债券研究 第二，30y 国债明确采取新代码发行，公告发布后 250002 表现偏弱，短期内 2500006 或延续活跃券地位，关注后续 30y 普通国债换券失败风险。 2、关键期限国债单只规模：年初先上升后回落，后续或仍有提速空间 年初 2 年和 10 年期关键期限国债单只发行规模较大，普通国债发行靠前发力， 可能存在续发压力大、更快形成实物工作量、和让位特别国债等原因。随后披 露的 1 年国债单只规模下降至 1350 亿，不同的国债发行速度反应什么信息？ （1）4%赤字率对应关键期限国债单只发行规模年度均值在 1500 亿附近。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 国债发行进度真的快么？ ——2026Q1 政府债券供给展望及关注要点 一、国债：Q1 支数变化不大，单只规模上升后回落，后续存在提速空间 1、Q1 国债计划解读 第一，国债发行只数 2026 年一季度与 2025 年同期差异不大。 （2）国债单只规模先上升后下降，若后续延续 1350 亿的发行速度，全月均值 或在 1500 亿附近，符合 4%赤字率下的中性发行速度。 （3）若 Q1 净融资进度要赶上 2025 年，关键期限国债单只发行规模季度均 ...

中信证券研报称，预计2026年政府债总量供给可能温和增长。以2023~2025年国债净融资进度均值作为 参考，我们预测了2026年全年一般国债的净融资情况，预计Q2净供给压力可能较为集中。预计新增一 般债发行维持偏缓进度，新增专项债发行可能在Q2末存在发行高峰。2025年再融资债发行和地方债到 期比例加大，预计2026年这一特征会延续。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the liquidity remains ample as of late December 2025, with bank lending exceeding 60 trillion yuan, and key rates such as DR001 and R001 showing narrow fluctuations [10][24][39] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a monetary policy focused on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a potential alignment with fiscal debt issuance in 2026 [11][24] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term local government bonds, particularly 30-year bonds, which have improved liquidity and attracted institutional investors [18][20][39] Group 2 - The analysis of government debt issuance reveals that national bonds follow a strict issuance plan, while local bonds have more flexible issuance schedules, leading to discrepancies between planned and actual issuance [20][39] - The report outlines that local government bonds are primarily aimed at debt replacement, with average costs decreasing by over 2 percentage points in many regions, thus alleviating repayment pressures [21][39] - The planned issuance of local government bonds for Q1 2026 totals 1.61 trillion yuan, with a focus on potentially reducing the supply of 30-year bonds in favor of shorter maturities [22][39] Group 3 - The report indicates that the net financing from local government bonds was negative in recent weeks, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of future issuance strategies [42][39] - The analysis of the interbank market shows that the demand for short-term bonds remains strong, with significant net purchases observed in the secondary market [48][39] - The report suggests that the pricing of long-term bonds may not be attractive currently, with better value found in shorter maturities, reflecting market dynamics [49][39]

货币政策宽松预期受限，市场担忧政府债供给放量，山东债单日供给近 千亿，引发市场对筹码结构不稳固的担忧，空头力量未完全消退。 2026 年初债市预计震荡，十年国债利率波动区间 1.75%-1.85%，30 年国债利率约 2.3%。社融增速预计小幅上升 0.1%，政府债净融资预计 超万亿，银行杠杆票息策略空间有限。 通胀方面，小金属和贵金属价格上涨对 PPI 影响有限，因有色金属在 PPI 权重较低。预计 2026 年一季度 PPI 不会连续为正，明年 2 月 CPI 同比 预计达 1.5%，受春节错位和技术问题影响。 股市春节躁动对债市压力可控，单周涨幅超 10%才会对债券收益率产生 明显压力。央行通过流动性宽松和买入操作维稳市场，大型银行和保险 公司积极配置，无需过度担心政府债供给。 当前阶段应注重空间选择而非时间选择，十年国债利率区间 1.75%- 1.85%，30 年国债约 2.3%。银行杠杆票息策略舒适，调控空间有限， 应关注具体投资品种及其位置。 Q&A 2025 年债券市场在年底出现了较大调整，主要原因是什么？ 固收- 1 月债市展望 20251229 摘要 2025 年年底债券市场的调整主要有两个 ...

