经济数据层面，近期公布的PMI数据也为汇率走势提供线索。日本12月制造业PMI升至50.0，徘徊于荣 枯分界线，商品需求降幅收窄、企业增员等数据为日本央行进一步加息提供支撑，强化了美元兑日元长 期看跌的潜在预期；而美国ISM制造业PMI将于后续公布，市场预测12月数据小幅回升至48.3，若收缩 幅度收窄，或促使美联储立场趋于谨慎，短期提振美元。值得关注的是，本周美国非农就业报告将成为 关键指引，其结果将直接影响市场对美联储政策路径的判断，进而决定美元兑日元的短期方向。 截至2026年1月7日，美元兑日元报156.7000，较前一交易日微涨0.0600，涨幅0.0511%，当日最高触及 156.8000，最低下探156.5300，呈现窄幅震荡态势。当前汇价处于关键关口附近，多空力量暂时平衡， 背后核心驱动逻辑仍围绕美日货币政策分化、利差变化及地缘政治等多重因素展开。 从政策层面看，日本央行的鹰派信号与美联储的降息预期形成鲜明博弈。日本央行在2025年完成两次加 息，年末将政策利率上调至0.75%，为1995年以来最高水平，标志着其超宽松政策进入实质性收尾阶 段。行长近期重申，若经济和物价走势符合预期，将继续推进 ...

新华财经北京1月6日电（崔凯）2025年，美元兑日元结束连续四年上涨趋势，全年呈现显著"V型"走势。年末汇率交投于156上方，逼近 日本当局多次暗示可能干预的160红线。尽管日本央行于12月将政策利率历史性上调至0.75%，为1995年以来最高水平，但因缺乏明确后 续紧缩路径，日元未能实现持续走强。 2025年美元兑日元呈"V型"走势 年初，美元兑日元延续2024年强势，一度升至158.88。随后受多重政策风险冲击快速回落：特朗普重返白宫后宣布大幅加征关税，引发 全球增长担忧；其公开威胁解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，亦引发市场对美联储独立性的质疑，削弱美元信用。避险资金迅速转向日 元，推动美元兑日元于4月下旬跌至年内低点139.88。 年中阶段，尽管部分贸易紧张局势缓和，但政策不确定性持续。日本央行维持利率不变，且对后续加息路径表述模糊，导致市场耐心减 弱。美元兑日元在140至150区间内宽幅震荡。 第三季度成为转折点。高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁并出任首相后，宣布大规模财政刺激计划，引发市场对日本政府债务可持续性的担 忧，推动美元兑日元再度走强，回升至年内高位附近。尽管日本央行于12月将政策利率上调至0.75 ...

10年期日债收益率当前在1.951%附近徘徊，前期高点为1.976%。从技术面来看，20日布林带(参数20,2) 显示中轨为1.941%、上轨为1.991%、下轨为1.891%。若收益率突破上轨，大概率将测试2.00%的重要心 理关口；反之则将下探1.90%和1.85%支撑位。 技术指标层面，10年期日债的MACD指标(参数26,12,9)显示DIFF值为0.032、DEA值为0.038，整体处于 微弱多头区域但动能明显不足，这一特征与决议前市场浓厚的观望情绪高度契合；而美元兑日元近期已 呈现明确下行趋势，日内更是跌破155.00关键心理关口，走势遭遇基本面与技术面的双重压制：从政策 分化来看，日本央行的加息预期与市场对美联储2026年两次降息的鸽派预期形成对冲，美日利差收窄的 压力持续支撑日元走强；技术面角度，240分钟图的20日布林带(参数20,2)显示中轨为155.438、上轨为 156.263、下轨为154.613，当前汇价已逼近下轨位置，且MACD指标显示DIFF值为-2.52、DEA值 为-0.170，绿色动能柱持续放量，进一步确认短期空头占据主导地位；不过日本国内的财政担忧对日元 涨幅形成了一定 ...

