然而，该就业报告很可能是未来数月内最后一份数据质量可靠的就业报告。此次政府停摆严重干扰了10 月和11月部分时段的数据收集与分析工作，导致后续数据的准确性受到影响。 经济学家普遍预测，9月份美国将新增五万个就业岗位，失业率预计维持在4.3%。如果数据符合预期， 2025年将成为自疫情时期乃至全球金融危机以来，美国就业增长最为疲软的一年。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周四（11月20日）亚盘时段，因美国政府停摆，截至9月30日当周的CFTC持仓报告推迟至今日（11 月20日）发布。截至9月30日当周，COMEX黄金期货投机性净多头头寸减少9305手至149311手。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 由于美国政府停摆而推迟发布的九月非农就业报告，将于今晚公布。在当前经济形势快速变化的情况 下，这份数据的时效性可能已显著降低。 12月黄金期货多头下一个上行目标是收盘价突破坚实阻力位——历史纪录高点4398.00美元。空头的下 一个短期下行目标是将期货价格推低至4000.00美元下方坚实技术支撑。第一阻力位见于4150.00美元， 其次4200.00美元。第一支撑位见于隔夜低点4056.10美元，其 ...

Group 1 - Economists have raised their growth forecasts for the US economy for the next two years, with a projected GDP growth of 1.8% for this year, up from the previous estimate of 1.3% [1] - Retailers are cutting or delaying hiring seasonal workers due to uncertainties related to the economy and tariffs, impacting their ability to prepare for the holiday shopping season [1][4] - The hiring plans of retailers indicate the first signs of the holiday shopping season, but the US job market is losing momentum, partly due to uncertainties from the trade war [4] Group 2 - A specific retailer plans to hire 220 temporary workers for the holiday season, which is a decrease from the 300 hired last year, and they have started recruitment nearly two months earlier than usual [1] - Analysts will closely monitor consumer reactions to price increases from retailers due to high tariff costs in the coming months [4]

Economic Growth Forecast - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% after inflation adjustment, up from the previous prediction of 1.3% in June [1][1][1] - The upward revision is primarily due to a significant increase in expectations for business investment [1] Employment Growth Outlook - The NABE group anticipates an average monthly job growth of 60,000 for this year, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 87,000 [1][1] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in U.S. job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again by 25 basis points this year, followed by an additional 75 basis points reduction in 2026 [1][1] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group predicts that U.S. inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year, with the PCE price index expected to decrease from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The private sector education and healthcare jobs remain a crucial source of employment growth in the U.S., particularly after being severely impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - In July, the private sector added 79,000 jobs in education and healthcare, surpassing the overall net job increase [1] - The healthcare and social assistance sector has shown a rebound in hiring, which has been a primary driver of employment growth in recent years [1] Group 2 - Without the hiring in the healthcare sector, the employment growth over the past three months would have shown a decline: a decrease of 53,000 in May, 45,000 in June, and a decrease of 300 in July [1] - Federal government employment has decreased for the sixth consecutive month, with a reduction of 12,000 jobs in July [1] - Despite the decline in federal jobs, state and local government employment has increased, limiting the overall decline in government employment to 10,000 [1]

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for May shows an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, which alleviates concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market [1][2][10] - The unemployment rate for May stands at 4.2%, matching market expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous month [3][15] - The report indicates a continued upward trend in employment in healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and social assistance sectors, while manufacturing jobs decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [7][14] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing expectations, with the average hourly wage reaching $36.24 [8][14] - Following the release of the non-farm data, the market reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of three or more cuts dropping from 36% to 25% [1][11] - The report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.51% [12]