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，高频数据显示Q4有效需求不足持续挤压企业盈利空间。人民币升值或暂时接近到位，此前年底结汇需求集中释放使人民 币汇率明显升值，但央行或开始有意控制汇率升值幅度，中间价破7仍需企业套保率及跨境人民币结算占比进一步提升，预计明年中 后期大概率时机成熟。 海外方面，日本央行议息会议后，近期植田和男称正稳步接近2%通胀目标，将继续加息。美国Q3经济增速超预期，其中过半为个人 消费支出项所贡献，抵押贷款利率的高位回落对地产的传导仍有时滞，但是能显著影响当期消费。 资产方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动或将加剧。过去两周处于海外市场交易清淡期，但静极思动，新年过后外部扰 动或将加大。目前美元兑日元仍高于155，一旦日本央行干预汇市或美联储降息预期降温，海外市场仍将对国内权益资产造成阶段扰 动。 国内方面， 1）高频数据显示2025年四季度以来有效需求不足正在持续挤压企业盈利空间，导致"以价换量"边际效应锐减。11月当月 工业企业利润增速仍在负区间运行，并且跌幅较上月再度扩大了7.6个百分点。2）人民币升值或暂时接近到位。临近年底结汇需求 集中释放推动人民币汇率明显升值 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income report released on November 24, 2025, written by analyst Liang Weichao and research assistant Wang Yi [1][2] Group 2: 2025 Government Bond Supply Review - In 2025, the deficit - to - GDP ratio was increased to 4%, resulting in a significant increase in government bond supply. As of the end of November, the cumulative government bond issuance was about 24.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 13.23 trillion yuan. It is estimated that the full - year issuance will reach 26.31 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 13.85 trillion yuan [3][11][12] - The issuance of government bonds in 2025 was generally fast. The issuance of national debt from January to November was at a relatively fast pace compared to the same period in the past five years. The issuance of local government bonds was more balanced, and the progress accelerated again in the fourth quarter [12] Group 3: 2026 Government Bond Supply Outlook 3.1 Fiscal Policy and Overall Supply - In 2026, the fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a stable total bond - issuance volume and a focus on quality and efficiency improvement. The deficit - to - GDP ratio is expected to remain at around 4%, the deficit scale is about 5.95 trillion yuan, and the special bond quota is expected to increase to 4.8 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is expected to increase to about 1.8 trillion yuan, and the annual debt - resolution arrangement is expected to remain at 2 trillion yuan. The estimated general deficit scale in 2026 is about 14.55 trillion yuan, corresponding to a general deficit - to - GDP ratio of about 9.8% [4][14] - The total government bond supply in 2026 is about 25 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is 14.42 trillion yuan, remaining at a historically high level but with limited impact [5] 3.2 National Debt - The total national debt issuance in 2026 is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous year due to reduced maturity pressure. The net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 2025. The maturity pressure is expected to be about 7 trillion yuan [4][17][18] - The issuance progress of national debt in 2026 is expected to be more gradual than in 2025. The supply shock in the first quarter will ease year - on - year. The net financing peak may be concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [20] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - The total issuance of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous year. The new local government bond scale is expected to be about 5.72 trillion yuan. The ordinary refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, and the special refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 2.29 trillion yuan [23] - June and August 2026 are the peak repayment months for local government bonds. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, with supply peaks in the first and second quarters [24][27] Group 4: Policy Coordination and Uncertainties - In 2026, the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will be more effective. The central bank will continue to release medium - and long - term liquidity to ease the supply shock, and the fiscal side will pay more attention to structural investment and debt - resolution rhythm [5] - Uncertainties in government bond supply in 2026 mainly include the demand for special treasury bonds and new arrangements after the debt - resolution quota is used up. The special treasury bonds may have new uses, and the debt - resolution pressure in some local areas remains high, especially the problem of enterprise accounts receivable [32]

