Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in July reflects internal divisions and external pressures, raising concerns about potential impacts on financial markets, government debt, and economic stability [1][4]. Financial Market Risks - Delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could exacerbate risks in the U.S. financial markets, as high rates increase corporate financing costs and compress profit margins, leading to investor concerns about corporate earnings and economic growth [1][2]. - Following the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged, market expectations for a September rate cut dropped below 50%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1]. Government Debt Pressure - The ongoing high-interest environment could increase the U.S. government's debt burden, as rising interest rates lead to higher debt servicing costs, particularly in light of recent fiscal policies that may further inflate the deficit [3]. Economic Stagnation Risks - The Fed's delay in rate cuts may heighten the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with recent employment data indicating a significant slowdown in job growth, which could lead to a potential recession if conditions do not improve [4]. - The labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, well below the expected 110,000, reflecting increased corporate caution [4].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 根据各金融市场距离美联储的远近，依次梳理美国金融市场目前存在的风险： 在岸货币市场：分为①联邦基金市场—— 观察指标为 EFFR 是否走高，现状是目前仍在正常水平。 ②回购市场 —— 观察指标为 SOFR-EFFR 利差转正，现状：近期利差反复转正，且 SOFR 利率已连续 2 天突破利率走廊 上限 IOER ，回购市场流动性紧张。 在岸资本市场：波动性加大，不过尚未达到历次危机时期的波动水平，后续仍需观察。该市场存在 3 大脆弱 性： ①脆弱性 1 ——美股美债同向性转正。 当前美国股债同向性较高，破坏了股债跷跷板原则下的资配基础，可能 带来在美股下跌过程中股债同跌，加剧流动性风险。 ②脆弱性 2 ——基差交易规模走高。 目前美债基差交易规模约 8000 亿美元，其高杠杆属性对资产价格高波动 敏感性高。已观察到 SOFR 互换利差、国债买卖价差走阔，反映国债市场流动性已在恶化，不过尚未达到历史 危机时的水平。 ③脆弱性 3 ——企业债到期高峰。 2025 年企业 ...