日本央行本周18-19日召开12月议息会议，市场普遍预期加息25个基点，但表态偏"鸽"概率较高。行长 植田和男此前释放加息铺垫信号，叠加12月8日日本10年期国债收益率创18年半新高，市场对其后续加 息预期强烈，为日元提供显著支撑。 12月16日(周二)美元兑日元报154.90，较前一交易日下跌0.34(跌幅-0.1997%)，呈震荡走弱态势。当日最 高155.26、最低154.71，开盘155.24与昨收持平。此前纽约尾盘已录得0.36%跌幅，短期市场在日本央行 决议前夕交投谨慎，波动幅度略有扩大。 美联储12月10日完成年内第三次降息(联邦基金利率区间3.5%-3.75%)，会议出现3票反对创近年新高， 政策分歧加剧。鲍威尔表态谨慎未释放2026年降息指引，市场对其明年降息预期降温，一定程度限制美 元兑日元下行空间。 日本经济数据表现疲软，2025年三季度实际GDP修正值年化降幅下修至2.3%，主因企业与公共投资下 滑；仅个人消费增长上调至0.2%，缓解部分下行压力。市场聚焦日本央行会议结果，同时需关注美国 对华汽车关税对日本出口的冲击。 美国今日将公布11月核心PCE(美联储核心通胀指标)，本周还将落地 ...

12月12日，美元兑日元报155.68，当日窄幅震荡。当前市场博弈于日本央行加息预期升温与美日长期利 差优势延续之间，日元短期获政策支撑，但整体弱势未改。 但美日长期利差仍支撑美元，市场看空日元情绪未逆转。美国联邦基金利率维持高位，即便日央行加 息，两国利差仍超5个百分点，美元资产吸引力突出。花旗日元"痛苦指数"、芝商所期权数据均显示市 场偏向美元兑日元上涨，投资者认为此次加息或为象征性举措，不会改变长期持仓立场。 机构普遍看涨美元兑日元，瑞银上调年底预期至158，美银预测2026年初或破160。短期或逐步走高，长 期若利差格局未改有望测试160；但存在下行风险，若日央行政策超预期鹰派或美经济放缓，汇率可能 深度回调，长期公允价值或向140移动。 政策面是近期汇价波动核心。日本央行行长植田和男释放鹰派信号，暗示12月会议或开启加息，市场对 其本月加息25个基点的预期已升至91%；叠加工会明年推薪6%的预期及高通胀，强化了政策正常化必 要性。受此影响，日元小幅反弹，美元兑日元短线回落，空头动能阶段性增强。 后续焦点在日本劳工现金收入数据（关乎日央行加息决策）及美国初请失业金、贸易差额数据（影响美 元走势）。技术 ...

美联储决议前夕：财政担忧对冲加息押注，日元多头举棋不定 日元吸引买盘入场，终结对美元的三连跌走势。市场预期日本央行（BoJ）下周或将紧急加息，叠加谨慎的市场情绪，共同为日元提供支撑。而在关键央行 会议召开前，市场对美联储的鸽派预期令美元及美元兑日元汇率承压。 日元走势分化：通胀数据撑腰，但多头动力不足 周三欧洲盘初，日元兑整体走弱的美元仍维持上行态势，但多头信心略显不足。日本公布的企业商品价格指数（CGPI）超出市场预期，进一步巩固了市场 对日本央行即将加息的押注。叠加谨慎的市场情绪，避险属性的日元从周二触及的两周低点小幅反弹。 不过，日本扩张性财政政策引发的担忧及经济增长疑虑，限制了日元多头的新增押注。投资者目前也持观望态度，选择等待今日稍晚为期两天的美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议结果，以获取关于美联储未来降息路径的更多线索。与此同时，市场对美联储进一步降息的押注，使美元汇率在接近10月末 以来低点的水平持续承压，这一因素或继续对美元兑日元汇率构成利空。 加息预期支撑犹存：数据与央行表态提供动能 尽管日本央行加息预期升温，但日元未能借势扩大日内涨幅。日本央行周三发布的数据显示，10月企业商品价格 ...

