美国总统特朗普再次采取史无前例的行动，因涉嫌抵押贷款违规而解雇了首位担任美联储理事的非裔女 性丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）。随后，库克回应称，特朗普无权将她从美联储解雇，她也不会辞职。 IG市场分析师托尼·西卡莫尔（Tony Sycamore） "特朗普在不断向美联储主席鲍威尔施压并导致其上周退让之后，又解除了库克的职务，这重新点燃了 对美联储独立性的质疑，进一步削弱了其保持不受政治影响、独立制定货币政策的能力。" 华侨银行外汇策略师Christopher Wong "这一举动再次显示出市场对美联储独立性的担忧，令美元承压，并对FOMC未来组成产生影响，可能 会出现更多倾向鸽派的成员。这进一步强化了降息预期和美元走软的前景。" "特朗普总统声称'有理由'解雇我，但无任何法律依据，他没有权力这样做。我不会辞职。 我将继续履行自2022年以来一直在做的帮助美国经济的职责。" 如果特朗普最终成功解雇库克，他将再次获得提名美联储理事的机会。市场开始押注库克的继任者将是 鸽派人物，推动进一步降息。以下是华尔街分析师对此事件的看法。 凯投宏观亚太区市场主管托马斯·马修斯（THOMAS MATHEWS） "市场反应相对 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Expectations - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% in July, with unusual dissent among members, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed a rate cut [1] - There is increasing concern within the Fed regarding economic slowdown, with some officials noting inflation nearing target levels and favoring aggressive easing policies [1] - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut before the September meeting, with an anticipated reduction of about 58 basis points by year-end [1] Group 2: Eurozone Policy and Dollar Dynamics - The European Central Bank has cut the benchmark interest rate eight times since June 2024, with the deposit rate now at 2.0%, and maintained rates in July amid optimistic views on the Eurozone economy [2] - Market expectations for further ECB rate cuts have cooled, with the likelihood of maintaining current rates if economic growth or inflation does not significantly decline [2] - The divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and ECB has placed relative pressure on the dollar while supporting the euro, potentially making euro-denominated assets more attractive [2] Group 3: Gold Performance and Real Yields - Gold prices surged in 2025 due to global uncertainties and anticipated policy changes, reaching historical highs of around $3,500 per ounce in April [3] - Recent expectations of Fed rate cuts have kept gold prices in the $3,300 - $3,400 range, with the strong performance linked to declining real yields as inflation slows [3] - The attractiveness of gold increases when real rates turn negative, with current 10-year U.S. Treasury yields around 4.2% and core inflation near 3%, leading to a slight positive real yield [4] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Reserves - In the first half of 2025, central banks increased gold reserves by over 410 tons, providing structural support for gold prices [4] - Potential hawkish signals from the Fed could lead to a decline in gold prices to around $3,260 - $3,270 per ounce, while a dovish stance could push prices back up towards $3,440 - $3,450 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that S&P 500 companies significantly exceeded market expectations in Q2 earnings, with an overall EPS growth of 11% year-over-year, surpassing the prior 4% market forecast [1][2] - The report highlights that 60% of the companies that have reported earnings exceeded expectations by more than one standard deviation, marking one of the highest frequencies of earnings surprises on record [1][3] - Companies maintained profit margins despite tariff pressures through strategies such as supplier negotiations, supply chain adjustments, cost-cutting measures, and passing on price increases to consumers [2][3] Group 2 - The softening of the US dollar has provided additional momentum for sales growth among S&P 500 companies, contributing to accelerated revenue growth in Q2 [4][5] - Large multinational companies have benefited significantly from currency fluctuations, while smaller companies face greater risks in sales growth due to their inability to fully capitalize on the advantages of a weaker dollar [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, driven by hopes of interest rate cuts in the US and positive economic data from China [1][3] - As of August 8, LME three-month copper increased by $77.5, or 0.8%, closing at $9,762.0 per ton, marking a cumulative increase of 1.4% for the week [1][2] - The US dollar weakened following President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, which bolstered expectations for rate cuts and made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for foreign buyers [3] Group 2 - China's trade data showed a total import and export value of 3.91 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, the highest growth rate this year [3] - For the first seven months of the year, China's total trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - COMEX September copper contracts rose by 1.99% to $4.4860 per pound, or $9,890 per ton, resulting in a premium of approximately $128 per ton over LME copper [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.48% to $9,685 per ton due to supply concerns following an accident at Codelco's mine in Chile, despite rising copper inventories limiting price gains [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September copper contract fell by 0.25% to 78,280 yuan per ton, with Codelco required to submit four reports regarding the El Teniente mine collapse before resuming underground operations [2] - El Teniente mine produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, and traders are now re-exporting a portion of record shipments to