Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In July, the bond market oscillated weakly due to factors such as the central bank's protection of the capital market, short - term settlement of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the "anti - involution" driving the equity and commodity markets. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively [1][8]. - In August, from the fundamental perspective, focus on the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI in domestic and external demand, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the improvement of the prosperity index. Also, observe the possible disturbances of the improvement of key data such as real estate on the fundamentals and expectations [2]. - In terms of supply, the single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds are expected to drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August may be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2]. - Regarding the capital market, there may be phased fluctuations due to the end of the month and the peak of inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) maturities. After entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2]. - From the policy perspective, the Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - In terms of institutional behavior, institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Steepened Bearishly - In July, affected by multiple factors, the bond market oscillated weakly. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively. The term spread widened by 2BP to 32BP [1][8]. - The yield curve of Treasury bonds steepened bearishly in July, with the medium - and long - end yields generally rising more. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds generally increased [9]. - Overseas, US inflation continued to rise slightly, labor data improved, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in July. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut decreased. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted further [10]. 2. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: The Capital Market is Likely to Return to Normal, and Supply will Reach a Peak in the Second Half of the Year - **Fundamentals**: For the July macro - data to be released, pay attention to the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI, and the impact of real estate data improvement on fundamentals and expectations [2][28]. - **Supply**: The single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds will drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August is expected to be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2][41]. - **Capital Market**: There may be phased fluctuations at the end of the month, but after entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2][48]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3][61]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds. The adjustment of government bond VAT may also affect institutional allocation logic [3][68]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: Focus on the Balance between Stocks and Bonds, the Bond Market will Oscillate Downward, and Pay Attention to Trading Opportunities - In August, the main points of concern are the return of the capital market to a loose state under the central bank's protection, the shift from the stock - bond seesaw to the balance between stocks and bonds, the peak supply of government bonds due to the acceleration of special bond issuance, and the short - term impact of the change in government bond VAT [74]. - In terms of interest rates, the bond market's capital market in August is likely to return to a stable state under the central bank's protection. The bond market is still in a favorable environment, but the implementation of broad - based monetary policies needs to be awaited. The subsequent market is likely to evolve from the stock - bond seesaw to a balanced state. Short - term bond interest rates may decline marginally. Strategies include maintaining an appropriate duration, focusing on band trading, paying attention to the trading value of old bonds and the allocation value of new bonds, taking profits when yields are low, and increasing allocations when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.75% [76]. 3. Important Economic Calendar for August - The table provides the expected release dates and market expectations of various economic indicators in July and August, including foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing scale, etc. [78]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the 10-year government bond yield in China is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.80% from August to October, with stringent conditions required for a downward breakthrough [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is anticipated to experience volatility during August to October, with mid to short-term bonds expected to perform steadily, leading to a steeper yield curve compared to the current state [1] - In August, the pressure on the bond market may not be significant due to a peak in government bond supply, and monetary policy will need to support liquidity alongside fiscal needs [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - If the bond market experiences intensified adjustments, the central bank may consider restarting open market operations for government bonds [1] - The focus on preventing capital turnover and managing risks suggests that liquidity is more likely to remain loose rather than further easing [1] Group 3: Future Risks and Economic Indicators - The transition between the third and fourth quarters is identified as a potential risk window, as government bond supply is expected to decrease, leading to a lower probability of liquidity hedging [1] - There may be a risk of rising consumer price index and producer price index as the economy enters a verification period for anti-involution effects [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The second half of the year may present lower odds for the bond market and higher odds for the stock market, driven by the migration of household deposits and insurance funds into equities [1] - The stock market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a gradual emergence of wealth effects, while the bond market's pricing is becoming less sensitive to fundamentals and liquidity, making it more reactive to changes in price expectations [1]