12月5日回溯，昨日(周四)欧洲交易时段，日本金融市场成为全球焦点，美元兑日元与日本国债市场同 步上演剧烈波动。汇率端，美元兑日元在155关口附近震荡承压，240分钟周期图表显示，汇价持续运行 于关键均线下方，截至当时报154.889；国债市场层面，多空博弈尤为激烈，十年期日本国债收益率一 度飙升至1.935%，创下2007年7月以来的新高，最终收于该高点位置，全日累计上行4.5个基点。市场此 番异动的核心驱动力，源于一则聚焦日本央行与政府关系的深度报道——该报道基本锁定了日本央行12 月加息的议程，同时也将政策制定者长期面临的市场沟通困境推向台前。 在明确的加息预期冲击下，日本国债市场遭遇大幅抛售压力，经典的"卖事实"行情正式上演。具体来 看，十年期国债期货日内下跌0.34点，收于134.11，盘中最低触及134.08；现货市场表现更为强劲，十 年期基准国债收益率轻松突破1.90%这一重要心理关口，稳步向2.00%关键水平逼近，短期上行势头显 著。 盘中交易细节清晰勾勒出市场情绪的演变轨迹。早盘时段，国债收益率曲线呈现陡峭化走势，各期限收 益率普遍上行，市场提前为当日晚些时候的三十年期国债续发拍卖做足准备。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, leading to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields and a global bond market sell-off [1][2] - The last interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan occurred in January, raising rates from 0.25% to 0.5%, marking the highest borrowing costs in 17 years [1] - Market expectations are shifting as many institutions revise their views on the likelihood of a December rate hike following Ueda's unexpected comments [1][3] Group 2 - Ueda believes that Japan's economic outlook has improved, particularly after a trade agreement with the Trump administration, which reduces uncertainty from U.S. tariffs [2] - The current negative real interest rates in Japan mean that even with a rate hike, borrowing costs will remain low, effectively just easing the monetary policy rather than tightening it [2] - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan is under pressure to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy, with Ueda's comments seen as a signal to test market reactions [2][3] Group 3 - A December rate hike is considered highly probable, with estimates exceeding 70%, driven by the closing window for policy timing rather than an overheating economy [3] - Japan's core inflation has stabilized above 2% for several months, and wage growth is showing positive momentum, increasing the necessity for a rate hike [3] - The Bank of Japan's potential shift to a more hawkish stance could have significant implications for global markets, as it would be the last major central bank to abandon ultra-loose policies [2][3] Group 4 - The anticipated rate hike has already led to a "double whammy" in the Japanese market, with both stocks and bonds facing downward pressure [4] - If the Bank of Japan raises rates, it will confirm a new structural uptrend in Japanese government bond yields, impacting both short and long-term rates [4][5] - The immediate reaction in the currency market is expected to be a strengthening of the yen, with projections suggesting a potential drop in the USD/JPY exchange rate to the 135-140 range [5] Group 5 - The shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan could lead to a tightening of global financial conditions, affecting risk assets and potentially leading to a re-evaluation of leveraged positions in various markets [7][8] - The rise in Japanese bond yields may prompt a withdrawal of funds from U.S. investments, increasing the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses [7] - Concerns are raised about the impact of rising Japanese rates on global debt levels, particularly in high-debt economies, which could lead to a more pronounced risk premium in long-term rates [8] Group 6 - The potential for a "carry trade" unwind due to rising Japanese rates could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly affecting emerging markets and high-valuation growth stocks [9] - Unlike previous market shocks, the current environment is characterized by a more prepared market, with less extreme leverage and a gradual approach to rate hikes [9] - The overall expectation is for a moderate deleveraging process rather than a systemic crisis, with a focus on managing risks associated with currency mismatches and leveraged positions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar due to ongoing expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, with the dollar-yen exchange rate reported at 155.78 yen, down from 156.18 yen in North American markets [1] Group 1 - The two-year Japanese government bond yield has reached 1.000% for the first time in 17 years, driven by easing concerns over US tariffs and persistently high inflation [1] - The recent downward target for the dollar-yen exchange rate is the low of 155.65 yen established last week [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, looking for clues regarding potential policy actions in the upcoming committee meeting later this month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to show a strong oscillating pattern, influenced by both internal economic pressures in Japan and external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][2]. Internal Factors - Japan's economic fundamentals are under pressure, with Q3 GDP declining at an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking a return to negative growth after six quarters. Key contributors to this decline include shrinking exports and a significant drop in private residential investment [1]. - The Japanese government's economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen raises concerns about potential fiscal deterioration, leading to a "sell Japan" trade sentiment that pressures both the yen and Japanese government bonds [1]. - The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy is evident, with ongoing political pressures causing market concerns about the pace of interest rate hikes [1]. External Factors - Market expectations indicate an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, contributing to a relatively stable USD/JPY interest rate differential [2]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Fed initiates a series of rate cuts, the USD/JPY could depreciate by nearly 10% over the next few months, potentially reaching the 140 level by Q1 2026 [2]. - The recent weakness of the yen has drawn significant attention from Japanese authorities, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki mentioning the possibility of intervention, and the Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister emphasizing close monitoring of speculative currency behavior [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY is currently trading within a critical range of 156-157, with resistance near the 160 intervention level and support around 155.80 [3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 58, indicating that there is still potential for upward movement, although momentum appears to be waning [3]. - Key signals to watch include potential currency market intervention by Japanese authorities and the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's December policy decision and the Bank of Japan's rate meeting on December 19 [3].