金价，仍在狂飙！ 12月12日，现货黄金价格持续向上，突破4350美元/盎司，距离历史新高仅一步之遥。虽然随后短线下挫，但仍引发市场对金价的再次侧目。 与此同时，品牌金饰价格也节节攀升。12月13日，老庙黄金的金饰价格涨至1352元/克，周生生涨至1351元/克，均突破1350元/克的高位。周大福金饰价格 为1348元/克，六福珠宝为1346元/克。 监制：韩霁审核：彭金美 网友纷纷表示，"天呐现在已经这么高了吗""真的很夸张"。 编辑：张萌 校对：张尤佳（见习） 世界黄金协会展望称，2026年金价前景仍将受到持续的地缘经济不确定性影响。从今年走势看，2026年金价很可能继续带来"惊喜"。如果经济增长放缓， 利率进一步下降，黄金可能会温和上涨。在以全球风险上升为特征的更为严重的经济低迷时期，黄金可能会表现强劲。 高盛分析师近期表示，对2026年底金价每盎司4900美元的预测存在显著上行空间。高盛预计，2025年央行购金量平均为80吨，2026年为70吨，并称新兴市 场央行可能会继续将储备从美元分散到黄金。 来源：中国基金报 近期黄金延续上行动能，核心驱动力源于美联储最新决议的鹰派程度不及市场事前担忧，叠加市场 ...

美联储决议后涨势转瞬即逝，甲骨文财报成市场"降温剂" 美联储决议：分歧加剧，政治化隐忧浮现 昨日，市场对美联储决议的即时反应显得有些出人意料。正如普遍预期，美联储宣布降息25个基点，利率 点阵图显示，委员们对明年仅降息一次的中位数预期与上次一致，未发生变化。 但随着FOMC内部观点分歧（及政治分歧）日益加剧，这一中位数预期的参考价值正不断下降。昨日的投 票已出现3张反对票：2名委员主张维持利率不变，而由特朗普亲自任命、以"持续降息"为使命的斯蒂芬·米 兰（StephanMiran）则主张降息50个基点。除正式投票外，更多地区联储官员对"在通胀接近3%且上行风 险隐现的背景下降息"表达了抵触情绪。总体而言，19名美联储委员中，有6人不认可本次25个基点的降息 决议，其中多数人倾向于维持利率不变，至少等待最新CPI数据出炉后再作决策。米兰是唯一主张大幅降 息的委员——这一结果并不意外。 美元汇率跌破关键斐波那契水平——即此前跌势反弹行情的38.2%回撤位，目前已重回中期熊市整理区 间。黄金与白银则同步上涨，其中白银受美元走弱及收益率下降（降低无息资产持有成本）推动，创下历 史新高。 2026年政策展望：政治干预加 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 软银集团股价跌幅一度达 8.4%，创11月25日以来最大跌幅。亚洲分析师解读美联储决议："没那么鹰 派"的降息，对亚洲市场很完美。 ...

在美联储决议公布前，市场大概率维持区间震荡。应该轻仓区间操作，做好突破的准备工作，严格风控。 阻力：4218-4230 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 影响因素： 昨日被视为下任美联储主席潜在人选的哈塞特表示，提前制定长期利率计划是"不负责任"的。这番言论被市场解读为对未来激进降息路径的"降温"，导致市 场对2026年的降息预期大大回落，导致昨晚金价急跌4176美元附近的主要原因之一。 另外俄罗斯宣布将从2026年起禁止金条出口，这从长期供应层面为金价提供了一定的心理支撑。 全球央行持续购金（如中国已连续13个月增持）；长期来看，去美元化、地缘不确定性等因素构成稳固基础。 个人思路： 如果金价强势突破而且站稳4230上方，很大可能将开启新一轮上涨，可顺势轻仓追多。 如果金价有效跌破4170，短期调整可能加深，需要警惕市场下探4160-4150的风险。 支撑：4170；强支撑在4155-4163区域 日内区间策略： 如果金价反弹4210-4220出现上涨乏力迹象，可轻仓空，止损4230，目标看4190-4180。 如果金价回落4170-4176美元区域企稳，可轻仓多， ...

