芦哲、张佳炜、李昌萌（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 美欧关税不确定性或继续支撑中欧贸易改善 从欧盟的角度来看，我国今年以来对欧盟出口的高增长或一定程度上源于美欧贸易摩擦下中欧贸易关系的缓和。尽管7月24日的中欧领导人会晤的结果表 明中欧在多个经贸相关问题上仍存分歧，但考虑到美欧在7月27日达成的贸易协议具有较大的不公平性并引起了欧盟内部的担忧，且后续特朗普的关税政 策仍有较大不确定性，欧盟或不会主动恶化与我国的经贸联系，下半年我国对欧盟出口仍有望保持一定韧性。 美国财政货币政策双宽松，明年外需仍有韧性 Ø 货币政策：方向仍然宽松，市场预期至明年底美联储或降息150bps至3%。尽管不同的机构对未来美联储的政策利率路径存在分歧，但都预期明年美联 储将延续降息周期。当前联邦基金期货定价至2026年底，美联储将降息至3-3.25%附近。同时，考虑到由特朗普提名的新一任美联储主席将在2026年5月接 任，2026H2美联储的货币政策或较当前预期更加宽松，对应的给美国经济总需求的刺激力度或也将更加显著。 Ø 财政政策：《大美丽法案》对未来1-3年美国经济拉动最为显著。7月4日，特朗普的《大美丽 ...

Group 1: Export Growth Outlook - China's export growth is expected to exceed market expectations, with Q3 and Q4 growth rates projected at 5.9% and 1.0% respectively, leading to an annual growth rate of 4.6%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than market expectations[1] - The contribution of net exports to GDP reached 1.7 percentage points in the first half of the year, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous year despite tariff impacts[1] - The high growth in exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa is driven by actual demand rather than solely by "export grabbing" strategies[1] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Policy Impacts - The adjustment of tariffs in major transshipment regions, including ASEAN, is limited, with most rates still lower than those imposed on China, thus minimizing the impact on transshipment trade[1] - The improvement in China-EU trade relations is partly due to the uncertainties surrounding US-EU trade, which may prevent the EU from worsening its economic ties with China[1] - The overall economic resilience of emerging markets, reflected in higher PMI readings compared to developed countries, supports the demand for Chinese exports[1] Group 3: US Economic Policy and External Demand - The US is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with market predictions indicating a potential reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rates to 3-3.25% by the end of 2026[1] - The "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to boost US economic output by 1.21% over the next 30 years, with significant positive impacts on GDP expected in 2026-2028[1] - The potential for renewed fiscal policies by the Trump administration ahead of the 2026 midterm elections could further stimulate US economic demand[1] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies remains a significant risk, necessitating close monitoring of US-China trade negotiations[1] - High-frequency data should be interpreted alongside leading indicators like PMI new orders to avoid prediction errors regarding export trends[1] - Increased geopolitical tensions could negatively impact global trade and, consequently, China's export performance[1]