Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and trading of local government bonds, including an overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary supply, and the characteristics of secondary trading. It details the scale, distribution, and trends of local government bond issuance and trading, as well as the participation of different investor groups. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of July 4, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 51.9 trillion yuan, indicating continuous market expansion [3][11]. - Among the outstanding local bonds, the proportion of new special bonds exceeded 43%, and the proportion of refinancing special bonds was 21% [3][11]. - In terms of the investment direction of special bonds, shantytown renovation, park and new - area construction, and rural revitalization were the major investment fields, with stock balances of 1.97 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of July 4, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock size, with 3.42 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.15 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Anhui also had local bond stocks of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 175.91 million yuan were issued, including 29.54 million yuan of new special bonds and 0.7 million yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment fields of special bond funds [4][18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in July had reached 286.32 million yuan, accounting for 7.32% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of 7 - 10 - year local bonds was relatively high last week, reaching 49.75%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for major terms were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 17.84BP, while the spread of 20 - year local bonds over the same - term treasury bonds slightly widened to 14.9BP [4][28]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week significantly rebounded compared with two weeks ago, indicating a warming of primary bidding sentiment [4][28]. - Last week, two provinces had new issuances. Inner Mongolia issued 689 million yuan of local bonds this month, mainly with terms of 7 - 10 years; Ningxia issued 1.0703 billion yuan, with terms concentrated within 7 years. The average issuance rates were both below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of July 4, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.77%, and the spread over the same - term treasury bonds was 12.67BP, at the 18% quantile in the past 24 years. The price - difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 38% and 53% respectively [5][36]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for major terms increased slightly. The highest weekly turnover rate was for bonds over 10 years, with a reading of 1.14%. In terms of regions, Guangdong had the most trading volumes last week, with 50 transactions. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 17.3 years, and the average yield was 1.91% [5][41]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds reaching 3.0119 billion yuan, and the purchase proportion of bonds over 20 - 30 years reaching 81.92% [5][47].

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-07-10 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《策略选择"骑虎难下"？——流动 性周报 20250706》 - 2025.07.07 固收专题 下半年政府债供给怎么看？ ⚫ 国债发行节奏整体偏快，下半年供给压力趋于缓和 上半年普通国债发行 6.83 万亿，净融资 2.53 万亿，同比多增 3438 亿，发行期数减少、单期规模增加；特别国债发行 10550 亿，净 融资 8550 亿，同比多增 6050 亿，集中到期情况下，发行进度仍靠前。 我们估算下半年国债约有 7.78 万亿待发，预计实现净融资 3.19 万亿，下半年供给压力有望缓和。其中，普通国债下半年约有 6.94 万 亿待发，预计节奏将相对平稳。特别国债有 7450 亿待发，单期规模 或有所增加。综合来看，全部国债的发行高峰或集中于 7-9 月，单月 发行 1.3-1.5 万亿。净融资高峰有较大概率出现在 8、9、11 月。 ⚫ 化债主线切换至稳增长，下半年地方债供给料将加速 上半年地方新增一 ...

6月我国制造业PMI为49.7%，前值为49.5%。制造业供需两端持续修复，生产指数环比回升0.3个百分 点，至51%，新订单指数环比回升0.4个百分点，至50.2%，新出口订单环比回升0.2个百分点，至 47.7%。值得注意的是，当前制造业PMI主要受产成品库存积压的阶段性拖累，随着库存逐步消化，叠 加需求端持续修复，新订单增长动能有望进一步释放，推动制造业景气水平稳步回升。 6月非制造业PMI为50.5%，较前值回升0.2个百分点。建筑业PMI回升1.8个百分点，至52.8%。建筑业 PMI边际回升，可能与"两重"项目加快落地、更大力度推动房地产止跌回稳等政策相关。服务业PMI环 比回落0.1个百分点，至50.1%。这可能与线下出行热度下行有关，随着五一、端午节假日影响退去，住 宿餐饮、道路运输等行业景气度有所回落。不过6月线上消费等服务业景气度回升或起到一定对冲作 用，此外货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业商务活动指数均处于高景气区间，综合来看，服务 业整体变化不大。 最近，期债总体在前期高点附近震荡整理。 6月PMI环比回升 政府债供给与资金面 今年上半年财政供给力度不弱，尤其国债供给进度较快，地 ...

华福证券 固 收 研 究 Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 7 月 1 日 【华福固收】7 月资金面关注什么 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号：S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 黄紫仪 邮箱：hzy30614@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 Table_Firs3 投资要点： e p y T t r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s F _ e l b a T Table_First|Table_ReportDate r i Table_First|Table_Contacter Table_First|Table_RelateReport 流 动 性 周 报 2025年二季度货币政策委员会季度例会将2024年四季度以来一直 提及的"择机降准降息"表述改为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节 奏"，并且新增加"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹 好总供给和总需求的关系"、"物价持续低位 ...

