companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, and the liquor industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Goals and Strategies** The fund management aims for a reasonable annualized compound return of 10%-15%, emphasizing both absolute and relative returns. Financial metrics such as ROIC and ROE are used to filter high-quality companies, alongside strict valuation methods. [1][2][3] 2. **Investment Selection Criteria** The approach combines fundamental research with valuation pricing, focusing on "good industry, good company, good price." Industries with stable business models and long life cycles are prioritized, along with companies that play a leading role in the supply chain. [1][5] 3. **Portfolio Allocation** The portfolio is divided into three categories: high volatility offensive, medium volatility stable, and low volatility defensive. This aims to achieve steady growth while reducing volatility through diversified industry styles. [1][6] 4. **Dividend and Low Volatility Stocks** In a low-interest-rate environment, companies with stable dividend yields of 4%-5% are still valuable. Attention is given to companies maintaining financial health during economic downturns, providing a safety margin during recovery phases. [1][7] 5. **Technology Sector Investment Opportunities** The investment focus is on hardware leading to software advancements and business model transformations. Companies like Alibaba are seen as having significant long-term returns due to substantial R&D investments. [1][8] 6. **Comparison of Chinese Consumer Assets** Chinese consumer assets are significantly undervalued compared to global counterparts. For instance, Alibaba's e-commerce profits are compared to Walmart's, highlighting a substantial valuation gap. [3][11] 7. **Investment in Liquor Industry** The liquor industry is characterized by a long life cycle and consistent cash flow, with a recommendation to invest during low points in the cycle for higher returns over two to three years. [3][13] 8. **New vs. Old Consumption** Both old and new consumption sectors have unique growth potentials. The strategy involves balancing investments in stable, traditional companies with innovative, high-growth new companies. [12][19] 9. **Economic Downturn Opportunities** The current economic downturn is seen as a phase where traditional industry leaders may perform well. Companies with strong cash flows and healthy financials are prioritized for investment. [15][18] 10. **Consumer Goods Investment Distinction** The distinction between discretionary and non-discretionary consumer goods is emphasized, with a focus on companies that create emotional value for consumers. [16] 11. **Balanced Allocation Between Consumption Types** The portfolio maintains a balanced allocation between old and new consumption, with a preference for traditional sectors while remaining open to attractive new consumption opportunities. [19] 12. **Risk Management through Diversification** The strategy includes diversifying across industries and styles to lower portfolio volatility and achieve stable growth, particularly in traditional sectors like steel and food and beverage. [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on the importance of management quality in new consumption companies and the need for in-depth research into their business models. [14][17] - The potential for significant returns from companies that can adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences, particularly in the context of AI and technology advancements. [10][8]

Core Viewpoint - Tianyi Ma plans to acquire 98.5632% of Guangdong Xingyun Kaiwu Technology Co., Ltd. for a total transaction price of 1.189 billion yuan, which will involve issuing shares and cash payments [1][2] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition will be financed through 582 million yuan in shares and 606 million yuan in cash [1] - The company aims to raise up to 155 million yuan from its actual controller, Ma Xuepei, for supporting funds [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Xingyun Kaiwu is a provider of digital services for smart self-service devices, focusing on integrated solutions of IoT smart hardware and SaaS cloud platforms [1] - The acquisition is expected to create complementary and synergistic effects in areas such as industry chain layout, technology research and development, market expansion, and product iteration [1][2] Group 3: Financial Performance - Xingyun Kaiwu's projected revenues for 2023 to the first half of 2025 are 385 million yuan, 447 million yuan, and 248 million yuan, with net profits of 38.69 million yuan, 86.66 million yuan, and 54.57 million yuan respectively [2] - The performance commitment includes net profits of no less than 90 million yuan, 95 million yuan, and 105 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The transaction will enable Tianyi Ma to deepen its presence in the digital services sector for smart self-service devices, enhancing its growth potential [2] - The company aims to strengthen its research and development capabilities in this area, optimize its industry chain layout, and expand its sales scale to better meet diverse customer needs [2]

