Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached historical highs, with spot prices exceeding $3,500 and futures surpassing $3,600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 87%, and for October, it stands at 49%, indicating a strong market expectation for monetary easing [1] - A revision of non-farm employment data is expected, potentially lowering total job growth by approximately 900,000 positions from March 2024 to March 2025, which will significantly reduce the average monthly job additions [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to rise to around 5%, further supporting the case for rate cuts despite any inflationary pressures [1] - Political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly through the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook by Trump, is undermining confidence in the Fed's independence, which could lead to accelerated rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices has led to a shift in global central bank reserves, with gold now surpassing U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2] - If central bank gold reserves reach half of the historical high of 75%, gold prices could potentially exceed $4,500 [2]