黄金暴力上冲，多头力量继续喷发释放，一不小心，狂飙了150美金。连刷历史新高，多头不减，再战 4500的关口。 今天的走势 昨天捅破4400，又是暴力冲高。 今天直接狂飙50美金，涨破4490。 来到4500附近，决战此关口。 再次上破，看新高，不猜顶。 一方面，美联储主席候选人面试，不断唱鸽，鸽派阵容扩大，宽松派排排站，不断向权利妥协，各种信 号表明，美联储不断被瓦解。多数支持明年或继续降息3次，美元走低，利好黄金大涨。 另外一方面，日央行加息之后，又开始放鹰，此次加息不够，还要继续升利率到1%上方。而且日财长 昨天出手，干预汇率市场，提振日元，美元直接闪崩了，到今天还在贬值，支撑黄金奋力狂奔。 今天消息面 重磅美第三季度GDP来了，可以说是姗姗来迟。来的晚，但影响力还在。关税冲击之下，第三季度经济 到底如何，今晚揭开谜底。也是对于特朗普业绩的检测，以及对于美联储未来预期的导航，或随时引爆 今晚黄金大幅波动。 当然了，4500再遇阻，短期内有调整的需求。 下方回踩，可先看向4428的位置。 再回踩此位置反弹，上方看高位调整。 同时，黄金坐地起飞，超买冲高，存在跳水洗盘修整的过程，下方再次跌穿4428，或回落 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.08 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国就业持续走弱 ⚫ 核心观点： 经济数据方面，11 月美国 ADP 就业数据显示，就业人数减少 3.2 万人。虽然 ADP 新增就业和非农新增就业的单月数据相关性不强，但 二者 3 个月移动平均值的线性关系显著，近期 ADP 就业数据不及预期 说明美国就业市场仍在走弱。除劳动力市场以外，美国其他经济活动 指标整体依然保持韧性。 市场方面，展望 2026 年，美元存在贬值压力。OBBBA 法案带来的 财政宽松加上降息进程尚未结束，AI 对就业的替代加剧了劳动力市场 的松动，从而导致了更低的短端利率，这对美元形成利空。 同时需关注日元升值的尾部风险。当前美元兑日元汇率已经显著 偏离的两国利差对应的水平，日元被低估。残差部分可以由 30 年日 债的期 ...

日本国债12月1日大跌。受日本中央银行可能加息的预期影响，两年期日本国债收益率12月1日升至2008 年以来最高水平。 美国彭博新闻社1日分析，市场对日本央行本月加息的预期有所升温。金融衍生品市场预期日本央行12 月19日会议作出加息决定的概率约为80%，而到明年1月开会前加息概率将升至90%以上。两周前，市 场对12月加息的预期仅为30%。 （文章来源：新华社） 日本两年期国债对货币政策预期尤为敏感，其收益率当天一度上升2.5个基点，涨至1.015%。5年期和10 年期国债收益率分别上涨至1.382%和1.858%。 与此同时，日元对美元汇率当天走强，一度上涨至1美元兑换155.4日元。 日本央行行长植田和男12月1日说，该行将考虑加息利弊并酌情作出决定。三井住友银行首席外汇策略 师铃木博文说："市场对日本央行加息的预期日益增强。这正在助推日元升值，并对两年期日本国债收 益率构成上行推动。" ...

新华社北京12月1日电 日本国债12月1日大跌。受日本中央银行可能即将加息的迹象影响，两年期日本国债收益率12月1日升至2008年以来最高水平。 日本央行行长植田和男1日说，该行将考虑加息利弊并酌情作出决定。三井住友银行首席外汇策略师铃木博文（音译）说："市场对日本央行加息的预期日益 增强。这正在助推日元升值，并对两年期日本国债收益率构成上行压力。" 美国彭博新闻社1日分析，市场对日本央行本月加息的预期有所升温。金融衍生品市场预期日本央行12月19日会议作出加息决定的概率约为80%，而到明年1 月开会前加息概率将升至90%以上。两周前，市场对12月加息的预期仅为30%。 彭博社提供的数据显示，进入本季度以来，日元对美元汇率已下跌5%。由于日本通胀率持续高于日本央行2%的既定目标，批评人士认为央行在加息方面行 动迟缓。 另一方面，日本财务省计划增发中短期国债，以期为首相高市早苗提出的经济刺激方案筹集资金，包括将两年期和5年期国债的发行规模各增加3000亿日元 （约合19.3亿美元），以及增加国库券发行规模6.3万亿日元（405亿美元）。 据彭博社报道，11月28日进行的日本两年期国债拍卖需求疲软，表明投资者在加 ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 76% probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates at the next policy meeting on December 19, with expectations for January exceeding 90% [1][5] - The Japanese yen has weakened significantly, prompting increased market speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [1][6] - Following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, the dollar fell against the yen, and the Japanese stock market saw gains, indicating a positive market reaction to potential policy changes [2][4] Group 2 - Ueda emphasized the need for a timely adjustment of monetary policy to achieve price stability, suggesting a shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy [4][5] - The internal support for interest rate hikes within the Bank of Japan is growing, with several board members indicating that the timing for a rate increase is approaching [4][6] - The Japanese government plans to increase the issuance of short-term government bonds to fund economic initiatives, which may put pressure on short-term bond yields [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Japan could be a favorable investment story in the coming years, particularly for mid-cap stocks, due to supportive government policies [2][4] - The market is cautious about Japanese government bonds due to expected inflation and increased bond issuance, which could disrupt supply-demand balance [6] - The recent comments from government officials indicate a shift in attitude towards the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes, aligning with market expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese financial institutions are revising their forecasts for the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar, expecting it to depreciate to a range of 149 to 156 yen by the end of the year due to fading expectations of early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Exchange Rate Predictions - JPMorgan has significantly lowered its forecast for the yen, predicting it will depreciate to 156 yen by the end of 2025 (previously 142 yen) and to 152 yen by the end of March 2026 (previously 139 yen) [4]. - Other banks, including Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui, have also adjusted their predictions for the yen's depreciation [4][6]. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at a recent meeting, with Governor Ueda indicating no immediate plans for rate hikes, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen [5]. - Market sentiment reflects a cautious stance on potential early rate hikes, with a 57% probability of a rate increase in December as of November 7 [6]. Fiscal Policy Concerns - There is growing caution regarding Kishida's "responsible active fiscal" policies, with expectations that the supplementary budget for 2025 will exceed that of 2024, potentially increasing yen selling pressure [7]. - Analysts note that the government appears to tolerate yen depreciation, which has led to a stronger market reaction than initially anticipated [7]. Potential for Yen Appreciation - Some analysts, like Citigroup's Takashima, predict that the yen may appreciate due to stock market adjustments and a reversal of the current depreciation trend, forecasting a rate of 147 yen per dollar by the end of 2025 [8]. Effective Exchange Rate - The nominal effective exchange rate, as measured by the Nikkei Currency Index, reached a low of 71.4 on October 31, indicating a significant depreciation since the last intervention in July 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese financial institutions are revising their forecasts for the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar, expecting it to depreciate to a range of 149 to 156 yen by the end of the year due to fading expectations of early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies [2][6]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Predictions - Morgan Stanley has significantly lowered its forecast for the yen, predicting it will depreciate to 156 yen by the end of 2025, down from a previous estimate of 142 yen [6][7]. - Other banks, including Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui, have also adjusted their predictions, indicating a general consensus on the yen's depreciation [7]. - The yen depreciated over 4% in October, with a notable drop of more than 7 yen, reaching around 154.5 yen per dollar in early November, marking its lowest point since February [4][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate during the monetary policy meeting on October 30, with Governor Ueda expressing caution regarding future rate hikes [6][8]. - Market sentiment reflects a growing awareness of potential currency intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, as the nominal effective exchange rate index for the yen hit a low of 71.4 on October 31 [11]. - Analysts express skepticism about the immediate prospects for yen appreciation, citing a lack of clear support for early rate hikes and the potential for further yen selling pressure due to the government's fiscal policies [8][9]. Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - Concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's "responsible active fiscal" policies are prevalent, with plans for a supplementary budget expected to exceed the previous year's budget, raising fears of increased yen selling pressure [8][9]. - The market is reacting to the government's perceived tolerance for yen depreciation, with some analysts predicting a reversal in the yen's trend as stock market adjustments occur [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggests that the yen may appreciate to a level of 120-130 yen per dollar due to a narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Currency Outlook - Kuroda indicates that the current exchange rate of approximately 153 yen per dollar is too weak and expects it to revert to 120-130 yen [1] - He believes that the contrasting monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will naturally reduce the interest rate differential, aiding the yen's appreciation [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Context - The Bank of Japan's recent decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, passing with a 7-2 vote, while two members proposed a 25 basis point increase [1] - Market reaction to the decision was relatively muted, with little change in the 10-year Japanese government bond yields and a slight decline in the yen [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Kuroda notes that Japan has achieved its 2% inflation target, with an economic growth rate of approximately 1.5% and an unemployment rate of only 2.6% [2] - He suggests that current economic conditions are suitable for the Bank of Japan to consider further interest rate hikes [2] Group 4: Future Expectations - A majority of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in January next year, despite two members opposing the current decision [2] - Kuroda highlights that the Bank of Japan's recent decisions reflect a desire to observe the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy, which has been less significant than previously anticipated [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Japan's trade data has improved, leading to a strengthening of the yen against the dollar, with the USD/JPY exchange rate slightly declining to 151.8100, down 0.08% [1] - Japan's September trade deficit was reported at 234.6 billion yen, slightly lower than August's 242.8 billion yen, but still far below the market expectation of a surplus of 22 billion yen [1] - Exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the first rebound since April, although it was slightly below the expected 4.6% [1] Group 2 - Imports rose by 3.3%, reaching a three-month high, exceeding the market expectation of a 0.6% increase, indicating a recovery in Japan's economic activity [1] - Political factors, including the appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, have bolstered market confidence in the yen, as she promises to strengthen the economy and defense capabilities [1] - A market survey indicated that 64 out of 67 economists expect Japan's policy interest rate to remain at 0.75% until March 2026, with about 60% anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike this quarter [1] Group 3 - The technical analysis of the USD/JPY exchange rate shows it remains in an upward channel, with a medium-term bullish trend intact [2] - Short-term support is identified at the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) around 151.20; a drop below this level could weaken the short-term upward momentum [2] - The initial resistance level is at the eight-month high of 153.27, and a breakthrough could lead to testing the upper boundary of the upward channel near 156.90 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October is diminishing, but the central bank will maintain a hawkish stance in the short term without feeling an urgent need to raise rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan has already implemented a 60 basis point increase, which has led to a significant rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields [1] - The central bank is expected to act cautiously to avoid excessive tightening of the economy [1] Group 2: Economic Sentiment and Risks - Weak household confidence may limit the Bank of Japan's actions [1] - There is a potential risk of a sudden appreciation of the yen due to increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which could negatively impact Japan's exports and asset markets [1]