Core Viewpoint - Concerns about a significant decline in China's exports in the second half of the year due to weakening "export grabbing" momentum are addressed. However, it is anticipated that exports will exceed expectations, driven by resilient economic growth in emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, as well as improved trade relations with Europe amid US tariff uncertainties. The forecast for export growth is 4.6% for the year, surpassing market expectations by approximately 1.6 percentage points, which may lead to a GDP growth rate exceeding expectations by about 0.3 percentage points [3][20]. Export Performance - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to diversification in trade and the influence of "export grabbing." The export growth to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU has been significant, with respective growth rates of 13.6%, 24.4%, and 7.3% in the first seven months of the year. This diversification has resulted in a 2.9 percentage point decrease in the share of exports to the US [13][14][17]. - The high growth in exports to emerging markets is not solely driven by "export grabbing" but is also supported by actual demand from these regions. Emerging markets have shown better economic performance compared to developed countries, as indicated by manufacturing PMI data [4][17]. Trade Relations with Europe - The high growth in exports to the EU is partly due to improved trade relations between China and Europe amid US-EU trade tensions. Despite existing differences in trade discussions, the EU is unlikely to worsen its economic ties with China, allowing for continued resilience in exports to the EU [5][20]. US Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The US is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with projections indicating a potential interest rate cut of 150 basis points by the end of next year. This is anticipated to support US economic demand, which will positively impact external demand for Chinese exports [6][21]. - The "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to significantly boost the US economy over the next 1-3 years, with GDP expected to exceed previous forecasts by 1.21% over the next 30 years. The act's immediate effects are expected to be positive, particularly in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections [7][22].

Group 1: Export Growth Outlook - China's export growth is expected to exceed market expectations, with Q3 and Q4 growth rates projected at 5.9% and 1.0% respectively, leading to an annual growth rate of 4.6%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than market expectations[1] - The contribution of net exports to GDP reached 1.7 percentage points in the first half of the year, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous year despite tariff impacts[1] - The high growth in exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa is driven by actual demand rather than solely by "export grabbing" strategies[1] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Policy Impacts - The adjustment of tariffs in major transshipment regions, including ASEAN, is limited, with most rates still lower than those imposed on China, thus minimizing the impact on transshipment trade[1] - The improvement in China-EU trade relations is partly due to the uncertainties surrounding US-EU trade, which may prevent the EU from worsening its economic ties with China[1] - The overall economic resilience of emerging markets, reflected in higher PMI readings compared to developed countries, supports the demand for Chinese exports[1] Group 3: US Economic Policy and External Demand - The US is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with market predictions indicating a potential reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rates to 3-3.25% by the end of 2026[1] - The "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to boost US economic output by 1.21% over the next 30 years, with significant positive impacts on GDP expected in 2026-2028[1] - The potential for renewed fiscal policies by the Trump administration ahead of the 2026 midterm elections could further stimulate US economic demand[1] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies remains a significant risk, necessitating close monitoring of US-China trade negotiations[1] - High-frequency data should be interpreted alongside leading indicators like PMI new orders to avoid prediction errors regarding export trends[1] - Increased geopolitical tensions could negatively impact global trade and, consequently, China's export performance[1]