川普的这一行为，不过他是急着甩锅的表现，而不是他想要对这份数据负责。在接受媒体采访的时候川 普火速甩锅给拜登时任的统计局长麦肯塔弗，指责其"政治操纵"。 这也是典型的如果解决不了问题，就解决制造问题的人，换一个更够给川普政府编造有利于现任政府执 政的统计局局长。 美国非农就业数据为什么这么重要？因为非农就业数据不仅是衡量劳动力市场状况的晴雨表，也是评估 美国经济整体健康状况，预测未来经济走向，以及美联储制定宏观经济政策的重要依据。 非农就业人数的增加意味着更多人有工作，有更多的收入，收入的增加会转化为消费支出的增长，人们 有能力购买更多的商品和服务，而消费支出是美国经济增长的主要驱动力。非农就业增长也反映了经济 生产能力的提高，更多的人投入工作，意味着整个经济体的商品和服务产出也会增加。 而7月份这份爆冷的成绩单会在全球金融市场造成什么样的影响？对于人民币和人民币资产来说这是好 事还是坏事？ 数据公布之后，美三大指数大跌，单日蒸发超过1万亿美元。特朗普看到这份非农就业报告后更是震 怒，当天下令解雇劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗的职务。 一场数据修正风暴，炸出的不仅是25.8万个"蒸发"的岗位，更是凸显了美国经 ...

其次，美联储过晚降息将加重美国政府的债务压力。 近年来，美国持续的财政赤字和大规模的债务扩张，使得市场对其财政可持续性产生怀疑，甚至引起了 国际信用评级机构对其主权信用评级的下调。若美联储过晚降息，高利率会使得美国政府背负更沉重的 债务利息负担。同时，近期美国通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，或进一步提高美国的债务和赤字。在美 国政府高债务的背景下，财政扩张对经济刺激的有效性有赖于货币政策配合，如果美联储迟迟不降息， 反而会加重美国经济和债务的负担。 最后，美联储过晚降息将加重美国经济"滞胀"风险，甚至触发经济衰退。 日前，美联储公布7月份货币政策决议，连续第五次维持利率不变，符合市场普遍预期。值得注意的 是，本次投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位美联储理事缺席未投票。其中，两位美联储理事米歇尔·鲍 曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒投下反对票（支持立即降息25个基点），这是自1993年以来美联储首次出现两名 理事同时反对利率决议的情况，美联储的内部分歧也罕见公开化。 除内部分歧外，从外部压力看，近期要求美联储尽快降息的呼声不断。那么，如果美联储过晚降息，将 会产生哪些影响？ 首先，美联储过晚降息将加重美国金融市场风险。 持续 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dual influence of easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for interest rate cuts on gold prices [3][4][11] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have temporarily eased, leading to a significant reduction in gold's safe-haven demand, particularly after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [3][11] - The market is currently experiencing a cautious outlook on the economy, reflected in the slight decline of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to around 4.3% [1][4] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 74.9%, driven by weak U.S. economic data, including a contraction in Q1 GDP [4][10] - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a three-year low, theoretically supporting gold prices; however, concerns over "stagflation" are diminishing this positive effect [5][11] - The upcoming release of the U.S. core PCE price index is expected to be a key catalyst for breaking the current price range of gold, with a higher-than-expected reading potentially reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates [10][11] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates a fluctuating pattern for gold prices, oscillating between $3,300 and $3,340, with market sentiment remaining cautious [7][11] - The market is closely monitoring the core PCE data, initial jobless claims, and Q1 GDP final data, as these indicators could influence gold's safe-haven demand and price movements [10][11]

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of June 19, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, with the latest price at 106.03 yuan [1] - Over the past three months, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.01% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 18.681 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 17.6 million shares, also a new high in three months [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past nine days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 3.125 billion yuan in net inflows [1] - Leveraged funds have been actively buying into the Company Bond ETF, with a maximum single-day net purchase of 8.4424 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of June 19, 2025, the National Bond ETF (511020) rose by 0.03%, achieving five consecutive increases, with the latest price at 117.64 yuan [3] - The National Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.80% over the past three months [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF is 1.433 billion yuan [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of June 19, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) is in a state of indecision, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan [5] - Over the past year, the National Development Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.00% [5] - The latest scale of the National Development Bond ETF is 1.052 billion yuan [5] Group 4: FOMC Economic Forecast - The FOMC has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.7% to 1.4% and raised the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% [6] - The PCE inflation forecast has been increased from 2.7% to 3.0%, and the core PCE from 2.8% to 3.1% [6] - Despite the changes in economic forecasts, the FOMC's median policy rate expectations for Q4 2025 remain unchanged [6] Group 5: FOMC Press Conference Insights - Powell expressed confidence in the economy and patience regarding inflation, stating that maintaining the current policy is the best strategy [7] - The market slightly adjusted its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 following the press conference, with a more hawkish signal leading to an increase in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [7] - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership may influence future rate cut expectations [7] Group 6: Bond ETF Product Overview - The three main members of the Bond ETF family managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and National Bond ETF (511020) [8] - These products encompass government bonds, policy bank bonds, and credit bonds, covering various durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of gold prices around the $3,300 per ounce mark, driven by U.S. tariff policies and economic