Group 1 - The liquidity perspective indicates that after the National Day holiday, the funding environment has returned to a loose state, with overnight funding rates dropping below 7DOMO and 7-day funding rates around 7DOMO, alleviating pressure on banks' liabilities [1][9] - The report anticipates that the government bond supply pressure in the fourth quarter will be manageable, with limited government bond issuance currently affecting the funding environment [1][9] - The upcoming tax period is expected to maintain a comfortable funding state before its arrival, with overall pressure from the upcoming reverse repos being manageable due to the five working days for operations [1][9] Group 2 - As of October 19, the issuance progress of local government bonds shows that cumulative replacement bonds issued reached 19,900 billion yuan, achieving 99.50% progress; new general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, achieving 83.97% progress; and new special bonds issued reached 36,973 billion yuan, achieving 84.03% progress [2][10] - The report notes that the issuance of local bonds has sharply decreased post-National Day, leading to a decline in secondary market transactions, with significant drops in net purchases by insurance and participation from funds in the 7-10 year segment [3][11] - The fourth quarter local bond issuance plan is set at 8,516 billion yuan, with expectations of around 10,000 billion yuan in market neutral expectations, although no incremental policy reserves have been observed [2][11] Group 3 - The report highlights opportunities in local bonds from three perspectives: the implied tax rates for 5Y and 10Y bonds remain around 5%, while most 20Y and 30Y bonds are below 4% [3][12] - The report suggests monitoring specific bonds with high implied tax rates, such as the 25 Tianjin bond with an implied tax rate of 12.21%, despite its small issuance size [3][12] - The report also notes that the yield spread between local bonds and government bonds has widened, particularly in the 7Y and 10Y segments, indicating a need to pay attention to risks associated with long-duration bonds [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity gap in October is expected to be weaker than seasonal trends, with limited risks of liquidity tightening due to the central bank's accommodative monetary policy stance [1] Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The overall net financing of government bonds in October is projected to be approximately 600 billion yuan, considering the easing supply pressure from local government bond issuance plans [1] - The estimated liquidity gap for October is around 500 billion yuan, excluding factors such as the maturity of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos [1] - Fiscal spending is expected to be delayed, which may cause disturbances around mid-month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, with the central bank's monetary policy remaining accommodative, suggesting limited risks of liquidity tightening and a likely stable funding environment [1] - Government debt supply pressure is easing, with an estimated overall net financing of approximately 600 billion yuan in October based on local government bond issuance plans and national bond issuance patterns [1] - Excluding factors such as the maturity of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, the liquidity gap for October is projected to be around 500 billion yuan, although fiscal spending timing may cause some disturbances mid-month [1]

Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026, which is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, representing 60% of the 2025 limit, and emphasizes that this will not affect the supply of local debt in 2025 but will facilitate issuance in the first half of 2026 [1][14][16] - The report highlights the implementation of a debt replacement policy that adds 10 trillion yuan in local government debt resources, with 6 trillion yuan available for immediate use and 4 trillion yuan allocated for special new bonds, indicating a proactive approach to managing local government debt [2][16] - The report anticipates a significant reduction in net financing for government bonds in Q4 2025, potentially dropping to 2.51 trillion yuan, which is close to the levels seen in 2021, due to the early use of debt replacement quotas [2][16] Local Government Debt Strategy - As of September 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 1.9723 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 98.62%, while new general bonds and special bonds also showed significant progress [3][19][45] - The report notes that the implied tax rates of newly issued local bonds tend to revert to a range of 3%-6% after listing, with bonds issued at rates close to or above 6% offering a safety margin or excess returns [4][51] - The report indicates that insurance companies have been actively participating in the long-end of the local bond market, with daily net purchases around 9 billion yuan, suggesting a strong interest in long-term bonds [4][20][51] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The report outlines the recent trends in money market rates, noting that rates have fluctuated above and below policy rates, indicating a tightening liquidity environment as the end of the quarter approaches [8][21] - It highlights the pressures on the funding environment due to tax payment deadlines and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, which could impact liquidity in the short term [9][27] - The report mentions that the central bank has been cautious in its liquidity injections, with net daily operations remaining below 100 billion yuan, reflecting a more restrained monetary policy stance [8][21]