机构：私营部门教育和医疗岗位仍是美国就业增长重要来源 金十数据8月1日讯，机构分析指出，曾在新冠疫情期间遭受重创、恢复缓慢的私营部门教育和医疗岗 位，如今依然是就业增长的关键来源，甚至可以说是唯一来源。该类别在本月新增了7.9万个岗位，超 过了整体就业的净增数量。机构分析显示，医疗保健和社会救助部门的7月实际招聘——过去几年美国 就业增长的主要引擎，有所回升。如果没有医疗保健行业的招聘，过去三个月的就业增长情况是这样 的：5月减少5.3万人，6月减少4.5万人，7月减少300人。此外，美国联邦政府就业人数连续第六个月下 降，7月减少了1.2万人。不过，由于州政府和地方政府的就业岗位有所增加，整体"政府"部门的就业降 幅被控制在1万人。 ...

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

美国就业市场突传利好信号。 今晚，美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国5月非农就业人口增加13.9万人，高于预期的12.6万人；美国5月失业率为 4.2%，符合市场预期。 有机构分析称，这是一份不错的就业报告，缓解了投资者对美国劳动力市场大幅放缓的担忧。鉴于贸易政策不确定性的背 景，美联储将对这份报告感到宽慰。受此影响，美元指数直线拉升，现涨0.51%。美股开盘后，三大指数亦集体走强，均 大涨超1%。 这份非农就业数据或许为美联储推迟降息提供了政策空间。在数据公布后，交易员缩减了对美联储降息的押注。根据 CME的数据，利率期货显示，今年有三次及以上25个基点的降息可能性从周四的36%下降至25%。一次或零次降息的可 能性从25%上升至34%。 美国5月非农数据出炉 北京时间6月6日晚间，美股三大指数集体高开高走，截至23:00，道指涨1.08%，纳指涨1.31%，标普500指数涨1.1%， 站上6000点大关，为2月26日以来首次。 美股大型科技股全线走强，特斯拉大涨超7%，谷歌涨超2%，英伟达、苹果、亚马逊、Meta均涨超1%。 消息面上，美国劳工统计局今晚披露了美国5月非农就业报告，其中显示，美国5月非农就 ...