conditions, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market sentiments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On June 2, gold prices broke through the $3,300 resistance level, with COMEX gold futures reaching a high of $3,384 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 2%, the largest single-day gain in nearly three weeks [1]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to President Trump's announcement of increasing tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, which has led to a rebound in gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. - Gold has experienced significant price fluctuations at the $3,300 level this year, previously hitting a historical high of $3,509 in April before dropping to $3,245 due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The $3,300 level has been a focal point for market participants, with recent price movements indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [2]. - The volatility in gold prices is exacerbated by the fluctuating tariff policies of the Trump administration and the market's expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Economic Indicators - Recent data from the CFTC shows an increase in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures by 10,203 contracts, bringing the total to 174,184 contracts, which represents 39.8% of total positions [3]. - The total open interest decreased by 10,462 contracts or 2.34%, with 294 total traders in the market [3]. - Economic indicators reveal challenges for the U.S. economy, including a rise in initial jobless claims and a significant decline in corporate profits, which fell by $118.1 billion in Q1 2025, the largest drop since Q4 2020 [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still in play, with expectations of three rate cuts within the year, which could benefit gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility of gold prices around the $3300 per ounce mark, driven by fluctuating tariff policies and economic conditions [1][2] - Gold prices recently surged, with a peak of $3384 per ounce, marking a significant daily increase of over 2%, attributed to President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on steel imports [1][2] - The gold market has experienced a "roller coaster" effect this year, with prices previously reaching a historical high of $3509 per ounce before dropping to $3245 due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that $3300 is a critical battleground for bulls and bears, with the market reacting to the U.S. government's inconsistent tariff policies and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Recent data from the CFTC shows an increase in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures, indicating a return of bullish sentiment, with net long positions rising by 10,203 contracts to 174,184 contracts [3] - The U.S. economy faces significant challenges, as evidenced by rising unemployment claims and a notable decline in corporate profits, which fell by $118.1 billion in Q1 2025, the largest drop since Q4 2020 [3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is ongoing, with expectations for three rate cuts within the year, which could benefit gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced a V-shaped rebound, currently at 99.03, slightly up by 0.05% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 98.5-99.2 [1] - Federal Reserve officials are signaling a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic stating that the potential for rate cuts this year may be limited to 25 basis points, contrasting sharply with market expectations of a 50 basis point cut [3] - Concerns about stagflation in the US economy are growing, and if the upcoming non-farm payroll data shows signs of a deteriorating job market, the dollar's safe-haven appeal may be impacted [3] Group 2 - The upcoming durable goods orders data for April is a key focus, with expectations of a significant decline to -7.9%, down from a previous growth of 9.2%, primarily due to a sharp drop in Boeing orders [4] - If the actual durable goods orders data is significantly weaker than expected, it may heighten concerns about the weakness in the US manufacturing sector, further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [4] - Conversely, a rebound in the durable goods orders data could alleviate market worries regarding the negative impacts of tariffs, providing temporary support for the dollar [4]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the Nasdaq rising by 0.28%, and the S&P 500 declining by 0.04% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Tesla up nearly 2%, Google rising over 1%, and other tech giants like Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta showing less than 1% gains [1] - Cryptocurrency and computer hardware sectors performed well, with Quantum rising over 11% and Coinbase up 5% [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic activity showed signs of recovery in May, with Markit manufacturing and services PMI exceeding expectations, although inflationary pressures resurfaced [1] - Following the economic data release, the stock market initially rebounded, but the S&P and Dow later turned negative despite a strong performance from large tech stocks [1] Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's tax reform bill, which is expected to significantly reduce taxes and increase federal debt, potentially adding approximately $2.7 trillion to the budget deficit over ten years [2] - The bill