上交易日周一(12月8日)：国际黄金震荡收跌，维持偏弱调整，受到上周五的回撤压力，以及市场对于 美联储本周或鹰派降息而推动美元指数止跌走强的打压；但整体仍维持在中轨支撑上方，以及近期的回 升趋势中，暗示后市仍有再度走强攀升的预期，如回撤触及中轨及30日均线等支撑，也仍是继续看涨入 场的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4196.40美元/盎司，日内先行震荡回升，于亚盘尾录得日内高点4218.74美 元，之后遇阻震荡回撤，延续到美盘时段，空头力量加大，连续走低录得日内低点4176.27美元，最终 有所止跌回升盘整，收于4190.49美元，日振幅42.47美元，收跌5.91美元，跌幅0.14%。 展望今日周二(12月9日)：国际黄金开盘先行止跌运行，受到买盘推动，以及美元指数早盘的走弱支 撑，但走势仍维持在近日的震荡区间内，在美联储决议落地之前，难以打破此格局，故此目前依然还是 维持短线的震荡波动为主，并进行短线多空操作。 日内将可留意美国11月NFIB小型企业信心指数及美国10月JOLTs职位空缺(万人)等数据，个人预期将偏 向利好金价。再加上日内短周期走势偏止跌看涨，故此，白盘走势先低多看涨为主。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with the market showing cautious sentiment reflected in the recent fluctuations of the US dollar index [1] - The US dollar index closed at 98.98 on December 5, experiencing a slight decline of 0.07% on that day and a cumulative drop of 0.5% over the past week, marking the second consecutive week of decline [1] - There is significant divergence in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with a prevailing outlook favoring continued easing; the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during the December 9-10 meeting is at 87.2% according to the CME FedWatch tool [1] Group 2 - Institutions generally believe the US dollar is overvalued, with Goldman Sachs estimating it to be overvalued by approximately 20%, while Huatai Securities estimates a 15-20% overvaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the actual effective exchange rate of the US dollar is overvalued by 10%, influenced by factors such as tariff policies and capital flow reversals [2] - The upcoming global central bank policy announcements are expected to clarify the divergence in monetary policies, with the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike potentially exerting further pressure on the US dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with a surge of $360 followed by a sharp decline of $200, ultimately stabilizing above $4200, indicating a highly dynamic trading environment [1][4][11]. Weekly Performance - Last week, gold prices soared, demonstrating a parabolic rise, and after a high jump, it managed to rebound above $4200 [1][4]. - Today's trading opened high with a rebound of $50, suggesting continued upward momentum [5]. - The market is projected to test the resistance level at $4280, with potential for further gains towards $4380 [6][7]. Market Dynamics - Following a high-level drop, there is a possibility of further adjustments, with support levels being monitored at $4200 and $4127 [9][11]. - The gold market has seen a remarkable increase of over $900 in the last two months, with an annual increase nearing $1800, indicating a strong bullish trend despite recent corrections [11]. Influencing Factors - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, including the imposition of tariffs, have significantly impacted market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [13]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, affecting economic data releases and potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices [14]. - Key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are expected to influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [14]. Investment Strategy - Emphasis is placed on the importance of timing in entering and exiting positions in the gold market, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit opportunities [14]. - The expertise of seasoned investment teams is highlighted as a critical factor for achieving high accuracy in trading decisions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that dissenting members of the decision-making body are expected to explain their views in the coming days, with two members believing it is time to lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - There is an acknowledgment of differing opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, which is not surprising [1] - Powell described the recent meeting as quite successful despite the disagreements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dissenting opinions from two members in the Federal Reserve's July decision statement, as highlighted by Bob Michele, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Insights - Bob Michele anticipates that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will assert that the dissenting opinions are not as significant as they may appear [1]