Economic Growth Forecast - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% after inflation adjustment, up from the previous prediction of 1.3% in June [1][1][1] - The upward revision is primarily due to a significant increase in expectations for business investment [1] Employment Growth Outlook - The NABE group anticipates an average monthly job growth of 60,000 for this year, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 87,000 [1][1] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in U.S. job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again by 25 basis points this year, followed by an additional 75 basis points reduction in 2026 [1][1] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group predicts that U.S. inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year, with the PCE price index expected to decrease from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. Economic Forecast - The Federal Reserve projects that by the end of 2025, economic growth will significantly slow down, inflation will rise, and the unemployment rate will slightly increase [5]. - The core inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%, and will decline to 2.4% by 2026 and further to 2.1% by 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2025, higher than the previous estimate of 4.4%, and is expected to remain at 4.5% until 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2027 [6]. - The GDP growth forecast has been downgraded, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.4% for this year, 1.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027 [6][7]. Interest Rate Predictions - The latest "dot plot" indicates that the number of officials who do not expect any rate cuts this year has increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more cautious stance [8]. - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 8 support two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe there should be no cuts, 2 support one cut, and 2 advocate for three cuts [8]. Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned against over-reliance on interest rate predictions, emphasizing that forecasts may change based on incoming data, particularly inflation data [10]. - Powell highlighted the high level of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and stated that the Federal Reserve is willing to "wait and see" for more information before making any policy adjustments [10].

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with a potential cut as early as September [1] Economic Growth Forecast - Among the 105 economists surveyed, 59 believe the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in the next quarter [1] - The surveyed economists project that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with May's predictions [1]