faces opposition from Democrats and some Republicans, who argue it disproportionately benefits the wealthiest 1% at the expense of healthcare for millions [2] Bond Market Dynamics - Concerns over the tax reform's impact on fiscal health led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with the 30-year bond yield reaching 5.149%, the highest since October 2023 [3] - The steepening of the yield curve between 5-30 year bonds expanded to 100 basis points, indicating investor anxiety about long-term fiscal sustainability [3] Emerging Market Outlook - Amidst turmoil in the U.S. bond market, there is a renewed focus on emerging markets, with many U.S. investors having only a 3%-5% allocation to these markets compared to 10.5% in the MSCI global index [4] - Analysts suggest that global investors are seeking diversification and long-term returns outside of U.S. equities, with emerging markets becoming a focal point [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warned of significant risks to the U.S. economy, including geopolitical tensions and fiscal deficits, suggesting a potential for stagflation [4] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Fed would not purchase bonds in primary auctions and hinted at possible rate cuts in late 2025 if tariff impacts stabilize [4][5]

Group 1 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, indicated that the possibility of the U.S. economy entering a stagflation scenario cannot be ruled out [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed continued to pause rate cuts for the third time, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%. The difficulty of the Fed's timing rate cuts has increased. The Fed's "wait-and-see" stance continues, and it reaffirms that there is no need to rush into action. If the economic downward pressure increases significantly and the risk of inflation rebound is realized simultaneously, the current expectation of three rate cuts within the year may be revised [1][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - The Fed continued to pause rate cuts for the third time, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate remained at 4.4% and 4.5% respectively. After the rate decision was announced, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose from 4.26% to 4.29%, the three major U.S. stock indexes first declined and then rose, and the U.S. dollar index rose. After the press conference began, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 4.28%, with little overall change, the U.S. stocks fluctuated in the red, the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen, COMEX gold fell, and crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range [1][3]. 3.2 Interest Rate Statement - The main adjustments in the interest rate statement revolve around the description of the economic outlook, including three points: adding "although the fluctuations in net exports have affected the relevant data" at the beginning, but emphasizing the judgment that "U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily"; pointing out that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased"; and clearly stating that the risks of high unemployment and high inflation have both risen [1][5]. 3.3 Economic Situation - The economic outlook faces high uncertainty, but there is no conclusive evidence at the data level. Powell said at the press conference that the economy remains resilient, but the outlook is still highly uncertain. If high tariffs are maintained, the negative impact on the economy will gradually emerge, which is not yet reflected in the data. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. GDP's quarter-on-quarter annualized rate declined by 0.3%, with net exports and government consumption and investment dragging down GDP by 4.83 and 0.25 percentage points respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the University of Michigan consumer expectation index has dropped sharply, reaching a low of 47.30 as of March 2025, reflecting concerns about trade policies [1][8]. 3.4 Labor Market - The overall state of the employment market is stable, but attention should be paid to the risk of rising unemployment. In April, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was 177,000. The service industry is still the main contributor to the employment market, but the number of new jobs in industries such as retail, leisure, and hospitality that are more sensitive to economic elasticity has slowed down significantly compared to March, and the number of new jobs in the federal government has declined for the third consecutive month. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.0%-4.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate of hourly wages slowed down [16]. 3.5 Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation remains uncertain, and inflation expectation indicators continue to rise. Powell said at the press conference that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term or long-term, and the Fed's responsibility is to maintain the stability of long-term inflation expectations. In March, the U.S. CPI data was lower than expected across the board. Considering that the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy has not yet been reflected in the March data, its guidance for interest rate decisions is relatively limited. Recently, the University of Michigan inflation expectation index has continued to rise, increasing the difficulty of decision-making in a stagflation environment [17].