芯片业是相当复杂的产业，不过，预测芯片龙头台积电未来的命运倒很简单——它的地位将从"一个人的武林"，变成"武林没这个人"。 在美国强取豪夺的背景下，台积电2纳米技术遭日商东京威力科创偷窃，怎么看都是"动摇岛本"，甚至撼动全球芯片产业的大事。不过，业界有一种声音 似乎想淡化事态，称此案的影响不大，尽管这种说法的理据相当薄弱。 此事件涉及的问题非常多，目前案情还是一团迷雾，但有一个呼之欲出的答案，即台积电最尖端的技术，恐将不再只属于台积电，美国、日本或美日半导 体联盟会想方设法偷、拐、抢、骗其秘方。 两个主要的问题是：此案的性质是产业行为，还是国家行为？此其一。美国如何从这起事件中获益？此其二。 此案的性质是产业行为，还是国家行为？ 东京威力科创是台积电上游的设备供应商，供应光阻涂布机、芯片捷径系统等等产品。除了提供制造设备，台积电的上游厂商有一个重要的功能与下游厂 商类似，即与台积电合力提升"良率"。 将芯片做"小"只是第一关，实现量产是第二关，提升良率以实现盈利是第三关。 芯片技术不是个别生产商独立研发出来的，而是与上下游厂商协力"磨合"出来的。台积电之所以对自家技术充满信心，主要是来自其与上下游厂商的紧密 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of TSMC's dominance in the semiconductor industry due to the theft of its 2nm technology by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, which could lead to significant shifts in the global chip market [1][14]. Group 1: Incident Overview - TSMC's 2nm technology was allegedly stolen by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, raising concerns about the security of its proprietary technology [1]. - The incident has sparked debate on whether it is an industrial or state-sponsored act, with implications for TSMC's future and the semiconductor industry as a whole [1][6]. Group 2: Implications for TSMC - TSMC's confidence in its technology stems from its collaboration with upstream and downstream partners, which is crucial for achieving high yield rates [2]. - The initial yield rate for TSMC's 2nm process is reported at 60%, while competitors like Samsung and Intel have significantly lower rates of 30% and 10%, respectively [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Rapidus, a company involved in the development of 2nm chips, is suspected of benefiting from the stolen technology, raising questions about its rapid progress in the semiconductor field [4][5]. - The relationship between Tokyo Electron, Rapidus, and potential state involvement suggests a complex web of interests that could threaten TSMC's market position [4][9]. Group 4: U.S. and Japan's Strategic Interests - The U.S. may leverage Japan's acquisition of TSMC's technology to balance power in the semiconductor market, particularly against TSMC and Samsung [8][11]. - There are concerns that the U.S. could indirectly benefit from the theft, as it may facilitate technology transfer to American companies like Intel [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that TSMC's position as a leader in advanced chip manufacturing may be at risk, potentially leading to a scenario where it no longer holds a dominant role in the industry [14]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the potential for further technology theft could significantly impact TSMC's ability to maintain its competitive edge [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of a technology theft incident involving TSMC's 2nm technology by Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, which could significantly alter TSMC's dominant position in the semiconductor industry, suggesting a shift from "one person's martial arts world" to "no one in the martial arts world" [1][16]. Group 1: Incident Overview - TSMC's advanced technology may no longer be exclusive to the company, as the theft incident raises concerns about the involvement of U.S. and Japanese semiconductor alliances in acquiring TSMC's secrets [1][9]. - The nature of the incident is questioned, whether it is an industrial act or a state-sponsored action, with implications for TSMC and Taiwan's semiconductor industry [2][7]. Group 2: Technical Collaboration and Yield Improvement - TSMC's confidence in its technology stems from close collaboration with upstream and downstream partners, which is crucial for improving yield rates and achieving profitability [3][6]. - The yield rates for TSMC's 2nm technology are reported at 60%, while competitors like Samsung and Intel have significantly lower rates, indicating the value of the technology being targeted [6][14]. Group 3: Involvement of Other Companies - Tokyo Electron's subsidiary, Tokyo Electron Technology, does not produce chips but plays a role in providing manufacturing equipment and improving yield rates, raising questions about their motives in the theft [5][7]. - Rapidus, a company involved in the development of 2nm chips, is linked to the theft, with suspicions about its rapid progress and potential acquisition of TSMC's technology [5][10]. Group 4: U.S. and Japanese Strategic Interests - The U.S. may benefit from the incident by leveraging Japan's acquisition of 2nm technology to balance power against TSMC and Samsung, rather than replacing them [9][10]. - The article suggests that the U.S. may be using Japan as a proxy to undermine TSMC's position in the semiconductor market, raising concerns about the future of TSMC's technology and its implications for the global supply chain [8][9]. Group 5: Future Implications for TSMC - The potential sharing of stolen technology between Japan and the U.S. could threaten TSMC's competitive edge, leading to a decline in its market dominance [11][14]. - TSMC's production capacity is still heavily reliant on its facilities in Taiwan, which may face challenges as geopolitical tensions and competitive pressures increase [14][16].