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五矿期货贵金属日报-20250812
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was disproven after Trump stated that no tariffs would be imposed on gold, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices. However, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy remains the main driver for the precious metal market. With Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and significantly lower - than - expected employment data, there is certainty that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metal strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Precious Metal Price Movements - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.87% to 777.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 0.93% to 9158.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold dropped 0.24% to 3396.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver dropped 0.43% to 37.63 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.27%, and the US dollar index was at 98.53 [2]. - On August 11, 2025, compared with August 8, 2025, COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.87% to 3393.70 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume dropped 30.58% to 21.69 million lots. COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 2.25% to 37.65 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume dropped 7.33% to 59.13 million lots [6]. 3.2 Impact of Tariff Expectations - Last week, the market's expectation of a 1 - kilogram gold bar tariff in the US drove the premium of COMEX Gold over London Gold to a high of 44.81 dollars/ounce on August 7. After Trump's statement, the premium of COMEX Gold dropped significantly, and as of this morning, the price difference between COMEX Gold and London Gold fell to 9.1 dollars/ounce [3]. 3.3 Other Market Data - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.48% to 964.22 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 0.45% to 15058.60 tons [4]. - The VIX index rose 7.26% to 16.25, while major US stock indexes such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined. The London FTSE 100 and Tokyo Nikkei 225 indexes rose [4]. 3.4 Price Spread Analysis - On August 11, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 31.1035 yuan/gram (3.57 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 3.94 yuan/gram (17.04 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 486.34 yuan/kilogram (2.10 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread for silver was 476.76 yuan/kilogram (2.06 dollars/ounce) [55].