此次"同心工作站"的成立，是哈尔滨移动践行社会责任、深化校企统战工作的重要举措，更是公司依托高校智力资源、推动产业创新升级的战 略布局。未来，哈尔滨移动将持续发挥通信运营商的资源与技术优势，与哈工大计算学部携手共进，激活党外知识分子创新活力，加速产学研 用深度融合，为龙江全面振兴、全方位振兴贡献更大的移动力量。 哈工大计算学部党委书记单既阳详细介绍了双方依托5G应用创新联合研究院的合作成果，并对"同心工作站"的建设愿景作出阐释。他表示，学 部将以工作站为纽带，打造联络党外知识分子的全新服务阵地，构建"建言献策的智慧岛、党外人才的孵化器、再建新功的实践地"，通过联 心、联力、联智、联建的合作模式，凝聚广大党外知识分子的智慧力量，实现思想"同心"、发展"同向"、行动"同力"，与哈尔滨移动一道深度 融入"智慧龙江"、"数字龙江"建设，为地方企业发展和龙江全面振兴汇聚合力。 哈工大党委统战部常务副部长苑颖介绍了学校党外知识分子队伍建设及已建"同心工作站"的经验成果，对哈尔滨移动长期以来给予学校发展的 支持表示感谢。她强调，希望双方以工作站筹建为契机，进一步强化党外知识分子的思想共识，支持其在岗位上建功立业、积极建言献 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are no longer merely buying into the AI narrative but are critically examining the financial costs incurred by companies to support this narrative, particularly those that are heavily borrowing to fund expansion [1][7]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The U.S. stock market indices have experienced declines, with the S&P 500 falling for four consecutive trading days amid concerns over an AI bubble [2]. - A recent survey indicates that 45% of fund managers view the "AI bubble" as the primary tail risk in the market, with growing worries about excessive spending on AI-related projects [4]. - The "OpenAI halo" effect, which previously boosted stock prices, is rapidly fading, as evidenced by Oracle's stock price decline following its announcement of a $300 billion deal with OpenAI [6][13]. Group 2: Oracle's Financial Situation - Oracle's ambitious growth plans are undermined by a fragile financial structure, with a projected capital expenditure of $35 billion for the current fiscal year and an expected annual expenditure of $80 billion by 2029 [9][10]. - The company's net debt has reached 2.5 times its EBITDA, having more than doubled since 2021, and is expected to double again by 2030 [10]. - Market predictions suggest that Oracle will continue to experience negative cash flow over the next five years [11]. Group 3: Risk Assessment - The cost of hedging against Oracle's debt default risk has risen to a three-year high, reflecting increasing market concerns about its credit risk [12]. - The inability of partnerships with AI leaders to boost stock prices raises questions about the sustainability of significant capital commitments in the AI sector [16][17].

全球城市经济格局正经历着前所未有的重塑，最新公布的全球GDP五十强榜单，清晰地勾勒出中国城市群体性崛起的壮丽图景。如果说纽约和东京依然是傲 立潮头的巨擘，那么香港、杭州和南京等中国城市则以前所未有的姿态，在全球经济舞台上展现出强大的竞争力。 具体来看，香港以28993亿元人民币的经济总量，力压莫斯科的27307亿元，稳居第17位。杭州紧随其后，以21860亿元（约2.2万亿人民币）的经济体量位列 第32。南京也不甘示弱，以18501亿元的成绩占据第44位。 这些耀眼数字的背后，是中国城市得天独厚的区位优势与国家政策红利相互叠加的成果。从沿海地区的率先开放，到内陆腹地的蓬勃发展，中国城市正通过 精准的战略定位和持续的创新驱动，深刻地改变着全球经济的版图。 那么，这些城市究竟是如何实现经济的逆势上扬？其高速增长的深层逻辑又蕴含着怎样的辩证思考？以下我们将深入剖析香港、杭州和南京这三座城市的独 特发展路径。 作为国际金融中心，香港的领先地位并非偶然，而是地理战略优势与产业创新紧密结合的必然结果。香港地处东亚的战略要冲，同时享有自由港政策和"一 国两制"的制度优势，使其成为全球资金流动的重要枢纽。数据显示，香港的GD ...

