Report Overview - The report is the stock index futures morning report of Baocheng Futures on August 22, 2025, covering the financial futures stock index sector [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term is expected to be volatile and strong, and the medium - term is expected to rise. For example, for IH2509, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is volatile and strong, and the overall view is rising; for IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For IH2509, the short - term is "volatile", the medium - term is "rising", the intraday is "volatile and strong", and the overall view is "rising". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.4603 trillion yuan, a 11.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous day. The trading volume in the stock market is still over 2 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' sentiment remains positive. However, due to the large gains of some stocks, there is a need for profit - taking of profitable funds and technical consolidation. Currently, positive expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution policies and consumption - promotion policies promote the moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides and the repair of corporate profits. The capital side is relatively loose, and incremental funds continuously flowing into the stock market drive the repair of the stock index valuation. Overall, it is expected that the stock index will operate in a volatile and strong manner in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The overall view on stock index futures is bullish. For the IH2509 contract, the short - term view is consolidation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, with an overall upward outlook due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is upward. The stock index is expected to be mainly consolidation with a slight upward bias in the short term as the risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the IH2509 contract, short - term: consolidation; medium - term: upward; intraday: consolidation with a slight upward bias; overall view: upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - Yesterday, all stock indexes showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing higher after a volatile day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2809.1 billion yuan, an increase of 536.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume has been above 2 trillion yuan for many days, and the margin trading balance has also risen above 2 trillion yuan, indicating optimistic market sentiment and a continuous increase in investors' risk appetite [5]. - From the policy perspective, positive policy expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies promote a moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides, repair corporate profits, and drive a positive cycle in the "residential consumption - corporate profit - employee salary" chain, increasing the expectation of an improving macro - economic fundamentals [5]. - From the industry perspective, the booming development of AI technology strengthens the logic of "domestic substitution" in technology. The phased easing of tariff issues is beneficial to enhancing the competitiveness of China's industrial chain, promoting scientific and technological innovation and technological progress [5]. - From the capital perspective, patient capital such as social security and insurance funds continues to enter the market, margin trading funds enter the market more quickly, and the non - bank deposit data in July increased significantly year - on - year, indicating a loose capital situation and continuous capital inflow into the stock market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨，其中 IM 与 IC 涨幅明显。沪深京三市全天成交额 21752 亿元， 较上日放量 2700 亿元。股市放量上涨说明股市风险偏好持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures varieties based on their market conditions and influencing factors, including macro - news, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The strategies range from short - term trading to long - term position - holding, and different trading strategies such as bull - spread, option trading, and spread trading are proposed for different situations [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the second round of Sino - US trade talks extended tariff exemptions and the Politburo meeting, the TMT sector led the upward movement, and small and medium - cap stocks rose significantly. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price near 6300 on MO2509 and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and focusing on Sino - US talks and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies can appropriately bet on short - term trading opportunities. Short - term treasury bond futures may fluctuate within a range waiting for a direction [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price fluctuations increase due to macro - news, but there is still a possibility of a pulse rise. It is recommended to build a bull - spread portfolio using gold call options at a low price after a correction. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with upward potential. Use silver put options to build a bull - spread strategy at a relatively low position to earn premium income [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling approach [2]. Black Futures - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. Iron ore prices follow steel prices, and it is recommended to go long on dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. Coking coal prices can be bought on dips, and coke prices can also be bought on dips as there is still an expectation of price increases [2]. Non - ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78000 - 79500 [2]. - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipt volume has increased, and the medium - term oversupply trend remains unchanged, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3400 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuate within a narrow range, and the spot market is weak with a large discount. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 21000 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: For other non - ferrous metals such as zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel, they are expected to have different price trends and trading strategies according to their respective fundamentals [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the progress of US - Russia leadership negotiations, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait for the geopolitical situation to become clearer before going long on dips. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: For products like urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc., different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and price trends [3]. Agricultural Futures - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand changes, export expectations, and inventory levels [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: For products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, etc., trading suggestions are given based on their market conditions [3]. Special and New Energy Futures - **Special Commodities**: For glass, rubber, industrial silicon, etc., trading strategies are proposed according to their market trends and influencing factors [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: For polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc., trading suggestions are provided based on their price movements and market news [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of IH2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is rising, supported by positive policy expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the overall view is rising. The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: rising; intraday: strongly volatile; view reference: rising; core logic: positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index was in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1871 billion yuan, an increase of 41.