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 744 billion to CNY 30.92 trillion during the week of July 28 to August 1[1] - In July, the total growth was only CNY 2,469 billion, significantly lower than the historical average of over CNY 10 trillion for the same month[1] - The decline in scale is attributed to ongoing net value decreases and redemption pressures, with short-term and medium-term debt products experiencing maximum drawdowns of 8bp and 6bp respectively[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank market decreased from 107.41% to 107.34% during the week of July 28 to August 1[3] - Non-bank institutions saw a rebound in leverage rates, increasing from 112.10% to 112.34%[3] - Exchange leverage rates also declined slightly from 122.47% to 122.43% during the same period[3] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds decreased from 5.49 years to 5.45 years[4] - Credit bond fund duration reached a historical high of 2.81 years, up from 2.78 years[4] - Short and medium-term bond fund durations decreased to 1.01 years and 1.65 years respectively[4] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - The planned issuance of government bonds increased to CNY 5,785 billion for the week of August 4-8, up from CNY 5,174 billion[47] - Net issuance of government bonds rose from CNY 2,876 billion to CNY 3,390 billion, primarily due to a significant increase in national bond net issuance[47] - Local government bond issuance for the week of July 28 to August 1 was CNY 3,372 billion, with a net issuance of CNY 2,360 billion[50]

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a relatively loose liquidity stance, with market institutions expecting no tightening of funds in August [1][2] - The liquidity gap in August is estimated to be around 200 billion yuan, indicating manageable pressure [1] - Government bond issuance is expected to peak in August, with net financing around 1.2 trillion yuan, contributing to the liquidity landscape [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is anticipated to face increased pressure due to high government bond supply, with monthly net financing potentially reaching 1.5 to 1.6 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank may utilize various liquidity management tools, including OMO, MLF, and reverse repos, to stabilize the market [2] - Recent economic data does not support a shift in monetary policy, reinforcing the expectation of stable liquidity conditions [2][3] Group 3 - Risks to liquidity are more influenced by institutional market behavior rather than fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting the need to monitor bank liabilities and lending capabilities [3] - The decline in deposit rates and the siphoning effect from the equity market may exacerbate deposit outflows, particularly affecting joint-stock banks [3] - The recent reduction in leverage in the bond market is expected to help control the sensitivity of institutions to fluctuations in funding rates [3]

Group 1: Market Liquidity - In July, the overnight funding rate rose significantly to 1.53% and then to 1.65% on July 24, raising concerns about liquidity[1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net amount of 601.8 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos on July 25, indicating a supportive stance on liquidity[1] - By the end of July, the overnight funding rate decreased to 1.36%, with the balance of 7-day reverse repos significantly higher than seasonal levels[1] Group 2: Government Debt Supply - It is estimated that in August 2025, government debt issuance will be between 2.17 trillion and 2.39 trillion yuan, with net financing close to 1.17 trillion to 1.39 trillion yuan[5] - From January to July 2025, net financing from ordinary government bonds reached 2.56 trillion yuan, with various types of bonds contributing to a total of 9.02 trillion yuan utilized, accounting for 65% of the annual quota of 13.86 trillion yuan[5][27] - The issuance of local government bonds is progressing slightly faster than that of national bonds[5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The 1-year interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rate rose slightly after reaching around 1.6% in early July, with the market beginning to see price increases[6] - The maturity scale of CDs in August increased to 3.07 trillion yuan, indicating heightened renewal pressure[6] - The 1-year CD rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.7%, with rates above 1.65% considered to have certain allocation value[6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The capital market in August does not have a basis for tightening. Although the bond market has become desensitized to capital and fundamental information recently, it will eventually return to these two concerns. Currently, the Sino - US tariff negotiations have not released more positive information, and the latest economic data does not support a shift in monetary policy [2][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Judgment of August Capital Market - In July, after the capital interest rate dropped to nearly 1.3% at the beginning of the month, there were two significant increases. On July 25, the central bank immediately made a large - scale net investment of 601.