2025.12. 16 本文字数：1890，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 近期华尔街关注度最高的热门话题于周一出现突发转折。前美联储理事沃什（Kevin Walsh）取代哈 塞特（Kevin Hassett），成为下任美联储主席提名的领跑者。对于美国总统特朗普而言，随着各地 方联储主席连任获得通过，其对美联储施加影响力的尝试正面临严峻挑战。 黑马胜出？ 预测市场平台Kalshi数据显示，前美联储理事沃什的提名概率目前升至47%，而在周日这一数字为 39%，12月3日更是仅为11%。白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特的提名概率则下滑至41%，较周日的 51%、12月3日的81%大幅回落。 报道指出，哈塞特的候选资格正遭到特朗普亲信的反对，这一消息似乎是沃什支持率反超的关键原 因。反对声浪源于外界担忧哈塞特与特朗普的关系过于密切。 美国总统特朗普上周三在白宫会见沃什，明确询问对方是否会支持降息，能否获得自己的信任。"我 并非要求他完全按我们的话行事，但……我具备独到的见解，他应当予以听取。"特朗普指出，他期 望一年内利率能降至1%，甚至可能更低。 这则报道令华尔街颇感意外。此前市场几乎一边倒地看好哈塞 ...

黑马胜出？ 预测市场平台Kalshi数据显示，前美联储理事沃什的提名概率目前升至47%，而在周日这一数字为 39%，12月3日更是仅为11%。白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特的提名概率则下滑至41%，较周日的 51%、12月3日的81%大幅回落。 近期华尔街关注度最高的热门话题于周一出现突发转折。前美联储理事沃什（Kevin Walsh）取代哈塞 特（Kevin Hassett），成为下任美联储主席提名的领跑者。对于美国总统特朗普而言，随着各地方联储 主席连任获得通过，其对美联储施加影响力的尝试正面临严峻挑战。 报道指出，哈塞特的候选资格正遭到特朗普亲信的反对，这一消息似乎是沃什支持率反超的关键原因。 反对声浪源于外界担忧哈塞特与特朗普的关系过于密切。 美国总统特朗普上周三在白宫会见沃什，明确询问对方是否会支持降息，能否获得自己的信任。"我并 非要求他完全按我们的话行事，但……我具备独到的见解，他应当予以听取。"特朗普指出，他期望一 年内利率能降至1%，甚至可能更低。 这则报道令华尔街颇感意外。此前市场几乎一边倒地看好哈塞特，正是这一消息让沃什的提名概率从谷 底攀升。 但事实上，华尔街金融圈内早有传言称，哈塞特并 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2] - The decision was passed with an 11-1 vote, with the only dissenting vote from Stephen Moore, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates has raised questions about whether it was influenced by political pressure from former President Trump, who has been vocal about his desire for lower rates [2][9] Economic Data - The Fed's economic projections indicate that the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate is expected to reach 2.6% next year, up from a previous forecast of 2.4%, with the 2% target not expected to be met until 2028 [3] - Employment data shows a downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, indicating a weaker job market than previously anticipated [5] - The current unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, the highest since 2021, with the unemployment rate for recent graduates exceeding the overall rate, a rare occurrence in U.S. history [5] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. stock market showed mixed reactions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.1% and 0.33% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.57% [7] - Analysts suggest that the rate cut may lead to a gradual decrease in mortgage, auto, and credit card interest rates, but the pace of future cuts will depend on the economic performance [7][8] - Historical context shows that previous Fed rate cut cycles have typically involved cuts of 100 basis points, indicating that the current cycle may be prolonged [8] Political Implications - The Fed's independence has been called into question, with some media outlets suggesting that the current rate cut aligns with Trump's economic policies aimed at stimulating the economy [9] - The interplay between Trump's tariffs and the Fed's rate cuts presents a contradiction, as the tariffs have increased household expenses while rate cuts could potentially lead to inflationary pressures [9] - Despite the short-term political gains for Trump, the long-term implications of the Fed's actions may lead to political costs as the negative impacts of his policies on the economy become more apparent [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached historical highs, with spot prices exceeding $3,500 and futures surpassing $3,600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 87%, and for October, it stands at 49%, indicating a strong market expectation for monetary easing [1] - A revision of non-farm employment data is expected, potentially lowering total job growth by approximately 900,000 positions from March 2024 to March 2025, which will significantly reduce the average monthly job additions [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to rise to around 5%, further supporting the case for rate cuts despite any inflationary pressures [1] - Political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly through the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook by Trump, is undermining confidence in the Fed's independence, which could lead to accelerated rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices has led to a shift in global central bank reserves, with gold now surpassing U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2] - If central bank gold reserves reach half of the historical high of 75%, gold prices could potentially exceed $4,500 [2]