2025年10月1日美国时隔七年政府再次摆停。 美国联邦政府的停摆不仅让国家机器部分停转，更悄然切断了至关重要的经济数据流，月度就业报告推 迟、失业数据悬置——这些衡量经济体温的"晴雨表"突然失灵。 在通胀与失业率双双亮起矛盾信号的微妙时刻，失去方向的美联储将如何抉择？一场由数据缺失引发的 连锁反应，美联储决策接连受阻，未来投资又该如何避险 停摆引发的数据危机 2025 年 10 月 1 日美国政府正式进入停摆状态。 政府停摆，就如同抽走了经济运行大厦的重要支柱，它直接切断了政策制定者和投资者们赖以生存的经 济数据 "生命线"。 要知道，那些平日里按时发布的经济数据，可不是简单的数字罗列，它们更像是经济健康状况的 "晴雨 表"，有着不可替代的公共价值。 就拿月度就业报告来说，它通过非农就业人口增长、失业率、平均时薪等核心指标。 每一个数据的变动，都可能预示着就业市场是繁荣还是面临困境，是企业在积极扩张招人，还是陷入了 裁员收缩的艰难境地。 而每周公布的初请失业金人数数据，更是扮演着重要的角色，能迅速敏锐地捕捉到就业市场动态的细微 变化，哪怕只是一丝裁员潮兴起的迹象，或者经济有滑向衰退的苗头，它都能第一时间反馈 ...

美国政府运转资金将于当地时间周二午夜耗尽，截至第一财经记者发稿时，国会两党目前尚无迹象表明 会就临时支出方案达成一致，以避免政府停摆。华尔街担忧美国政府停摆成为现实，正着手应对经济数 据发布中断的局面。 里托尔兹财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）首席市场策略师考克斯（Callie Cox）表示："总 体而言，数据透明度下降会影响市场中的每一个参与者——从华尔街大佬到政策制定者，再到普通投资 者。" 纽约梅隆银行市场部全球主管沃斯（Adam Vos）在发给第一财经记者的报告中表示，若缺乏官方数 据，投资者将更多关注美联储官员的公开言论，"美联储内部存在多种不同观点，因此，我认为要准确 判断政策最终走向可能会比较复杂。" 重磅非农或缺席 劳工统计局（BLS）是美国政府停摆期间业务将暂停的关键政府机构之一。美国劳工部周一表示，若发 生政府部分停摆，其下属统计机构将暂停发布经济数据，其中包括备受关注的9月月度就业报告，非农 就业数据为报告中的一个重要项目。这份就业报告对美联储官员、企业及家庭的决策至关重要，原定于 本周五发布。 美国劳工部证实，若政府停摆，该机构将 "暂停数据收集、处 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bond fund managers at major Wall Street institutions like BlackRock and PGIM are adopting trading strategies that could continue to yield profits even if the Federal Reserve's policy path deviates due to unexpected economic changes [1][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The U.S. Treasury market experienced its largest annual gain since the pandemic began, driven by the Fed's preparation for its first rate cut in nine months [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to balance risks between labor market weaknesses and inflationary pressures during the announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [4] - The Fed's latest interest rate forecast indicates significant divergence in opinions, with expectations of two more 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and additional cuts in 2026 and 2027 [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The strategy of buying intermediate-term Treasuries is gaining confidence among market participants, as it offers interest payments and is less affected by rapid economic changes [1] - The Bloomberg 5-7 year Treasury index has returned approximately 7%, outperforming the overall market's 5.4% gain, making this segment attractive for investors [4] - The fixed interest payment levels of these bonds allow for leveraged profits, creating a "positive spread" that is appealing to bond investors [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Market dynamics are favorable for focusing on the "mid-section" of the yield curve, particularly around 5-year Treasuries, which have shown strong performance [4] - Some investors are beginning to close positions established in anticipation of rate cuts, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] - The current market pricing may be more accurate than the Fed's predictions, suggesting that the Fed will continue to lower borrowing costs to support the bond market [6]