每经AI快讯，周五纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌9.09个基点，报4.0475%，本周累计下跌7.17个 基点。 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 金油比价明显分化怎么解释？ 金油比价，当下较大分化怎么解释？ 当前金油比价是历史次高，仅次于 2020 年疫情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们 认为定价因素差异在于原油是基本面定价，黄金是宏观定价。 油价跟随基本面，略微领先 US10Y 过去十年，油价紧跟基本面（OECD 原油库存）：当下 OECD 原油库存处于 中等偏低水平，但是油价率先下跌，因为市场预期 2026 年原油基本面持续 宽松会加剧累库。 过去十年，油价和 US10Y 呈现略微领先的正向关系：原油累库预期→油价 下跌预期→通胀压力缓解预期→降息预期。 过去十年，金价与美国 10 年期国债收益率几乎呈负相关：黄金作为无息资 产，其机会成本和实际利率水平相关，当实际利率下降时，黄金的吸引力提 升，反之则下降。美国从 2025 年 9 月开始降息 25 个基点，市场普遍预期 美国进入降息周期，债券市场对降息预期的定价最为敏感，市场主流预期美 国 10 年期国债收益率下降。 本轮金价和新兴国家央行需求相关：自俄乌战争发生之后，新兴市场央行加 大购买黄金的力度，相较于发达市场央行持有的黄金比例较低，央行需求的 ...

在一段时间里为黄金和白银价格提供有力支撑的地缘政治紧张态势，如今已暂时有所缓和。以色列与哈 马斯成功达成协议，计划释放所有在加沙被扣押的人质，这一举措被视为朝着结束双方持续两年冲突迈 出的关键一步。 该协议是在多方共同努力下达成的，美国、埃及、卡塔尔以及土耳其积极从中斡旋，地点设在埃及的沙 姆沙伊赫，经过多轮间接谈判后最终敲定。根据协议条款，以色列方面将释放一批巴勒斯坦囚犯，同时 允许向加沙地区输送更多的人道援助物资，并逐步将军队撤回到加沙边境的缓冲区域。这一消息传出 后，市场的避险情绪明显减弱，给金银价格带来了短期的下行压力。 从外部宏观市场环境来看，也不利于贵金属价格走势。美元指数强势攀升，一举涨至九周以来的最高 点；原油价格则出现下滑，跌至每桶62美元附近；与此同时，美国10年期国债收益率稳定保持在4.13% 的水平。这些因素综合作用，进一步加剧了金银价格面临的压力。在当前复杂的市场形势下，投资者需 要密切关注各方动态以及宏观经济数据的变化，以便及时调整投资策略，应对可能出现的市场波动。毕 竟，贵金属市场受多种因素影响，未来走势仍存在较大不确定性。 【交易思路】 摘要周四，由于美元走高，且以色列和哈马斯 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月1日，美国10年期国债收益率在ADP数据公布后，下跌超过3个基点，至4.117%。 ...

人民财讯9月18日电，美国10年期国债收益率回落至4%以下。消息面上，美联储宣布降息25个基点。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月4日，美国10年期国债收益率跌至4.18%，为5月1日以来的最低水平。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped approximately 5 basis points to below 4.26%, with an overall decline of 7.4 basis points for the day [1] - Gold prices increased by 0.3%, reaching a new daily high and approaching $3,350 [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.3%, the Dow Jones gained 688 points with an increase exceeding 1.5%, and the Nasdaq climbed 265 points, up over 1.1% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a shift in risk balance may necessitate adjustments to policy [1]

Economic Development - The development of the asset management industry is crucial for reducing the proportion of indirect financing, as it transforms debt into equity through mechanisms like trusts and asset management [3][4] - The current financial system in China primarily supports indirect financing, with a significant reliance on bank loans, while the need for equity capital remains unmet [4][5] - The asset management sector has seen growth but requires further reform, particularly in legal frameworks, to enhance its role in supporting the real economy [6][8] Capital Market and Financing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the capital market's foundational systems and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing [4] - As of June 2023, the total stock of RMB loans reached 228.86 trillion, with an increase of 16.43 trillion from December 2022, while A-share equity financing in the first half of 2023 was 587.1 billion, a decrease of 353 billion from the second half of 2022 [4] - Despite efforts to promote direct financing, indirect financing remains dominant in social financing, indicating a need for more effective measures to enhance equity financing [4][5] Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.0% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, indicating potential recessionary conditions [8][9] - Current global inflation poses challenges, with the need for careful monetary policy to avoid exacerbating economic downturns [8][9] - The trend of de-globalization is emerging, impacting global supply chains and economic efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][10] Financial System and Risk Management - The financial system's primary role is to serve the real economy, with a focus on managing risks effectively [12] - The recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year raises concerns about currency stability and its impact on asset prices [12][13] - Recommendations suggest prioritizing foreign exchange reserves over currency stabilization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserves as a more critical factor [13]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.32%, marking the highest level since August [1] Group 2 - The increase in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment and market conditions [1] - This rise in yield could have implications for various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates [1] - The current yield level reflects broader economic trends and expectations regarding inflation and monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the preference for duration in the market has increased, particularly for fixed-rate preferred stocks, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury market dynamics [2][4]. - The report highlights that the demand for $25 fixed-rate preferred stocks has reached a nine-month high, surpassing the demand for $1,000 floating-rate preferred stocks, with the former rising by 2.9% in the second half of the year compared to a 0.9% increase for the latter [4][8]. - The report indicates that despite the rising demand and yields, $25 preferred stocks remain cheaper than $1,000 preferred stocks, with a spread of approximately 63 basis points, which is in the 84th percentile since 2012 [8]. Group 2 - For cautious investors, the report suggests focusing on older $1,000 preferred stocks, which have lower yields but shorter durations and lower interest rate sensitivity, providing a yield premium of over 100 basis points compared to investment-grade bonds [14]. - The report notes that the average back-end spread for newly issued preferred stocks in 2025 is only 275 basis points, the narrowest on record, indicating a potential increase in extension risk [14][17].