点击蓝字，关注我们 分析师认为，鲍威尔的鸽派言论将支撑亚洲股市和货币市场。 本周，亚洲股市有望迎来强劲开局，亚洲货币也可能因此获得支撑。华尔街分析师们还指出，亚 洲股市与货币有望进一步走强。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话表明，美 联储最快将于 9 月的下一次政策会议上采取降息举措。上周五，美国股市大幅上涨，使得道琼斯 工业平均指数创下今年来的新高。与此同时，新兴市场货币结束了连续六天的跌势，因为鲍威尔 的言论导致美元大幅贬值。 以下是分析师和策略师们的观点： 瑞穗证券高级市场经济学家Yusuke Matsuo表示："日本央行正在考虑加息，而美联储则在考虑降 息，因此这两家央行在政策利率方向上极有可能会背道而驰。 外汇市场预计将逐渐朝着日元升值 和美元贬值的方向发展，这反映出市场预期日本央行今年将再进行一次加息，而美联储将进行两 次降息。 " Asia Decoded首席经济学家Priyanka Kishore指出：" 美元走软可能会暂时提振亚洲货币，因为鲍威 尔表示可能会在 9 月降息。 但除非美联储承诺开启更大幅度的宽松政策，否则任何涨势都可能只 是暂时的。" Vantage Market ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan, with increasing market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan following comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown a notable increase, trading around 147.46, reflecting a 0.19% rise from the previous close of 147.18, driven by expectations of a shift in Japan's monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest that if the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary stance, it could lead to heightened policy friction with the US, potentially escalating into a diplomatic issue [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY is currently fluctuating within the range of 147.00 to 147.80, forming a rectangular consolidation pattern, with a breakout above 147.80 potentially leading to further upward movement towards 148.50 and 149.00 [2] - Conversely, a drop below 147.00 and 146.80 could open up downward movement towards psychological levels of 146.00 and even 145.00 [2]

Market Overview - The Tokyo stock market experienced a significant decline on August 14, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1.45% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index decreasing by 1.10% [1] - After two days of gains, profit-taking by investors dominated the market, leading to a slight opening decline [1] Index Performance - The Nikkei index closed down by 625.41 points at 42649.26 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index ended down by 33.96 points at 3057.95 points [1] Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with machinery, wholesale, and transportation machinery sectors experiencing the largest drops [1] - Conversely, seven sectors, including banking, electric and gas utilities, and information and communication, recorded gains [1] Currency Impact - The Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, which contributed to selling pressure on export-related stocks, notably affecting companies like Toyota [1]