核 心 观 点 5月以来，随着政策利率下调，资金面进一步转松，但降准落地后资金利率反而上行。那么，6月政府债供给 多少？流动性缺口有多大？资金面将趋紧或者更松？ 宽松落地，市场利率怎么走？ 资金利率方面 ， 5月资金利率延续下行，从节奏来看，降准降息等一揽子金融 政策发布后，资金利率快速下行，而在5月15日降准落地后，资金面反而趋于收敛，资金利率中枢并未进一 步下行。 央行操作方面， 下旬开始逆回购转为小额净投放，同时MLF超额续作，月中落地的降准也向市场 投放1万亿元左右的流动性。 长债利率方面， 随着降准降息落地，长端利率演绎利好出尽的行情，此外，随 着关税政策缓和，市场对于基本面预期有所上修，债市有所走弱。 债券托管方面， 4月债券托管规模环比增 速放缓，分券种看，利率债托管环比增量收缩，其中地方债继续贡献主要增量；分机构看，广义基金增持规 模有所下降，商业银行托管规模环比增量扩大。 特别国债启动，供给压力多大？ 国债方面， 6月将发行6期附息国债、7期贴现国债和2只储蓄国债，此外， 还将续发3只超长期特别国债和新发1只中央金融机构注资特别国债，我们预计6月国债或将发行1.38万亿元， 净融资规模在49 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the stock of local bonds reaching 50.79 trillion yuan as of May 16, 2025 [3][11]. - The issuance of local government bonds last week totaled 197.249 billion yuan, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [4][18]. - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend [5][36]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of May 16, 2025, the stock of local bonds reached 50.79 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [3][11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were all over 1 trillion yuan. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of May 16, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock, with each exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had a stock of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 197.249 billion yuan were issued, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [4][18]. - As of May 16, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in May had reached 30.168 billion yuan, accounting for 5.47% of the monthly local bond issuance [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of 7 - 10 - year local bonds last week had a relatively high proportion, reaching 42.26%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the 30 - year local bond issuance rate and the same - term treasury bond slightly widened to 23.65BP, and the spread of the 20 - year local bond to the same - term treasury bond slightly narrowed to 14.35BP [4][27]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week increased slightly compared with two weeks ago, and the primary tender sentiment significantly recovered [4][27]. - Five provinces issued new bonds last week. Anhui had the largest issuance volume this month, with terms mainly concentrated in 7 - 10 years and 10 - 20 years. Fujian followed, with terms mainly concentrated within 7 years and 10 - 20 years. Guangxi, Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan also had relatively large new issuance amounts. Except for Guangxi and Inner Mongolia, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of May 16, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.9%, with a spread of 22.07BP to the same - term treasury bond, at the 72.6% quantile since 2024. The quantiles of the price spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 72.6% and 88.2% respectively [5][36]. - The turnover rate of local bonds rebounded last week, and the turnover rates of all term varieties significantly increased compared with two weeks ago. The highest weekly turnover rate was for varieties within 10 years, at 1.02% [5][43]. - In terms of regions, Shandong had over 300 trading transactions and Jiangsu had over 200 trading transactions last week. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 16.53 years, with an average yield of 1.96% [5][43]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 57.304 billion yuan, of which the purchase of varieties over 20 - 30 years accounted for 73%. Other institutions were all net sellers [5][44].

量化信用策略 截至 5 月 9 日数据，银行永续债及券商债策略近期胜率不低。从策略期限来看，上周短端策略超额收益有限，城投下 沉组合落后于中长端基准；中长端策略方面，除城投久期、哑铃型策略外，其余策略组合超额收益均为正，其中，金 融债与非金信用重仓策略近四周累计超额收益进一步拉开差距，尤其是金融债久期策略近期收益弹性有所增加。 品种久期跟踪 二级资本债成交久期创年内最高。截至 5 月 9 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.09 年、2.51 年，城投债与 产业债均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平 均成交期限分别为 4.19 年、3.59 年、2.30 年；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公 司债久期分别为 1.58 年、1.98 年、3.75 年、1.27 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，保险公司 债、租赁公司债位于较高历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，存量信用债中，民企地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与节前一周相比，非金融 非地产类产业债收 ...

利率 - 5 月，利率创新低 20250506 今年 5 月份债市的整体观点仍然是看多。尽管资金进入横盘期，央行迟迟未降 准降息，短期内没有进一步宽松信号，但从逻辑分析角度来看，宽松仍是大方 向。历史上 5 月债市大多数表现为下行，除了 2015 年、2017 年和 2020 年， 这些年份由于政府债集中供给、监管政策变化以及经济修复导致货币政策正常 化等因素影响。今年宏观背景与一季度完全不同，不确定性增加，但胜率仍然 较高。 当前资金利率与债市利率倒挂的情况如何影响市场？ 当前资金利率与债市利率之间出现倒挂，使得市场对继续做多产生疑虑。然而， 从历史经验来看，每当面对不确定性时，应保持坚定的大逻辑，即应对不确定 • 当前资金利率与债市利率倒挂引发市场疑虑，但历史经验表明，面对不确 定性应坚持宽松大方向。央行通过逆回购和 MLF 操作释放宽松信号，即使 短期内无进一步宽松，也不应犹豫，避免踏空。 • 中美关系不确定性依然很高，贸易谈判进展不应高估。尽管特朗普表示可 能降低关税，但中方要求美国拿出更多诚意。日本和越南与美国谈判也未 取得实质进展，中美关系仍对市场构成压力。 • 内部宏观微观压力逐渐显现，央行资金 ...

