新华财经北京10月10日电瑞穗证券亚洲（除日本外）宏观研究主管Vishnu Varathan在一份报告中表示， 尽管随着高市早苗即将出任首相，日本央行在10月份加息的几率正在减弱，但日本央行在短期内仍将保 持鹰派立场，不过不会感到迫切加息的紧迫性。 Varathan指出，迄今为止60个基点的加息已导致长期日本国债收益率出现更大涨幅，因此日本央行将谨 慎行事，避免对经济造成过度紧缩。 他还表示，日本央行可能还会受到脆弱的家庭信心以及"美联储与日本央行政策分歧加剧可能导致日元 突然升值的潜在不利冲击的危险"的限制。 他警告称，如果美联储在日本央行保持鹰派的同时，转向明显鸽派，由此导致的日元飙升可能会重创日 本的出口和资产市场。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is drawing significant attention from financial and capital markets, with varying predictions on market impacts depending on the candidates' economic policies [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Among the candidates, Takashi Kawai is noted for his strong fiscal expansion and monetary easing stance, with predictions suggesting that if he wins, the Nikkei average could rise to around 48,000 points by year-end [2][5]. - Shunichi Suzuki, representing a continuation of the current government's fiscal tightening policies, is perceived as lacking the ability to drive overall market growth, leading to expectations of a slight market adjustment if he wins [4][7]. - Yoshihide Suga's policies are expected to maintain the status quo, with limited impact on market fluctuations if he is elected [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Kawai's victory, with short-term foreign capital inflows boosting related stocks, indicating a strong correlation between candidate selection and market performance [5][8]. - In the foreign exchange market, there is a consensus that Kawai's election would not hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, with expectations for the yen to appreciate towards 145 yen per dollar [4][7]. - Conversely, if Suzuki wins, the yen may depreciate by approximately 2 yen against the dollar, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy direction [7]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Kawai's economic policies emphasize growth through advanced technologies and tax revenue increases, while also showing signs of pragmatic adjustments, such as reconsidering previous tax reduction proposals [7][8]. - Concerns about fiscal deterioration are prevalent, with predictions that the 30-year government bond yield could drop to around 3% from its current level of approximately 3.2% [4][7]. - The upcoming election is expected to be more dynamic than in 2024, with a smaller candidate pool allowing for more in-depth discussions, potentially exposing weaknesses in candidates like Suzuki [8].

9月19日，日本央行宣布将利率水平维持在当前的0.5%不变。这与市场的预期相符。 正如先前文章中所阐述的，笔者认为，日本央行的货币政策在很大程度是在配合美联储的货币政策。在 刚刚结束的美联储9月议息会议上，美联储重新启动降息进程，未来可能还会有一系列的降息措施。在 这样的背景下，叠加当前日本经济的通货膨胀处于相对高位，笔者认为日本央行在不久的将来会谨慎的 上调利率水平。 如果是这样，那么日元在美元贬值的同时会进一步升值，日元的避险功能也会更加凸显。然而，这最终 会使日本经济面临很大的负面压力，日本经济很难走出低增长乃至负增长的低迷状态。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 同日公布的日本8月核心CPI年率从前值3.1%降至2.7%，日本8月全国CPI年率也从前值3.1%降至2.7%， 日本8月全国CPI月率则与前值0.2%持平。 日本最新的8月CPI数据有所下降，但是仍然处于相对高位。另外，在本月的日本央行的会议上，对于 最新的货币政策有两位委员认为应该加息。这使得市场对于 ...

ATFX汇评：本周五亚盘时段，日本央行将公布利率决议结果。具体时间不确定，预计在北京时间上午11:00左右。主流预期认为，日本央行会在本次决议上 继续按兵不动，加息概率较低。当日14:30，日本央行行长植田和男将召开货币政策新闻发布会，重点关注其对日美贸易政策、利率走向及通胀数据的表 态。 全球主流发达经济体的中央银行，大部分处于降息或者暂停降息的状态，只有日本央行存在加息预期。过去两年，美联储、欧央行分别降息3次和8次，累计 降息幅度分别为100基点和235基点，宽松货币政策趋势显著。日本央行反其道而行之，非但没有跟随美联储降息，反而不断提高基准利率。2024年3月份和7 月份、2025年1月份，日本央行分别加息20基点、15基点、25基点。日本与美联储相背离的货币政策，对于日元的升值具有明显促进作用。 ▲ATFX图 技术分析看，日线级别，USDJPY中长期为空头趋势，但自4月22日开始，进入筑底阶段。图中黑色上升趋势线为筑底结构的支撑线，一旦该支撑被有效跌 破，则新一轮下跌走势将开启。昨日K线形态为锤头，典型特征是下影线较长，意味着当前的买入力量较强。并且昨日最低点与7月24日的阶段性低点重 合，形成标准 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will break out of its recent narrow trading range against the US dollar, potentially leading to an appreciation of the yen [1] - Leveraged investors are establishing positions in the options market, anticipating that if the yen breaks above the current range of approximately 147 yen per dollar and surpasses the 145 level, these positions will become profitable [1] - Factors that may drive the yen stronger against the dollar include political turmoil in France and weak US non-farm payroll data, which could increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - On August 26, the trading volume of put options for USD/JPY reached four times that of call options following the dispute between Trump and Cook, as well as France's announcement of a no-confidence vote [2] - The most actively traded put option on that day had a strike price of 144.93, meaning that if the currency pair falls below this price, the value of the put option will increase [2] - Market sentiment has shifted towards bearish positions on USD/JPY, particularly in the 1 to 2-month maturity range, with strategies including digital options and direct put options [2]