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. It also aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [5] - The Politburo meeting had few incremental benefits. Since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds may seek to take profits, weakening the short - term upward driving force of the stock index [5] - New policy incremental benefits are expected to wait for the policy guidance of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. Currently, the stock market trading volume is at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite has recovered, so the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. The short - term of IH2509 is oscillating, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising [1][5] - The rebound of the stock index is mainly driven by positive policy expectations, and the market sentiment is generally optimistic. The stock index needs a short - term oscillating consolidation period, and in the short term, it is mainly oscillating strongly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, in the short - term (within a week), it is oscillating; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is rising; intraday, it is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index mainly oscillated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1815.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Some stocks have risen significantly since late June, so some profit - taking funds need to stop profits. The rebound of the stock index is driven by positive policy expectations. The domestic policy has boosted the price and profit repair expectations of related industries, and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has driven the expectation of policy - based support. The current trading volume in the stock market is high, indicating high risk preference of investors [5]

Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated July 24, 2025, with data from Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2][3][4] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509) has a futures price of 5878, a basis rate of 1.38%, and a historical quantile of 63.70% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM509) has a futures price of 6020, a basis rate of 82, and a historical quantile of 40.50% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2510) futures price is 3380, with a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 22.40% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510) futures price is 3438 [1] - Iron ore (I2509) futures price is 843, with a basis rate of - 12.15% and a historical quantile of 27.50% [1] - Coke (J2509) futures price is 1500, with a basis rate of 3.47% [1] - Coking coal (JM2509) futures price is 1053, with a basis rate of - 83 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79790, a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 64.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) futures price is 20850, with a basis rate of 0.29% and a historical quantile of 65.83% [1] - Alumina (AO2509) futures price is 3239, with a basis rate of - 3.45% and a historical quantile of 14.75% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) futures price is 22750, with a basis rate of - 0.98% and a historical quantile of 8.75% [1] - Tin (SN2508) futures price is 268900, with a basis rate of 0.13% and a historical quantile of 58.12% [1] - Nickel (NI5509) futures price is 123450, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 59.16% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2509) futures price is 13070, with a basis rate of 1.32% and a historical quantile of 37.98% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510) has a futures price of 792.9, a basis rate of - 0.59%, and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - Silver (AG2510) futures price is 9475.0, with a basis rate of - 0.18% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2509) has a futures price of 2920, a basis rate of - 5.65%, and a historical quantile of 5.20% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2509) futures price is 8150, with a basis rate of 0.94% and a historical quantile of 6.80% [1] - Palm oil (P2509) futures price is 9040, with a basis rate of 0.51% and a historical quantile of 21.90% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) futures price is 2758.0, with a basis rate of - 4.64% and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - Rapeseed oil (O1509) futures price is 9580, with a basis rate of 1.31% and a historical quantile of 48.00% [1] - Corn (C2509) futures price is 2360, with a basis rate of 1.68% and a historical quantile of 66.20% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) futures price is 2675.0, with a basis rate of 2.43% and a historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - Live pigs (LH2509) futures price is 14590.0, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] - Eggs (JD2509) futures price is 3220, with a basis rate of - 11.47% and a historical quantile of 8.60% [1] - Cotton (CF509) futures price is 15411, with a basis rate of 8.68% and a historical quantile of 84.80% [1] - Sugar (SR509) futures price is 6120, with a basis rate of 4.90% and a historical quantile of 55.00% [1] - Apples (AP510) futures price is 7956.0, with a basis rate of 51.30% [1] - Red dates (C1601) futures price is 8300, with a basis rate of - 2166% and a historical quantile of 7.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX509) has a futures price of 6860.0, a basis rate of 1.03%, and a historical quantile of 48.90% [1] - PTA (TA509) futures price is 4784.0, with a basis rate of - 0.08% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) futures price is 4436.0, with a basis rate of 1.44% and a historical quantile of 83.10% [1] - Polyester fiber (PF509) futures price is 6432.0, with a basis rate of 2.61% and a historical quantile of 79.60% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) futures price is 7397.0, with a basis rate of 0.72% and a historical quantile of 37.70% [1] - Methanol (MA509) futures price is 2411.0, with a basis rate of 0.17% and a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - Urea (UR509) futures price is 1773.0, with a basis rate of 3.21% and a historical quantile of 29.80% [1] - LLDPE (L2509) futures price is 7288.0, with a basis rate of - 0.11% and a historical quantile of 17.90% [1] - PP (PP2509) futures price is 7096.0, with a basis rate of 0.55% and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - PVC (V2509) futures price is 5070.0, with a basis rate of - 1.5% and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Caustic soda (SH209) futures price is 2593.8, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 41.80% [1] - LPG (PG2509) futures price is 4548.0, with a basis rate of 14.65% and a historical quantile of 74.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509) futures price is 3845.0, with a basis rate of 6.98% and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) futures price is 11875.0, with a basis rate of 1.05% and a historical quantile of 41.50% [1] - Glass (FG509) futures price is 1168.0, with a basis rate of - 3.68% and a historical quantile of 51.05% [1] - Soda ash (SA509) futures price is 1338.0, with a basis rate of - 0.75% and a historical quantile of 26.68% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2509) futures price is 14950.0, with a basis rate of - 0.37% and a historical quantile of 91.66% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFE has a futures price of 4119.8, a basis rate of - 0.26%, and a historical quantile of 35.20% [1] - IH2509.CFE futures price is 2802.8, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 67.10% [1] - IC2509.CFE futures price is 6196.8, with a basis rate of - 1.25% and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - IM2509.CFE futures price is 6607.2, with a basis rate of - 1.6% and a historical quantile of 11.80% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2509) futures price is 102.38, with a basis rate of - 0.01% and a historical quantile of 23.40% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2509) futures price is 100.75, with a basis rate of 0.00% and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2509) futures price is 100.89, with a basis rate of 0.02% and a historical quantile of 17.80% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2509) futures price is 119.35, with a basis rate of 0.22% and a historical quantile of 34.60% [1]