Group 1 - Goldman Sachs Asset Management executives warn that clients are increasingly requesting to withdraw funds from the US market, indicating a shift in perception regarding the safety and dominance of the US market compared to six months ago [1] - Over half (53%) of fund managers surveyed by Quilter believe that the US stock market will be the worst-performing major market by 2025 [1] - The rise in unemployment rates is expected to signal a true market turning point, as retail investor behavior is closely linked to their confidence in their jobs and the economy [1] Group 2 - Investors are broadening their portfolios and shifting focus from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, indicating a move away from the US market [1] - Interest in markets outside the US is rising, with European and UK markets offering more opportunities for significant returns due to lower market efficiency and slower information dissemination compared to the US [2] - The dominance of large-cap tech stocks in the US contrasts with the industry diversity of top companies in the UK and Europe, which are driven by different macro themes and business models [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a recent surge in the US stock market, caution is advised as not all favorable conditions for sustained growth have been met [1][2][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that for a more durable rise in the US stock market, four conditions need to be fulfilled, of which only two have progressed: optimism around a trade agreement with China and stabilization in earnings revisions [2] - The S&P 500 index has recovered nearly half of its losses since February, attributed to the US government's engagement in trade negotiations with other countries [2][3] Group 2 - The current earnings season has seen a record number of mentions of "tariffs" by US companies, reflecting concerns over tariff uncertainties, with approximately 30 companies having canceled or suspended their earnings forecasts [3] - Following a significant rise, the S&P 500 index has surpassed previous resistance levels around 5700 points, returning to the range of 5700 - 6100 points prior to what was termed "liberation day" on April 2 [3] - For the US stock market to achieve more significant gains, further progress in US-China trade relations and improved earnings performance from listed companies are essential [4]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates up to two times within the year, influenced by the recent CPI data and ongoing tariff measures [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. March CPI growth rate was lower than expected and previous values, showing a consistent cooling trend [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation was not significantly evident in March, despite the announcement of a "90-day tariff suspension" by Trump [1] Tariff Measures - Various tariff measures from the White House are still in effect, which may cumulatively increase the PCE deflator index by approximately 1.2% [1] - The overall CPI in the U.S. is unlikely to fall significantly below the current reading of 2.4% for the remainder of the year [1] Market Outlook - The market's pricing for U.S. economic stagnation appears to be adequately reflected, while the pricing for inflation may be underestimated [1] - The outlook for the U.S. stock market remains uncertain [1]