（原标题：佳时特数控刘华：创投资金为企业研发按下"加速键"） | 科创50ETF | 云计算 | | --- | --- | | (产品代码:588000) | (产品代 | | ★ 跟踪：上证科创板50成份指数 | ★ 跟踪:中证云计算与大数 | | 近五日涨跌：-2.05% | 近五日涨跌:0.45% | | 市盈率:151.88倍 | 市盈率: 91.12倍 | | 资金流向: 最新份额为508.2亿份, 增 | 资金流向:最新份 | | 加了8550.0万份,主力资金 | T 0.0 G | | 净流出3.3亿元。 | 69.0 万元 | | 估值分位: 95.58% | 估值分位: 77.92% | 目前，佳时特机床已成功进入航空航天、新能源汽车等战略领域，并获得美的、格力、海立等世界级巨头的认可与合作。随着机器人产业快速发 展，其对高精密关节的需求将为工业母机带来更广阔的市场空间。 人民财讯11月18日电，11月18日，第二十届中国经济论坛平行论坛--2025大湾区科技与金融创新发展大会在广州南沙隆重举行。佳时特数控董事 长刘华在会上表示，公司成功研制出全程精度达0.4微米的高精密数控机床，解决了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global AI computing power investment is expected to drive high growth in the optical communication sector's net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 1: Optical Communication Sector - The optical communication sector is anticipated to continue high growth in net profit due to increased investment in AI computing power [1] - Demand for hollow-core optical fibers, submarine cables, and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) is noteworthy [1] Group 2: Telecommunications Operators - The telecommunications operator sector is expected to maintain steady growth [1] - The development of AI applications is bringing new growth momentum to cloud computing and data center businesses for telecom operators [1] Group 3: ICT Equipment and IDC - The ICT equipment and IDC sectors are likely to benefit from the capital expenditure growth of internet giants [1] Group 4: Copper Connection Sector - The copper connection sector is set to realize growth as production capacity is released [1] Group 5: Market Trends - The optical module market is expected to maintain high prosperity due to ongoing investments in domestic and international computing infrastructure [1] - As of October 28, the communication ETF (515880) has a 52% allocation to optical modules and a 22% allocation to servers, with optical fibers and copper connections combined exceeding 81% [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, stating that the AI bull market has not significantly impacted employment, and the cooling effect is only "moderate" [1] - Warren Buffett makes a significant bet on Google after 20 years, with Berkshire Hathaway establishing a new position in Google stock [2] - Elon Musk announces that Tesla will build its own chip factory to accelerate AI chip supply and address current reliance on Samsung and TSMC's production capacity [3] Group 2 - Novo Nordisk lowers the prices of Wegovy and Ozempic to $349, initiating a price war in the weight loss drug market and directly challenging Eli Lilly's market position [4] - Amazon issues $12 billion in bonds, joining the AI financing wave among tech giants, with funds allocated for cloud computing and AI infrastructure expansion, attracting approximately $80 billion in subscription demand [5] Group 3 - Major European stock indices close lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.85%, led by declines in technology and financial stocks amid concerns over global demand slowdown [9] - U.S. Treasury yields show mixed results, with the 30-year Treasury yield down 1.20 basis points; Bitcoin futures drop 2.87%, reaching a six-month low, impacting related cryptocurrency stocks [10] - U.S. stock indices collectively decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.2%, Nasdaq down 1.1%, and S&P 500 down 1.05%, as investors worry about overbuilding in the AI sector, highlighted by Peter Thiel's fund liquidating all Nvidia shares last quarter [11]

Core Insights - Google plans to invest $40 billion in building three new data center campuses in Texas by 2027, part of a larger $90 billion capital expenditure expected by 2025, highlighting the intensifying AI infrastructure arms race among tech giants [3][4][7] - Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased its stake in Google, purchasing $4.3 billion worth of shares, which has appreciated to approximately $5.1 billion, indicating a shift towards valuing hard tech investments [4][6] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with Google’s stock rising 46% this year, as major investors focus on long-term value rather than short-term volatility [7][10] Investment Implications - The surge in investments from tech giants like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, totaling nearly $400 billion, is expected to drive significant growth in the AI infrastructure market, projected to expand tenfold from 2023 to 2027 [10][12] - AI-themed ETFs are gaining traction due to the increased attractiveness of AI-related investments, with notable inflows into funds like the Sci-Tech AI ETF and the ChiNext AI ETF [8][10] - The capital expenditure by major tech firms is anticipated to act as a growth engine for the U.S. economy, contributing to GDP growth and enhancing liquidity and return expectations for AI-focused investments [10][12]