南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 随着美国消费者进一步勒紧裤腰带，美国经济警报声愈发刺耳。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月26日，美联储发布经济状况褐皮书。褐皮书显示，十二个联邦储备区中 的大多数报告显示，经济活动与上一份报告相比变化不大，但有两个区报告略有下降，一个区报告略有 增长。虽然高端零售支出依然保持韧性，但美国总体消费支出进一步下降。 在中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅看来，美国总体经济增长趋于停滞，消费疲软加剧。本次褐 皮书定性经济活动为"变化不大"（与10月相同），在12个联邦储备区中，9个地区报告无变化（10月为5 个），仅1个地区小幅增长（10月为3个），2个地区报告小幅下滑（10月为4个）。这一格局显示，整体 经济表现基本与10月持平，经济增长停滞的范围有所扩大。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对21世纪经济报道记者表示，尽管高端零售支出依然保持韧性，但美国整 体消费者支出确实正在进一步下降，主要有三大原因：政府关门对消费者购买产生了负面影响；刺激政 策退出后，消费缺乏额外支撑，向"常态"回归，汽车经销商报告称，在联邦税收抵免到期后，电动车销 量出现下降；在经济前景存在不确定性的情况下， ...

Core Viewpoint - Crocs' stock price plummeted by 29.2% due to disappointing earnings guidance and concerns over weak U.S. consumer spending, marking its largest single-day decline since October 2011 [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3, Crocs expects revenue to decline by 9% to 11% year-over-year, contrasting with analysts' expectations of slight growth [2]. - In Q2, Crocs reported a net loss of $492.3 million, primarily due to over $700 million in impairment charges related to the $2.5 billion acquisition of the HEYDUDE brand [3]. - Despite a 3.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.1 billion in Q2, the significant loss highlights challenges in business integration and valuation [3]. Market Conditions - The CEO Andrew Rees noted that U.S. consumers are being extremely cautious with discretionary spending, leading to decreased foot traffic and a reluctance to visit stores, particularly affecting wholesale and outlet operations [2]. - Concerns over current and potential price increases may further suppress consumer spending [2]. Competitive Landscape - Crocs faces challenges from changing consumer preferences, with a shift away from "ugly shoes" and a resurgence of traditional athletic footwear, especially with upcoming major sporting events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics [3]. - The company is expected to encounter intensified competition from traditional sports brands [3]. Tariff and Cost Pressures - CFO Susan Healy indicated that tariffs based on current sourcing locations are projected to impact approximately $40 million in the second half of 2025, with an annual effect of $90 million [3]. - The company is reducing discounting to cope with rising costs, which may further suppress sales [3].