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广发期货日评-20250718
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range and the central position continues to move up during the new round of US trade policy negotiation window, but caution is needed when testing key positions. For the stock index, unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - The central bank's increase in open - market investment has improved the bond market sentiment, and the future situation of the tax - period capital and government bond supply needs to be observed. Curve strategy can appropriately bet on steepening [2] - There is more long - short game in the short - term gold market with support at the 60 - day moving average. Buying on dips is recommended for gold and silver, and there may be a phased pulse - type rise in silver [2] - The container shipping index is expected to oscillate strongly. For the EC2508 contract, unilateral operation is recommended to wait and see, and multi - material and short - raw material arbitrage can be considered [2] - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and the decline in apparent demand should be noted. For steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, buying on dips is recommended [2] - For copper, attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The aluminum market has a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation. For non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to different varieties [2] - The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. For different energy and chemical products, various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range operation, and buying on dips are recommended according to their fundamentals [2] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended according to different varieties [2] - For special commodities and new energy products, trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended according to different varieties [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The central bank's open - market operation has improved sentiment, and future capital and supply situations need to be observed. Curve strategy can bet on steepening [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold has support at the 60 - day moving average, and buying on dips is recommended. Silver may have a phased pulse - type rise [2] Shipping and Industrial Materials Sector - **Container Shipping Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly. Unilateral operation on the EC2508 contract should wait and see, and arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2] - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are poor. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand, and buying on dips is recommended [2] - **Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke**: Black market sentiment has improved, and buying on dips is recommended [2] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Aluminum**: There is a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation, and different price ranges are given for different varieties [2] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. Different trading strategies are given for different energy and chemical products according to their fundamentals [2] Agricultural Products Sector - Different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended for different agricultural products [2] Special Commodities and New Energy Sector - Different trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended for special commodities and new energy products [2]
广发期货日评-20250716
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 07:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), T2509, TF2509, TS2509 (Treasury Bonds), AU2510, AG2510 (Precious Metals), RB2510, I2509, JM2509, J2509 (Black Metals), SH2509 (Caustic Soda), M2509, RM509 (Meals), P2509, Y25 (Fats and Oils), CF2509 (Cotton) [2] - **Bearish**: FH2509 (Hogs), SR2509 (Sugar), JD2509 (Eggs), SA2509 (Soda Ash), FG2509 (Glass), RU2509 (Rubber) [2] - **Neutral**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2507, IM2509 (Stock Index Futures), EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line) (for unilateral operation), RB2510 (for unilateral operation), CU2508, AO2509, AL2508, AD2511, ZN2508, SN2508, NI2508, SS2508 (Non - ferrous Metals), UR2509, PX2509, TA2509, PF2508, PR2509, EG2509, V2509, BZ2603, EB2508, BR2508, LLDPE2509, PP2509, MA2509 (Energy and Chemicals), C2509 (Corn), AP2510 (Apples), CJ2601 (Jujubes), PK2510 (Peanuts), Si2509 (Industrial Silicon), PS2507 (Polysilicon), LC2509 (Lithium Carbonate) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Entering a new window for US trade policy negotiations, the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, with the central position continuing to rise. However, caution is needed when testing key positions. The market shows a structural pattern with sector rotation and shocks [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's increased purchase of new - style reverse repurchase shows a caring attitude, driving the bond market sentiment to improve. The performance of the capital market during the tax period needs further observation [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The gold price remains in a high - level shock above $3300 per ounce, with certain support at the 60 - day moving average. Silver may have phased impulse - type rises, but chasing high prices should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the 12 - contract is bullish [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved. Steel mills' restocking is supported, and the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore are expected to rise [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and non - US regions have returned to fundamental pricing. The medium - term oversupply pattern in the copper market remains unchanged [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The performance of different varieties varies. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the inventory situation is poor. The supply and demand of some chemical products are also facing different challenges [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of different agricultural products are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. For example, the potential supply pressure of hogs is accumulating, and the price of sugar is expected to decline on rebounds [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by factors such as spot price changes and raw material supply [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Suggested to wait and see for now, and consider interval operations and appropriate long - positions on dips for the unilateral strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's actions have improved market sentiment. Pay attention to the capital market and central bank's open - market operations. Consider appropriate curve - steepening strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level shock, and silver may have phased rises. Consider buying on dips if the gold price breaks through the support level, but be cautious when chasing high prices [2]. **Commodity Futures** - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to be strongly volatile, bullish on the 12 - contract. Suggested to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment has improved, and steel mills' restocking is supported. Suggested to go long on dips for iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and the copper market has a medium - term oversupply pattern. Pay attention to the support levels of different varieties [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the supply of some chemical products is affected by factors such as device restarts and inventory [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. Different trading strategies are suggested for different varieties [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by spot price changes and raw material supply. Suggested trading strategies include waiting and seeing and short - selling on highs [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure. Suggested to wait and see [2].