Group 1 - The core expectation in the market is for "stock price increases and yen appreciation," with predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 2-3 times and the Bank of Japan will raise rates once this year [1][6]. - There is a strong belief that the Nikkei average index will rise to between 44,000 and 45,000 points in November and December, driven by a reassessment of tariff impacts and potential upward revisions in corporate earnings [3][6]. - The market anticipates that the yen may appreciate beyond 140 yen per dollar, as current expectations have not fully reflected this potential [6]. Group 2 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech highlighted employment risks and hinted at the possibility of rate cuts, surprising the market which had previously been cautious about such moves [3]. - The upcoming U.S. employment data release on September 5 is critical, as poor results could strengthen expectations for a 0.5% rate cut by the Fed [6]. - Concerns about rising inflation in the U.S. could lead to increased selling pressure on the yen, especially if combined with political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan [6].

Core Viewpoint - Powell's dovish remarks are expected to support Asian stock and currency markets, with potential for a strong start in the upcoming week [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets are likely to be buoyed by increased expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, particularly ahead of the September FOMC meeting [1] - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high for the year, influenced by Powell's comments [1] - Emerging market currencies ended a six-day decline due to a substantial depreciation of the US dollar following Powell's statements [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Gerald Gan from Reed Capital suggests that if the trend of increasing rate cut expectations continues, Asian markets will be positively impacted, with controlled yen appreciation not severely affecting Japanese risk assets [1] - Priyanka Kishore from Asia Decoded notes that while a weaker dollar may temporarily boost Asian currencies, sustained gains depend on the Fed committing to more extensive easing policies [1] - Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets indicates that Powell's signals could help mend underlying market vulnerabilities, particularly in tech-heavy markets like Japan and Taiwan, where sentiment is fragile [1] - Jamie Halse from Senjin Capital believes that lower US rates may lead to capital flowing out of the US in search of higher returns, benefiting other regions [1] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - Anna Wu from VanEck Associates highlights that Powell's moderate stance has alleviated barriers to a September rate cut, positively affecting stock and short-term bond markets [2] - Tim Waterer from KCM Trade emphasizes that the prospect of declining US rates may encourage investors to seek returns elsewhere, which is favorable for Asian economies [2] - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market points out that while Powell's comments suggest a possible rate cut, they are contingent on data, and the dollar-yen exchange rate may not break its volatility range [2] - Kazuya Fujiwara from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities notes that Japanese government bond prices may stabilize due to US rate declines, but upside potential is limited due to expectations of BOJ rate hikes [2] - Yusuke Matsuo from Mizuho Securities states that the BOJ is considering rate hikes while the Fed is contemplating cuts, leading to a divergence in policy directions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan, with increasing market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan following comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown a notable increase, trading around 147.46, reflecting a 0.19% rise from the previous close of 147.18, driven by expectations of a shift in Japan's monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest that if the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary stance, it could lead to heightened policy friction with the US, potentially escalating into a diplomatic issue [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY is currently fluctuating within the range of 147.00 to 147.80, forming a rectangular consolidation pattern, with a breakout above 147.80 potentially leading to further upward movement towards 148.50 and 149.00 [2] - Conversely, a drop below 147.00 and 146.80 could open up downward movement towards psychological levels of 146.00 and even 145.00 [2]

Market Overview - The Tokyo stock market experienced a significant decline on August 14, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1.45% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index decreasing by 1.10% [1] - After two days of gains, profit-taking by investors dominated the market, leading to a slight opening decline [1] Index Performance - The Nikkei index closed down by 625.41 points at 42649.26 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index ended down by 33.96 points at 3057.95 points [1] Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with machinery, wholesale, and transportation machinery sectors experiencing the largest drops [1] - Conversely, seven sectors, including banking, electric and gas utilities, and information and communication, recorded gains [1] Currency Impact - The Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, which contributed to selling pressure on export-related stocks, notably affecting companies like Toyota [1]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor Corporation's latest financial report indicates a significant projected decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to U.S. tariff policies and yen appreciation [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025 (April 2025 to March 2026), Toyota expects net profit to drop approximately 44% to 2.66 trillion yen (approximately 18.1 billion USD) [1] - The company's revenue is projected to increase slightly by 1% to 48.5 trillion yen (approximately 330.6 billion USD) [1] - Operating profit is anticipated to decrease by 33% to 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 21.8 billion USD) [1] Impact of External Factors - The U.S. government's automotive tariff policy is expected to reduce Toyota's operating profit by 1.4 trillion yen (approximately 9.5 billion USD) for the current fiscal year, with a reduction of 450 billion yen (approximately 3.1 billion USD) in the April to June period [1] - The appreciation of the yen has diminished its positive impact on Toyota's performance [1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the significantly lowered performance expectations, Toyota's stock price experienced a sharp decline [1] Production and Sales Trends - Despite the challenges, Toyota's global production and sales showed year-on-year growth in the second quarter, attributed to the previous year's decline due to the automaker certification scandal [1]