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雁默:从一个人的武林到武林没这个人,台积电泄密案事有多大?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-12 01:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of TSMC's dominance in the semiconductor industry due to the theft of its 2nm technology by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, which could lead to significant shifts in the global chip market [1][14]. Group 1: Incident Overview - TSMC's 2nm technology was allegedly stolen by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, raising concerns about the security of its proprietary technology [1]. - The incident has sparked debate on whether it is an industrial or state-sponsored act, with implications for TSMC's future and the semiconductor industry as a whole [1][6]. Group 2: Implications for TSMC - TSMC's confidence in its technology stems from its collaboration with upstream and downstream partners, which is crucial for achieving high yield rates [2]. - The initial yield rate for TSMC's 2nm process is reported at 60%, while competitors like Samsung and Intel have significantly lower rates of 30% and 10%, respectively [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Rapidus, a company involved in the development of 2nm chips, is suspected of benefiting from the stolen technology, raising questions about its rapid progress in the semiconductor field [4][5]. - The relationship between Tokyo Electron, Rapidus, and potential state involvement suggests a complex web of interests that could threaten TSMC's market position [4][9]. Group 4: U.S. and Japan's Strategic Interests - The U.S. may leverage Japan's acquisition of TSMC's technology to balance power in the semiconductor market, particularly against TSMC and Samsung [8][11]. - There are concerns that the U.S. could indirectly benefit from the theft, as it may facilitate technology transfer to American companies like Intel [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that TSMC's position as a leader in advanced chip manufacturing may be at risk, potentially leading to a scenario where it no longer holds a dominant role in the industry [14]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the potential for further technology theft could significantly impact TSMC's ability to maintain its competitive edge [12][14].
从一个人的武林到武林没这个人,台积电泄密案事有多大?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-12 01:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of a technology theft incident involving TSMC's 2nm technology by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, which could significantly alter TSMC's dominant position in the semiconductor industry, suggesting a shift from "one person's martial arts world" to "no one in the martial arts world" [1][16]. Group 1: Incident Overview - TSMC's advanced technology may no longer be exclusive to the company, as the theft incident raises concerns about the involvement of U.S. and Japanese semiconductor alliances in acquiring TSMC's secrets [1][9]. - The nature of the incident is questioned, whether it is an industrial act or a state-sponsored action, with implications for TSMC and Taiwan's semiconductor industry [2][7]. Group 2: Technical Collaboration and Yield Improvement - TSMC's confidence in its technology stems from close collaboration with upstream and downstream partners, which is crucial for improving yield rates and achieving profitability [3][6]. - The yield rates for TSMC's 2nm technology are reported at 60%, while competitors like Samsung and Intel have significantly lower rates, indicating the value of the technology being targeted [6][14]. Group 3: Involvement of Other Companies - Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, Tokyo Electron Technology, does not produce chips but plays a role in providing manufacturing equipment and improving yield rates, raising questions about their motives in the theft [5][7]. - Rapidus, a company involved in the development of 2nm chips, is linked to the theft, with suspicions about its rapid progress and potential acquisition of TSMC's technology [5][10]. Group 4: U.S. and Japanese Strategic Interests - The U.S. may benefit from the incident by leveraging Japan's acquisition of 2nm technology to balance power against TSMC and Samsung, rather than replacing them [9][10]. - The article suggests that the U.S. may be using Japan as a proxy to undermine TSMC's position in the semiconductor market, raising concerns about the future of TSMC's technology and its implications for the global supply chain [8][9]. Group 5: Future Implications for TSMC - The potential sharing of stolen technology between Japan and the U.S. could threaten TSMC's competitive edge, leading to a decline in its market dominance [11][14]. - TSMC's production capacity is still heavily reliant on its facilities in Taiwan, which may face challenges as geopolitical tensions and competitive pressures increase [14][16].