责任编辑：张俊 SF065 美国非营利无党派机构FactCheck的独立分析人士指出，通胀率仍维持在同比约3%的水平，并质疑有关 数万亿美元新增投资和就业增长的说法，指出自1月以来美国制造业就业人数已出现下降。 美国非营利无党派机构FactCheck的独立分析人士指出，通胀率仍维持在同比约3%的水平，并质疑有关 数万亿美元新增投资和就业增长的说法，指出自1月以来美国制造业就业人数已出现下降。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the CFTC positions report and the non-farm payroll report, impacting the timeliness and reliability of economic data [1][1] - Economists predict that the U.S. will add 50,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3%, indicating a potential slowdown in job growth for 2025 [1][1] Gold Futures Market Analysis - The next upward target for December gold futures is to break the solid resistance level at the historical high of $4,398.00, while the short-term downward target for bears is to push prices below the solid technical support of $4,000.00 [1][1] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,150.00 and $4,200.00, with initial support at the overnight low of $4,056.10 and further support at $4,000.00 [1][1] - As gold prices break above $4,150.00, short-term technical indicators show increased bullish momentum, with the next key resistance moving to the $4,200.00 level; a dovish Fed minutes could push gold prices to test around $4,300.00 [1][1]

Group 1 - Economists have raised their growth forecasts for the US economy for the next two years, with a projected GDP growth of 1.8% for this year, up from the previous estimate of 1.3% [1] - Retailers are cutting or delaying hiring seasonal workers due to uncertainties related to the economy and tariffs, impacting their ability to prepare for the holiday shopping season [1][4] - The hiring plans of retailers indicate the first signs of the holiday shopping season, but the US job market is losing momentum, partly due to uncertainties from the trade war [4] Group 2 - A specific retailer plans to hire 220 temporary workers for the holiday season, which is a decrease from the 300 hired last year, and they have started recruitment nearly two months earlier than usual [1] - Analysts will closely monitor consumer reactions to price increases from retailers due to high tariff costs in the coming months [4]

Economic Growth Forecast - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% after inflation adjustment, up from the previous prediction of 1.3% in June [1][1][1] - The upward revision is primarily due to a significant increase in expectations for business investment [1] Employment Growth Outlook - The NABE group anticipates an average monthly job growth of 60,000 for this year, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 87,000 [1][1] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in U.S. job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again by 25 basis points this year, followed by an additional 75 basis points reduction in 2026 [1][1] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group predicts that U.S. inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year, with the PCE price index expected to decrease from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The private sector education and healthcare jobs remain a crucial source of employment growth in the U.S., particularly after being severely impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - In July, the private sector added 79,000 jobs in education and healthcare, surpassing the overall net job increase [1] - The healthcare and social assistance sector has shown a rebound in hiring, which has been a primary driver of employment growth in recent years [1] Group 2 - Without the hiring in the healthcare sector, the employment growth over the past three months would have shown a decline: a decrease of 53,000 in May, 45,000 in June, and a decrease of 300 in July [1] - Federal government employment has decreased for the sixth consecutive month, with a reduction of 12,000 jobs in July [1] - Despite the decline in federal jobs, state and local government employment has increased, limiting the overall decline in government employment to 10,000 [1]

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for May shows an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, which alleviates concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market [1][2][10] - The unemployment rate for May stands at 4.2%, matching market expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous month [3][15] - The report indicates a continued upward trend in employment in healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and social assistance sectors, while manufacturing jobs decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [7][14] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing expectations, with the average hourly wage reaching $36.24 [8][14] - Following the release of the non-farm data, the market reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of three or more cuts dropping from 36% to 25% [1][11] - The report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.51% [12]