the U.S. to capitalize on higher prices, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile [3] Group 2 - LME registered copper inventories increased by 2,275 tons (1.48%) to 156,125 tons, rising over 70% since the end of June [3] - Weak U.S. employment data has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, resulting in a weaker dollar, making dollar-denominated metals like copper cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Other LME metals also saw price increases, with aluminum up 0.6% to $2,578 per ton, nickel up 0.64% to $15,120 per ton, lead up 1.27% to $1,998.5 per ton, tin up 0.69% to $33,485 per ton, and zinc up 0.62% to $2,775 per ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen to a one-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, with investors closely monitoring trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by favorable technical factors and a general weakness in the dollar [1] - The potential for the U.S. and its trade partners to fail to reach an agreement may create uncertainty, prompting market participants to engage in hedging activities [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, highlights that the combination of a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields enhances the attractiveness of gold as an investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has weakened, allowing emerging market currencies to recover some of their losses, with the Mexican peso reaching its highest point against the dollar during the trading session [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso has appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a positive movement for the currency [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs has revised its prediction for the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut from December to September, reflecting a new assessment of the current economic conditions and future inflation trends [1] - The impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation appears to be smaller than previously expected, with other factors contributing more significantly to the decline in inflation [1] - Asian economies are facing major risks due to current U.S. tariff policies and trade tensions, with Vietnam being particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on U.S. market demand [2] Group 2: Currency Trends - Lombard Odier strategists expect the U.S. dollar to continue weakening over the next 12 months, with a fair value estimate for EUR/USD around 1.15, suggesting caution in a wider range of 1.15-1.20 due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The Japanese yen has appreciated by 9% over the past six months, driven by global trade tensions and calls for U.S. interest rate cuts, with July historically being a strong month for the yen [3] Group 3: Real Estate and Inflation - Germany is facing a housing shortage, with recent real estate downturns hindering construction activities and causing rent increases, prompting the government to expand rent control measures [4] - In 2023, German property prices fell over 10%, but a 3.8% increase projected for Q1 2025 indicates a significant reversal, particularly in major cities like Berlin, Munich, and Frankfurt [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are rising due to optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts later this year, alongside a weakening US dollar [1][2] - Gold prices increased by 1.17%, reaching $3341.30 per ounce, with a trading range between $3271.90 and $3342.21 per ounce on July 1 [1] - Market participants are anticipating at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, influenced by upcoming employment reports that may catalyze a decline in US Treasury yields, which typically benefits gold [2] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that while gold prices are generally trending upwards, the short-term outlook has shifted to neutral to slightly bearish, with a critical support level at $3200 [3] - A break below the 50-day moving average at $3322 could open up further downside potential for gold prices [3] - The recent focus remains on whether economic data will indicate a slowdown in economic activity, which could enable the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2]

Group 1 - The international gold price rebounded on June 30, closing above $3,300 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar [1] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by $28.9 to $3,315 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - Despite a rise in US stock indices, the US dollar index fell by 0.54% to 96.875, providing additional upward momentum for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a one-month low of $3,250.5 during early electronic trading, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The overall performance of gold in June showed a slight increase of 0.06% compared to the end of May, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed [2] - Analysts suggest that central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and loose monetary policies will continue to support the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September rose by 16.5 cents to $36.330 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.46% [3]