美国资产配置周期

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投资黄金如何增强收益:策略周报-20250928
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-28 14:01
Core Insights - The report suggests a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with recommendations to buy silver after significant pullbacks in gold prices, particularly when gold experiences a maximum drawdown of 15% or more [7] - The report emphasizes that the weakening of the US dollar's credit is a key premise for investing in silver, especially during periods of "overheating to stagflation" in the US asset allocation cycle [7][19] - Historical data from 2016 to 2025 indicates that a combined strategy of "gold + silver" has significantly outperformed both London gold and Shanghai gold, achieving higher annualized returns with only a slight increase in maximum drawdown [7][50] Investment Strategy - The report outlines a three-step strategy for trading gold, focusing on macroeconomic perspectives, asset allocation views, and short-term disturbances [10][12] - It highlights that the long-term trend of gold prices is influenced by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and inflation expectations, while stagflation provides a favorable environment for gold price increases [10][19] - The report provides a detailed framework for executing the "gold + silver" enhancement strategy, indicating specific conditions under which to buy or sell silver based on gold's price movements and economic indicators [44][50] Historical Performance - The report includes a review of silver trading opportunities from 2016 to 2025, demonstrating that silver tends to outperform gold during periods of economic recovery or when the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance [23][40] - It presents data showing that during various historical periods, silver has significantly outperformed gold under specific economic conditions, reinforcing the strategic importance of silver in a diversified precious metals portfolio [23][45] Conclusion - The report concludes that the "gold + silver" enhancement strategy is superior to a simple buy-and-hold approach for London gold or Shanghai gold, with higher annualized returns and improved risk-adjusted performance metrics [50][46]