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中美GDP对比
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中美GDP比例掉头向下,70%魔咒背后藏着猫腻,真实差距在变小?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-30 17:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the apparent decline in China's GDP proportion relative to the US is misleading, as it is influenced by factors such as exchange rates, inflation, and differing statistical methods [1][3][5] - China's actual economic growth rate in 2023 is 5.2%, nearly double the US's 2.9%, yet the GDP proportion to the US has decreased due to currency depreciation and inflationary pressures in the US [3][11] - The US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have led to a depreciation of the RMB by over 10% from late 2021 to early 2024, directly impacting the GDP comparison between China and the US [5][6] Group 2 - By the end of 2023, China's GDP, when calculated at 2021 exchange rates, would exceed $20 trillion, resulting in a proportion of over 73% compared to the US, rather than the currently reported 64% [8] - The nominal GDP growth rate for the US in 2023 is approximately 6.3%, while China's nominal growth rate is 4.6%, leading to a situation where China's actual growth is higher than its nominal growth [11] - The US's high inflation has inflated its nominal GDP figures, creating a false sense of economic prosperity, while the actual purchasing power of American citizens is declining [11][13] Group 3 - The US GDP calculation includes non-productive elements such as "imputed rent" for owner-occupied housing, which contributes significantly to its GDP but does not reflect actual production [15] - The structure of demand in the US economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, accounting for about 80%, while China's consumer spending contribution is only 53.5% [17] - In terms of real economic indicators, China's manufacturing output is 1.67 times that of the US, with its primary and secondary industries significantly outpacing the US [17]
利润37亿估值13.5万亿?美国GDP的虚高骗局,中国已反超15万亿?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-15 10:14
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the reported GDP of the United States, currently at $29.2 trillion, is inflated due to the statistical methods used, which prioritize financial transactions over actual economic value creation [1][3]. Group 1: GDP Calculation Method - The U.S. employs the expenditure method for GDP calculation, counting all financial transactions regardless of their actual value creation [3]. - Notable examples include the inclusion of ambulance costs and legal settlements in GDP figures, which do not reflect real economic productivity [3]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. Hard Indicators - Despite a significant GDP increase from $21.5 trillion in 2019 to $29.2 trillion in 2024 (a 35.8% rise), hard indicators such as electricity consumption have only grown by 4.9% during the same period [5]. - U.S. automobile sales have declined from 17.1 million to 16.03 million over five years, indicating a lack of real consumer spending power [7]. Group 3: Price Inflation and Economic Bubbles - The article highlights rampant price inflation in consumer goods, with items like toilet paper and washing liquid seeing price increases of over 100% since 2019 [7]. - The construction costs of infrastructure projects in the U.S. are significantly higher than in China, indicating a bubble in the U.S. economy [9]. Group 4: Stock Market Valuation - The total market capitalization of U.S. stocks has reached $68 trillion, exceeding 218% of GDP, which is significantly above the 200% threshold considered safe by Warren Buffett [11]. - The AI sector alone accounts for $22 trillion of this market cap, driven by a closed-loop investment cycle among major tech companies [13]. Group 5: Comparison with China - China uses a production method for GDP calculation, focusing on the net value of new production, which provides a more accurate reflection of economic activity [15]. - China's GDP grew from $14.4 trillion in 2019 to $18.94 trillion in 2024, with a 31.53% increase, and electricity consumption rose by 42%, indicating a more robust economic growth [17]. Group 6: Economic Stability - The article posits that the U.S. economy is overly reliant on statistical manipulation and financial speculation, which could lead to a collapse of perceived wealth [22]. - In contrast, China's economy is grounded in real production and tangible outputs, providing a more stable foundation amid global economic fluctuations [22].
中美差距又扩大了?25年第一季度中国GDP跌至美国60%,问题出在哪
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 00:26
Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is 5.4%, significantly higher than the negative growth in the U.S., yet China's GDP share of the U.S. has decreased from a peak of 77% to around 60% [1][5][18] - The total GDP for China is approximately $9.19 trillion, while the U.S. GDP stands at $14.93 trillion, indicating a widening gap [5][28] Statistical Methodology - The U.S. employs a "quarterly annualized rate" method for GDP calculation, which can exaggerate short-term economic fluctuations [7][9] - In contrast, China uses a year-on-year growth rate, which reflects a more stable growth trend [9][11] - If China's data were calculated using the U.S. method, its growth rate would be 4.8%, surpassing the U.S. by 5 percentage points [9][11] Manufacturing and Industry Performance - China's manufacturing value-added is 1.67 times that of the U.S., showcasing a robust manufacturing sector [20] - In the automotive industry, China's annual production reached 30.16 million vehicles, approximately 2.8 times that of the U.S. [20] - China has established a comprehensive automotive industry ecosystem, from steel production to sales networks [22] Trade and Export Dynamics - China's exports of new energy products surged by 28%, with significant contributions from electric vehicles, solar components, and lithium batteries [22][24] - Exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 7.2%, indicating a diversified market strategy [24] Domestic Consumption - China's retail sales exceeded 10 trillion yuan, reflecting strong consumer purchasing power across various sectors [26] - The country's foreign exchange reserves remain above $3.2 trillion, providing economic stability [26] U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was approximately 53.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3% [28] - The trade deficit reached a historic high of $162 billion, exacerbated by panic buying due to tariff policy uncertainties [28][30] - The U.S. economy is heavily reliant on consumption and services, leading to a hollowing out of the manufacturing sector [30][32] Policy Implications - The U.S. has resorted to tariffs as a solution to economic issues, which has led to adverse effects on the economy and consumer prices [32][41] - The logistics sector has been severely impacted, with significant declines in cargo volumes at major ports [34][35] - Consumer dissatisfaction is rising due to increased costs from tariffs, leading to public protests [37][39] Conclusion - The contrasting economic trajectories of China and the U.S. highlight the importance of sustainable growth strategies versus short-term statistical manipulations [47][49]
一口气看懂中国GDP为什么一直被低估?
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-23 02:02
Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions surrounding the living conditions in the U.S. and China have revealed surprising insights, challenging the perception that Americans enjoy a significantly higher standard of living compared to their Chinese counterparts [1] Economic Comparison - The reported per capita GDP of the U.S. is $80,000, which is over six times that of China, leading to assumptions about the disparity in living standards [1] - Even accounting for differences in price levels and GDP calculation methods, the living standard in the U.S. is expected to be at least two to three times higher than in China [1] Public Reaction - Chinese netizens expressed shock upon discovering the realities of American living conditions, prompting a reevaluation of the perceived economic divide between the two nations [1] - The findings suggest that the actual living standards may be closer to parity, with a potential 50-50 split rather than the previously assumed significant gap [1]