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雁默:从一个人的武林到武林没这个人,台积电泄密案事有多大?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-12 01:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of TSMC's dominance in the semiconductor industry due to the theft of its 2nm technology by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, which could lead to significant shifts in the global chip market [1][14]. Group 1: Incident Overview - TSMC's 2nm technology was allegedly stolen by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, raising concerns about the security of its proprietary technology [1]. - The incident has sparked debate on whether it is an industrial or state-sponsored act, with implications for TSMC's future and the semiconductor industry as a whole [1][6]. Group 2: Implications for TSMC - TSMC's confidence in its technology stems from its collaboration with upstream and downstream partners, which is crucial for achieving high yield rates [2]. - The initial yield rate for TSMC's 2nm process is reported at 60%, while competitors like Samsung and Intel have significantly lower rates of 30% and 10%, respectively [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Rapidus, a company involved in the development of 2nm chips, is suspected of benefiting from the stolen technology, raising questions about its rapid progress in the semiconductor field [4][5]. - The relationship between Tokyo Electron, Rapidus, and potential state involvement suggests a complex web of interests that could threaten TSMC's market position [4][9]. Group 4: U.S. and Japan's Strategic Interests - The U.S. may leverage Japan's acquisition of TSMC's technology to balance power in the semiconductor market, particularly against TSMC and Samsung [8][11]. - There are concerns that the U.S. could indirectly benefit from the theft, as it may facilitate technology transfer to American companies like Intel [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that TSMC's position as a leader in advanced chip manufacturing may be at risk, potentially leading to a scenario where it no longer holds a dominant role in the industry [14]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the potential for further technology theft could significantly impact TSMC's ability to maintain its competitive edge [12][14].