Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1, 2025, has disrupted the flow of critical economic data, impacting decision-making for policymakers and investors [1][3][4] - Key economic indicators such as the monthly employment report and unemployment data are now delayed, leading to uncertainty in assessing the health of the economy [3][6][10] - The Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges in formulating monetary policy due to the lack of timely and accurate economic data, which is essential for balancing inflation control and employment stability [6][8][10] Group 2 - The market is experiencing heightened volatility as investors react to the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index showing a notable increase [10][11] - Companies that rely on government contracts, such as construction and technology firms, are facing reduced orders and delayed payments, leading to declining stock prices and diminished investor confidence [11][10] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to fixed-income assets and maintain cash reserves to navigate the turbulent market conditions effectively [13][14]

美国政府运转资金将于当地时间周二午夜耗尽，截至第一财经记者发稿时，国会两党目前尚无迹象表明 会就临时支出方案达成一致，以避免政府停摆。华尔街担忧美国政府停摆成为现实，正着手应对经济数 据发布中断的局面。 里托尔兹财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）首席市场策略师考克斯（Callie Cox）表示："总 体而言，数据透明度下降会影响市场中的每一个参与者——从华尔街大佬到政策制定者，再到普通投资 者。" 纽约梅隆银行市场部全球主管沃斯（Adam Vos）在发给第一财经记者的报告中表示，若缺乏官方数 据，投资者将更多关注美联储官员的公开言论，"美联储内部存在多种不同观点，因此，我认为要准确 判断政策最终走向可能会比较复杂。" 重磅非农或缺席 劳工统计局（BLS）是美国政府停摆期间业务将暂停的关键政府机构之一。美国劳工部周一表示，若发 生政府部分停摆，其下属统计机构将暂停发布经济数据，其中包括备受关注的9月月度就业报告，非农 就业数据为报告中的一个重要项目。这份就业报告对美联储官员、企业及家庭的决策至关重要，原定于 本周五发布。 美国劳工部证实，若政府停摆，该机构将 "暂停数据收集、处 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bond fund managers at major Wall Street institutions like BlackRock and PGIM are adopting trading strategies that could continue to yield profits even if the Federal Reserve's policy path deviates due to unexpected economic changes [1][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The U.S. Treasury market experienced its largest annual gain since the pandemic began, driven by the Fed's preparation for its first rate cut in nine months [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to balance risks between labor market weaknesses and inflationary pressures during the announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [4] - The Fed's latest interest rate forecast indicates significant divergence in opinions, with expectations of two more 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and additional cuts in 2026 and 2027 [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The strategy of buying intermediate-term Treasuries is gaining confidence among market participants, as it offers interest payments and is less affected by rapid economic changes [1] - The Bloomberg 5-7 year Treasury index has returned approximately 7%, outperforming the overall market's 5.4% gain, making this segment attractive for investors [4] - The fixed interest payment levels of these bonds allow for leveraged profits, creating a "positive spread" that is appealing to bond investors [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Market dynamics are favorable for focusing on the "mid-section" of the yield curve, particularly around 5-year Treasuries, which have shown strong performance [4] - Some investors are beginning to close positions established in anticipation of rate cuts, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] - The current market pricing may be more accurate than the Fed's predictions, suggesting that the Fed will continue to lower borrowing costs to support the bond market [6]