Group 1 - The focus of the market has shifted to the release of delayed economic data following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which will impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the schedule for the release of the third quarter GDP revision and PCE data, with the GDP revision set for November 26 at 8:30 AM EST [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the release of some labor data, particularly the October Consumer Price Index, as the Labor Secretary indicated that the September employment report has been collected but not yet processed [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will have access to complete data on September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the initial third quarter GDP before the December 9-10 meeting, depending on the timely release of the October and November employment reports [1] - The final value of the third quarter GDP is scheduled for release on December 19 at 8:30 AM EST, and the October international trade report will be released on December 4 at 8:30 AM EST [1]

智通财经APP注意到，随着预测市场对美国联邦政府本周结束停摆的信心增强，被长期推迟的经济数据 可能很快就会涌入市场。 在预测平台Polymarket上，多数交易员现在预计停摆将在本周四(11月13日)前结束，而Kalshi平台则指向 本周五前可能达成解决方案。 如果停摆真的能按此时限结束，美国联邦数据最早可能在下周恢复发布——导致积压报告将如"雪崩"般 涌来。 德意志银行的吉姆·里德表示："政府一旦重启，市场将面临延迟数据发布的洪流。2013年停摆的历史先 例表明，9月份就业报告可能是最先发布的数据之一，可能在重启后的三个工作日内出炉。" 因此，据里德推测，如果政府本周重启，投资者最早可能在11月18日获得9月份就业报告。 德意志银行预计非农就业人数将大幅反弹，整体和非农私人 payrolls 预计均增长7.5万人，失业率将稳定 在4.3%。 较晚的数据——如10月PCE、11月就业和11月CPI——将进一步推迟到12月中下旬。法国巴黎银行指 出，如果重启进程迅速，10月CPI数据很可能被完全跳过，直接合并到11月数据中发布。 如果政府在11月10日重启，法国巴黎银行预计延迟数据的洪流将在月中开始发布。原定1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown, which could lead to a halt in the release of key economic data, impacting market transparency and decision-making for investors and policymakers [1][2]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Implications - The U.S. Labor Department has confirmed that if a government shutdown occurs, it will suspend data collection, processing, and publication, affecting critical reports such as the monthly employment report [2][3]. - The shutdown raises concerns about the quality of economic data, which has long been considered the "gold standard" in the industry, with potential declines in data collection quality impacting future statistical estimates [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve and Market - The absence of key labor market data could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed interest rate decisions, especially with a rate cut expected at the upcoming meeting [3][4]. - Historical context from the 2013 government shutdown indicates that significant delays in data publication can occur, which may lead to increased market volatility as traders adjust their positions in response to the uncertainty [3][4]. Group 3: Market Strategies and Recommendations - Investment firms suggest strategies to mitigate risks associated with the potential data delays, including increasing allocations to fixed-income assets and maintaining a portion of cash for opportunistic investments once the shutdown is resolved [4]. - Analysts recommend that clients prepare for both risk management and opportunity capture during this uncertain period, emphasizing the importance of a diversified investment approach [4].