Group 1: US Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 106,000 and the previous value of 139,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of better-than-expected results [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring uncertainties [1] - Following the non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut diminished significantly, with the probability dropping from 98% to approximately 80% [1] Group 2: Japan Wage Negotiations - Japan's average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, with small enterprises seeing a growth of 4.65% [2] - The wage growth reflects a tight labor market, potentially supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, although persistent inflation pressures may limit consumer spending and corporate profit margins [2] - Global investors are reducing long positions in the yen due to various short-term challenges, including slow progress on US-Japan trade agreements and uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections [2] Group 3: US Banking Sector - All 22 banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the 4.5% regulatory requirement [3] - Major banks announced increased dividends and stock buyback plans, with Goldman Sachs raising its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, reflecting its strong capital position [3][4] - The banking sector's performance has led to record highs in bank stock prices, with Goldman Sachs' market capitalization surpassing $220 billion [4] Group 4: EDA Software Market - The US government lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, allowing them to fully resume services to Chinese clients [5] - These three companies dominate the EDA market, holding a combined market share of 82% in China, with Synopsys at 32%, Cadence at 30%, and Siemens at 13% [5] - Following the announcement, Cadence and Synopsys saw stock price increases of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $170 billion [5] Group 5: Oracle and OpenAI Partnership - OpenAI has agreed to lease significant computing power from Oracle, totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts, which is enough to power millions of American homes [6] - Oracle's stock price rose over 3%, reaching a new high of $237.03, as the company continues to expand its cloud computing business, particularly targeting AI clients [6][7] - The partnership is part of a larger $500 billion "Star Gate" initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI, aimed at enhancing cloud computing capabilities [6]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan will carefully assess whether speculation regarding U.S. policies could lead to yen appreciation, potentially impacting Japanese corporate profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing stagnation in US-Japan trade negotiations and fluctuating tariff policies are creating dual constraints on the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The rise in Brent crude oil prices, surpassing $85 per barrel due to escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, poses significant cost pressures on Japan's economy, which relies on oil imports for over 90% of its needs [1] - The combined effects of energy-induced inflation and deteriorating trade conditions are reshaping the policy framework for the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Expectations - There remains potential for a policy shift from the Bank of Japan within the year, despite the core CPI growth rate falling to 3.2% in April [3] - Continuous wage growth and persistent inflation in the service sector could serve as potential upward pressures on policy [3] - If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates after the September meeting, the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan may compel the Bank of Japan to reassess the sustainability of its yield curve control policy [3] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Strategy - A structural appreciation trend for the yen requires overcoming three key resistances: narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials, improvement in Japan's current account, and repatriation of overseas capital [3] - The current 10-year US-Japan government bond yield differential remains high at 180 basis points, with the annualized cost of holding yen at approximately 1.2%, making speculative long positions less attractive [3] - From a risk-hedging perspective, when the VIX index exceeds 25, the yen's hedging coefficient against the S&P 500 can reach 0.63, providing unique risk mitigation value for diversified asset portfolios [3] Group 4: Policy Dynamics - The pivotal point for policy will be the guidance from the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September [4] - If the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan may initiate a "preemptive rate hike" in October, accelerating the yen's appreciation process [4] - In the current volatile market environment, a gradual allocation strategy rather than a one-time investment may be a more effective response to policy uncertainties [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Holdings indicates that rising yen yields are prompting Japanese investors to withdraw from U.S. assets, alongside implicit exchange rate pressures from Washington, which may lead to a 6% appreciation of the yen against the dollar in the coming months [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - Nomura recommends shorting the USD/JPY pair, targeting a decline from approximately 145 yen to 136 yen by the end of September [1] - The steady pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is expected to encourage domestic investors to allocate more to local bonds rather than overseas bonds [1] Group 2: Trade and Market Sentiment - Concerns over a depreciating yen, particularly during sensitive bilateral trade negotiations, may exacerbate U.S. worries regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] - Analysts do not anticipate any symbolic foreign exchange agreements between the U.S. and Japan, but the market still expects a tacit understanding regarding a weaker dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury has urged the Bank of Japan to continue tightening its monetary policy to address domestic economic fundamentals, including economic growth and inflation, and to support the yen's value against the dollar [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury's Position - The U.S. Treasury's semi-annual currency report suggests that Japan should continue its monetary tightening to normalize the yen's weakness against the dollar and to achieve structural rebalancing in bilateral trade [1]. - This report marks the first currency assessment of Japan since Trump returned to the White House, potentially fueling market speculation about a rate hike by the Bank of Japan later this year [1][7]. Group 2: Japan's Response - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu stated that the details of monetary policy will be left to the Bank of Japan, emphasizing that he will not comment on foreign government opinions [4]. - Japan's current benchmark interest rate is only 0.5%, significantly lower than other developed countries, despite being the G7 nation with the highest inflation rate [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Former top Japanese currency diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa indicated that the structural convergence of U.S.-Japan interest rates is the core logic behind the potential strengthening of the yen, rather than political pressure from the White House [5]. - The market is witnessing a resurgence of bets on yen appreciation, with hedge funds and long-term investors re-establishing positions at a five-year high, driven by speculation about Japan's currency discussions in trade negotiations [7]. Group 4: Economic Context - Both the U.S. and Japan share a common interest in avoiding excessive currency fluctuations that could harm exports or exacerbate inflation, suggesting a gradual appreciation of the yen may be on the horizon [6].

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank analysts suggest that the Japanese yen may strengthen in the short term due to rising ultra-long-term Japanese government bond yields and the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will not shift to a rate cut policy [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The report indicates skepticism regarding any imminent policy shift by the Bank of Japan, emphasizing that international factors will continue to drive yen appreciation in the near term [1] - Following reports of potential adjustments to Japan's bond issuance plan, ultra-long-term Japanese government bond yields experienced a significant decline [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The disappointing results from the 40-year Japanese government bond auction led to a resurgence in yields, highlighting market volatility and investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that generally, the appreciation of the yen could lower import costs and prices [1] Group 1 - The appreciation of the yen is expected to have a positive impact on import costs [1] - Lower import costs may lead to reduced prices for consumers [1]