证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观点评 宏观点评 20250818 中国出口增速或持续超市场预期 ■ 核心观点:市场此前担忧随着"抢出口"动能的减弱,我国下半年出口 或面临较大下行压力,四季度出口有较大回落风险,预期全年出口增速 或仅有 3%左右;而我们认为,受益于东盟和非洲等新兴市场经济体的 经济增长韧性,以及欧美关税不确定性下中欧贸易的改善,我国下半年 出口有望继续超预期,预计三、四季度出口增速分别录得 5.9%和 1.0%, 全年出口增速有望录得 4.6%,高出市场预期约 1.6个百分点,对应 GDP 增速可能高于预期约 0.3个百分点。而展望明年,我国外需仍然有较强 的韧性,这主要受益于美国仍然趋于宽松的货币与财政政策。尽管宽松 的货币与财政政策预期已被市场较充分地定价,但其给美国经济的支撑 将在明年逐步显现。 ■ 对新兴市场经济体出口的高增并非仅由"抢出口"主导 >一方面,新对等关税框架下,包括东盟在内的主要转口地区关税调整幅 度不大,大多仍低于我国目前被加征的税率,且针对转运的 40%存在界 定和实施层面的困难,因此对转口贸易造成的影响或相对有限;另一方 面,对东盟、非洲等地区的出口高增长并非单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French Finance Minister Eric Lombard emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen tariff barriers against Chinese imports to protect its industrial economy, highlighting the risk of China's dominance in global market shares across various industries [1][3]. Group 1: Government Actions and Statements - Lombard states that Europe must take action across all industrial sectors to prevent China's production capacity, which exceeds 50% of the global market share in many industries, from destroying European industry [1]. - The European response has already included actions against the steel and automotive sectors, but Lombard calls for a revision of rules to allow broader measures against imports from China [1]. - French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci expresses concern that Chinese manufacturing, previously directed towards the U.S., is now shifting to Europe, creating a sensitive and dangerous situation for European industries [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Tensions - The recent announcement by China to impose anti-dumping duties on European brandy, while exempting major cognac producers that agree to set minimum price levels, is a direct response to the EU's decision to impose tariffs of up to 45% on domestic electric vehicles by 2024 [1]. - Reports indicate that China plans to shorten a planned two-day summit with EU leaders to one day, reflecting escalating tensions between Europe and Beijing [1]. - A researcher from the Jacques Delors Institute notes that Europe aims to rebuild its manufacturing sector and cannot afford the shock from a large influx of Chinese imports [3].

Group 1: Trade Tensions and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum, and a 25% tariff on automobiles, affecting approximately 70% of EU exports to the U.S., valued at around €380 billion [3] - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures, with the first list targeting U.S. agricultural products and motorcycles, amounting to about €21 billion, and a second list under negotiation, including Boeing aircraft and U.S. automobiles, valued at approximately €95 billion [3] - The potential implementation of these tariffs could lead to a significant reduction in EU exports to the U.S., possibly by more than half, and could have unpredictable impacts on the U.S. economy [8] Group 2: China-Europe Relations - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Europe aims to stabilize China-EU relations amid rising tensions, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties [5] - The visit includes high-level dialogues, such as the 13th round of China-EU strategic dialogue and discussions with Germany and France, indicating China's intent to foster cooperation despite existing challenges [5][6] - The current geopolitical landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for China and the EU, with a focus on structured dialogue to address trade issues and enhance collaboration [6][8]