11月18日亚市早盘，美元兑日元报155.2300，日内微跌0.01%，波动区间155.18-155.30，近三日于 154.80-155.30窄幅震荡。美日政策博弈与日本经济基本面主导走势，据CME"美联储观察"，12月维持利 率不变概率升至55.6%，日本央行内部加息分歧加剧但短期仍偏谨慎，叠加政府干预预期，多空陷入平 衡。关注155.30阻力，突破上看155.60；失守154.80支撑则下探154.00。 美元兑日元核心驱动为美日货币政策差异与日本经济基本面博弈。美联储当前维持3.75%-4.00%利率区 间，自9月起已累计降息50基点，近期官员表态偏向谨慎，市场对12月降息的押注持续降温，维持利率 不变概率达55.6%。受前期美国政府停摆影响，非农等关键数据延迟发布，FOMC会议纪要与官员讲话 将成为美元走势的核心催化剂，短期美元支撑呈现阶段性企稳特征。 日本方面，经济呈现疲弱态势，三季度GDP环比下降0.4%，年率下降1.8%，虽核心通胀连续3年高于2% 目标，但日本央行连续第六次维持0.5%利率不变。政策委员会内部分歧加剧，已有委员连续呼吁加 息，市场预计12月或明年初存在加息可能。首相高市早苗推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing a limited rebound due to mixed signals from monetary policies in Japan and the U.S., with the market closely watching upcoming economic data for direction [4][6][10]. Group 1: Yen's Rebound Factors - The recent rebound of the yen is primarily supported by the Bank of Japan's hints at potential interest rate hikes, as indicated in the July meeting minutes [4]. - Progress in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and occasional increases in market risk aversion have also contributed positively to the yen [4]. Group 2: Limitations on Yen's Strength - The growth rate of Japan's August services PPI has slowed, indicating a weakening inflationary momentum [5]. - Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming leadership election in Japan's ruling party raises questions about the timing of potential interest rate hikes, deterring investors from heavily buying the yen [5]. - Ongoing unresolved tariff issues between the U.S. and Japan cast a shadow over the yen's outlook [5]. Group 3: Dollar's Stagnation - While the Bank of Japan may tighten its policy, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates, creating a contrasting monetary policy environment that contributes to the dollar's lack of clear direction [6][7]. - Market expectations suggest two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, but Chairman Powell's cautious stance on rapid cuts due to inflation concerns adds to the dollar's uncertainty [6] . Group 4: Technical Signals - The USD/JPY has recently broken above the 200-day moving average, signaling a short-term bullish outlook [8]. - If the exchange rate can maintain above 149.15, it may test the 150 level and potentially approach 151 [8]. Group 5: Support and Resistance Levels - In the event of a pullback, the 148.50 level may act as a support, while a drop below 148 could lead to a decline towards 147 [9]. - Further declines below the 146-146.40 range could weaken the trend, targeting around 145.50 [9]. Group 6: Upcoming Focus - The short-term outlook for the yen is bolstered by hawkish signals from the central bank, but domestic policy uncertainties and trade issues limit its rebound potential [10]. - The market's attention is directed towards the upcoming Tokyo CPI and U.S. PCE data, which are crucial for central bank policy decisions and will likely influence the next movement of the exchange rate [10].