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase to support the capital market, indicating that the central bank's attitude of supporting the capital market has not changed. The overnight capital interest rate has dropped to 1.36%, and the balance of 7 - day reverse repurchase is significantly higher than the seasonal level, similar to the situation in the second quarter [2][9] 2. Open Market - In August, the maturity of MLF is 300 billion yuan, and the maturity of outright reverse repurchase is 900 billion yuan, totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, less than the 1.5 trillion yuan in July. Since May, the combined caliber of these two tools has been net investment, so there is no need to worry too much. Starting from August, the maturity time and operation time of MLF will change from misaligned to consistent, solving the problem of affecting market expectations for medium - term liquidity [3][14] 3. Government Bond Supply - It is expected that in August 2025, the government bond issuance will be 2.17 - 2.39 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be 1.17 - 1.39 trillion yuan, close to the 1.25 trillion yuan in July. From January to July 2025, a total of 9.02 trillion yuan of the annual quota has been used, accounting for 65% of the annual 13.86 trillion yuan, with the local bond issuance progress slightly faster than that of national bonds. There are new policy tools to be launched, and they are expected to be implemented in the third quarter [4][17][18] 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Recently, the increase in market risk appetite has not only pressured the bond market but also disturbed the inter - bank capital market. The 1 - year CD interest rate started to rise slightly after reaching around 1.6% at the beginning of July. The maturity scale of CDs in August will rise slightly to 3.07 trillion yuan, increasing the pressure on renewal. Before the policy interest rate is further lowered, the 1 - year CD interest rate is likely to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and there is a certain allocation value at 1.65% and above. Unless the central bank tightens liquidity investment, the probability of a significant price increase for issuance is not high, and the CD interest rate in August will mainly fluctuate seasonally [5][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range and the central position continues to move up during the new round of US trade policy negotiation window, but caution is needed when testing key positions. For the stock index, unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - The central bank's increase in open - market investment has improved the bond market sentiment, and the future situation of the tax - period capital and government bond supply needs to be observed. Curve strategy can appropriately bet on steepening [2] - There is more long - short game in the short - term gold market with support at the 60 - day moving average. Buying on dips is recommended for gold and silver, and there may be a phased pulse - type rise in silver [2] - The container shipping index is expected to oscillate strongly. For the EC2508 contract, unilateral operation is recommended to wait and see, and multi - material and short - raw material arbitrage can be considered [2] - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and the decline in apparent demand should be noted. For steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, buying on dips is recommended [2] - For copper, attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The aluminum market has a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation. For non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to different varieties [2] - The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. For different energy and chemical products, various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range operation, and buying on dips are recommended according to their fundamentals [2] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended according to different varieties [2] - For special commodities and new energy products, trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended according to different varieties [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The central bank's open - market operation has improved sentiment, and future capital and supply situations need to be observed. Curve strategy can bet on steepening [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold has support at the 60 - day moving average, and buying on dips is recommended. Silver may have a phased pulse - type rise [2] Shipping and Industrial Materials Sector - **Container Shipping Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly. Unilateral operation on the EC2508 contract should wait and see, and arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2] - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are poor. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand, and buying on dips is recommended [2] - **Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke**: Black market sentiment has improved, and buying on dips is recommended [2] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Aluminum**: There is a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation, and different price ranges are given for different varieties [2] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. Different trading strategies are given for different energy and chemical products according to their fundamentals [2] Agricultural Products Sector - Different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended for different agricultural products [2] Special Commodities and New Energy Sector - Different trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended for special commodities and new energy products [2]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-07-10 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《策略选择"骑虎难下"？——流动 性周报 20250706》 - 2025.07.07 固收专题 下半年政府债供给怎么看？ ⚫ 国债发行节奏整体偏快，下半年供给压力趋于缓和 上半年普通国债发行 6.83 万亿，净融资 2.53 万亿，同比多增 3438 亿，发行期数减少、单期规模增加；特别国债发行 10550 亿，净 融资 8550 亿，同比多增 6050 亿，集中到期情况下，发行进度仍靠前。 我们估算下半年国债约有 7.78 万亿待发，预计实现净融资 3.19 万亿，下半年供给压力有望缓和。其中，普通国债下半年约有 6.94 万 亿待发，预计节奏将相对平稳。特别国债有 7450 亿待发，单期规模 或有所增加。综合来看，全部国债的发行高峰或集中于 7-9 月，单月 发行 1.3-1.5 万亿。净融资高峰有较大概率出现在 8、9、11 月。 ⚫ 化债主线切换至稳增长，下半年地方债供给料将加速 上半年地方新增一 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting improving demand [1] - The current PMI is primarily affected by the backlog of finished goods inventory, but as inventory is gradually digested, new order growth momentum is expected to be released further [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, likely linked to the acceleration of "two heavy" projects and stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, possibly due to reduced offline travel activity after holiday effects [1] Group 3: Government Debt Supply and Funding - In the first half of the year, the fiscal supply was robust, with 6.66 trillion yuan of government bonds issued, representing 51% of the annual quota [3] - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in June, with 4.4 trillion yuan of new quotas, and 48% already issued [3] - The overall issuance volume is expected to remain stable in the second half, with a projected issuance of 5.8 trillion yuan, keeping liquidity pressure manageable [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in local government special bond issuance, which may enhance funding for local-led projects [4] - The central bank's monetary policy tools are anticipated to support financing for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, potentially increasing infrastructure investment [4] - The economic recovery remains weak, with external demand showing marginal improvement, but internal economic momentum still requires strengthening [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderately loose monetary policy" remains unchanged, and stabilizing growth is still the central bank's primary short - term goal. If economic growth shows no improvement and faces more pressure, a new round of broad monetary policy may be launched [1]. - In July, the large - scale supply of government bonds and tax - payment factors will significantly interfere with the capital market. However, the central bank's support for the capital market is expected to continue, with overnight and 7 - day capital interest rates likely to remain stable [1]. - The supply - demand structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) will further improve in July, with the maturity scale of CDs decreasing and the interest rate having room to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank made substantial net injections to support cross - quarter liquidity, leading to a divergence in capital prices. Overnight capital interest rates were stable, while 7 - day rates rose significantly, and the liquidity stratification phenomenon was obvious [5]. - The second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting changed the wording, but it doesn't rule out the possibility of broad monetary policy in the third quarter. If the economy doesn't improve, new policies may be introduced [5]. - In July, large government bond supply and tax - payment factors will affect the capital market, but the central bank's support is expected to continue. The overnight capital interest rate may fluctuate around the policy rate, and the 7 - day rate may return to around 1.5% [6]. - It is estimated that in July 2025, government bond issuance will be 2.61 - 2.86 trillion yuan, with net financing of 1.45 - 1.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than in June. The supply of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase, and new local government special bonds are expected to be the main type in the third quarter [6]. - In July, MLF and buy - out repurchase maturities total 1.5 trillion yuan, more than in June. The central bank's operation method has enhanced its control over medium - and long - term liquidity [10]. - Thanks to the central bank's support, in June, CDs maintained high - volume issuance with stable or decreasing prices. In July, the supply - demand structure of CDs will improve, and the interest rate has room to decline [10]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From June 23 to June 27, overnight capital interest rates were stable (DR001 around 1.37%, R001 between 1.44% - 1.46%), while 7 - day rates rose (DR007 from 1.51% to 1.70%, R007 from 1.56% to 1.92%), and the liquidity stratification was obvious [13]. - During this period, the bank's capital lending scale increased, the money fund's lending scale decreased, and the bond market leverage ratio continued to rise [17]. - From June 23 to June 27, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with the 3M national - share discount rate and half - year national - share transfer discount rate showing corresponding changes [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of June 27, the central bank's total balance of open - market operations was 1168.85 billion yuan, including 202.75 billion yuan in pledged repurchase, 480 billion yuan in buy - out repurchase, and 515 billion yuan in MLF [23]. - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, with 106.72 billion yuan in pledged repurchase. In June, buy - out repurchase and MLF maturities and net injections were as expected. From June 30 to July 4, pledged repurchase maturities reached 202.75 billion yuan [27]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From June 23 to June 27, treasury bond issuance was 11.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 11.1 billion yuan; local bond issuance was 64.164 billion yuan, with net financing of 56.0393 billion yuan [33]. - It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, treasury bond issuance will be 0 yuan, with net financing of - 8.015 billion yuan; local bond issuance will be 7.2139 billion yuan, with net financing of 2.1676 billion yuan [33]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From June 23 to June 27, government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, including 33.1 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 45.881 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, the net payment will be - 0.594 billion yuan [39]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, inter - bank CD issuance was 72.64 billion yuan, with net financing of - 41.15 billion yuan. The maturity scale from June 30 to July 4 was 27.67 billion yuan. By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance; by term type, 3M CDs had the highest issuance [42]. - The overall issuance success rate was 94%. State - owned banks and other banks had a 100% success rate, and 3M CDs had a 95% success rate. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and terms decreased [42][43]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, despite the tightened cross - quarter liquidity, the yields of secondary - market CDs of all terms increased slightly, and the yield curve was partially inverted [60]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of May 2025 was 0.52%. From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, and government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 47.739 billion yuan [64].