一、存量市场概览 截止上周五，地方债存量规模达到 50.49 万亿元。存续的地方债中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比 为 21%。明确资金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领域，存量余额均在 1 万亿以上。其次收费公路存量余额超过 8700 亿元，水利和生态项目存量余额也在 2000 亿以上。截止 4 月 25 日，广 东、江苏、山东地方债存量规模仍位居三甲，三省地方债存量规模均超过 3 万亿元，其余 GDP 大省如四川、浙江、湖 南、河南、河北、湖北存量规模也位于 2 万亿以上。 二、一级供给节奏 上周地方政府债共发行 1911.22 亿元，较前一周微降。其中，新增专项债 1167.07 亿元，再融资专项债 429.21 亿元。 分募集资金用途来看，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域，"置换隐性债务"发行 规模较上周有所下降。截至 4 月 25 日，4 月份特殊再融资专项债发行已有 2616.69 亿元，占当月地方债发行规模的 比例达到 37.74%。 发行期限结构方面，上周 1-7 年和 7-10 年期地方债发行占比相对较高，占比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the focus of monetary policy shifts from "stabilizing the exchange rate and preventing idle circulation" in Q1 to "stabilizing growth" since the start of the trade - war, the capital market re - balances. The capital market in April was generally balanced and loose, with capital interest rates moving closer to the 7D OMO policy rate. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [2][6]. - There may be a certain gap in the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The pressure on the bank's liability side and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May indicate the need for the central bank to provide liquidity support, especially medium - and long - term support. The order of loose monetary policy remains "reserve requirement ratio cut + structural monetary policy tools first, interest rate cut later" [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - In April, the capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 dropping from around 1.8% to around 1.6%, and the DR007 - R007 spread remaining within 10bp and even within 5bp from the middle of the month. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [6]. - In April, the net lending balance fluctuated around 3 trillion yuan, a historically low level, and the decline of certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates faced resistance after mid - April, indicating a possible gap in medium - and long - term bank liquidity. The government plans to use 5 trillion yuan in investment funds this year, with the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds starting issuance on April 24 and 7 more issues to be issued from May to June. As of April, 1.19 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds have been issued [7]. - The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The bank's liability side pressure and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May require the central bank to provide liquidity support. The mid - and long - term liquidity roll - over pressure in May has significantly decreased compared to April. If the "timely reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut" is implemented in May, it is expected to drive down the capital interest rate center [8][11]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From April 21 to April 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for medium - and long - term liquidity support. The capital market became loose after being balanced. DR001 dropped from 1.72% to 1.58%, R001 from 1.74% to 1.58%, DR007 from 1.71% to 1.64%, and R007 from 1.73% to 1.66%. The spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [12]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bank's capital lending scale increased slightly, with the daily net lending balance of state - owned and joint - stock banks rising from 2.81 trillion yuan to 3.27 trillion yuan, and that of money market funds decreasing from 2.13 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan [18]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bill interest rate changed little, with the 3M state - owned and joint - stock discount rate fluctuating slightly around 1%, and the six - month state - owned and joint - stock transfer discount rate rising from 1.04% to 1.09% [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of April 27, the central bank's open market operation balance was 10.3 trillion yuan, including 97.2 billion yuan in pledged repurchase balance, 5.1 trillion yuan in outright repurchase balance, and 4.657 trillion yuan in MLF balance. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 86.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 50.45 billion yuan of repurchase agreements matured [28]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From April 21 to April 25, 326 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 181.83 billion yuan; 191.123 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, including 75.066 billion yuan of new local bonds and 116.056 billion yuan of refinancing local bonds, with a net financing of 162.512 billion yuan. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, no treasury bonds will be issued, and 93.092 billion yuan of local bonds will be issued, with a net financing of 92.665 billion yuan [35]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From April 21 to April 25, the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, including - 131.83 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, the net payment of government bonds will be 121.08 billion yuan, all for local bonds [42]. 3.5 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, 749.6 billion yuan of CDs were issued, a month - on - month increase of 40 billion yuan; the net financing was - 19.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16.2 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 331.6 billion yuan of CDs matured, with significantly reduced maturity pressure. State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale. In terms of maturity types, 3M CDs had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 95%, with state - owned banks having the highest success rate of 99%, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs having a success rate of 95% [45]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, from April 21 to April 25, the issuance interest rates of CDs of various types of banks and different maturities basically remained at the previous week's level (changes within 1bp) [46]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, although the capital market became loose after being balanced, the primary market of CDs still needed to raise prices to attract demand, indicating a medium - and long - term liquidity gap in banks. The yields of CDs of various maturities in the secondary market changed little, with a change range of no more than 1bp. The CD yield curve showed a local inversion of 1bp at 9M and 1Y [66]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The excess reserve ratio in late March 2025 was estimated to be 1.05%. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market net injection was 86.4 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 94.413 billion yuan [73].