摩根士丹利策略师表示，如果美国经济放缓迹象日益明显之际美联储连续降息，日元兑美元汇率有望在 未来几个月升值约10%。当前的美元兑日元已偏离其公允价值，如果得以回归，随着美国国债收益率下 降可能拉低公允价值，预计2026年第一季度该汇率将走低。摩根士丹利预测美元兑日元汇率将在明年第 一季度跌至140左右，然后在年底前反弹至147左右。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility, reaching a nine-month high of 154.47 before a sharp decline due to verbal warnings from Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, indicating rising risks of currency intervention [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The USD/JPY fell nearly 100 points, trading at 153.1800 after previously rising by 0.33% [1] - Market participants are increasingly aware of the potential for Japanese government intervention in the currency market, although many believe that the likelihood of actual intervention in the short term remains low [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both noted that the immediate risk of yen intervention is low, even if the yen approaches the critical level of 155 JPY per USD [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that intervention risks will significantly increase if the USD/JPY reaches the 161-162 range, while Bank of America suggests that the exchange rate may first test 158 JPY per USD before any policy response is triggered [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY broke above the resistance level of 153.25-153.30 and stabilized above 154.00, which is seen as a key signal for a bullish trend [2] - If the exchange rate falls below the 154.00 level, it could undermine the recent bullish outlook and push the rate towards the 153.10-154.00 support range [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again in December this year or January next year, despite maintaining the current rate at 0.5% during the latest meeting on October 30 [1][8]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan has kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The central bank has raised rates twice since exiting its quantitative easing policy in 2024, but the yen continues to weaken against the dollar, recently falling below the critical level of 150 [1][4]. - The policy committee members expressed a divided opinion, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [3]. Economic Forecasts - The Bank of Japan updated its economic and inflation forecasts, raising the GDP growth prediction for FY2025 from 0.6% to 0.7%, while maintaining forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 at 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively [3]. - The core CPI forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are projected at 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, respectively, remaining unchanged from previous estimates [3]. Currency and Inflation Concerns - The yen's depreciation is seen as a factor contributing to rising inflation, which could weaken actual potential income and affect consumer spending [7]. - The Bank of Japan's risk report highlighted the volatility of exchange rates and import prices, emphasizing the need to monitor these factors closely [4]. External Influences - There is increasing pressure from both domestic and international policymakers for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, with analysts suggesting that the necessity for a rate hike has grown [6]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments urging Japan to provide the central bank with sufficient policy space have been interpreted as external support for tightening monetary policy [7]. Internal Committee Dynamics - Some members of the Bank of Japan's policy committee are beginning to express concerns about the potential for second-round price effects, with previously dovish members now advocating for rate increases [8]. - The consensus in the market is that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates by the end of this year or early next year, with expectations of increasing borrowing costs to 1% after a pause [8].

从日线图可以看出，美元兑日元目前受制于上升趋势线上轨和下降压力线即153.70附近153.20-153.70位 压力区间。 152.00附近是第一支撑，即5日线与近期汇价突破的点位，之后是150.70附近即8月1日高点，最后是支撑 是149.00也是这波日元贬值的起点，高市早苗夺得党魁当日汇价的最低点。 周五（10月24日）欧市盘中，美元/日元在周五欧市时段交投于152.9500附近，日本9月CPI录得2.9超出 预期，由于市场对高市交易的押注，日元并没有停止贬值，同时日本首相高市早苗周五表态称，"经济 优先、财政随后"的原则将是其施政方针的基础。 自从高市早苗上台之后，其就被当做是安倍经济学的继任者，市场开始押注日元的贬值交易，但事实真 是如此吗，之前虽然高市早苗说过反对央行加息等言论但是自从开启选举，其就明确自己与鸽派主义进 行了分割。由此可知如果继续惯性的押注日元大幅贬值将会是对高市团队方针的误读。 高市团队周五表示其奉行经济优先、财政随后"原则，将作为其施政方针的核心基础。会在"负责任的积 极财政政策"理念框架下，对财政支出进行战略性部署。为保障财政可持续性，将通过降低债务占GDP 比率，稳固市场信心 ...

Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have intensified, with the USD/JPY exchange rate experiencing volatility in a high range, influenced by changes in risk sentiment, monetary policy differences, and macroeconomic expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Risk Sentiment - Risk sentiment remains a significant driver of capital flows, with investors tending to reduce risk assets and increase holdings in safe-haven currencies during periods of uncertainty [3] - The Japanese yen, as a traditional safe-haven asset, tends to gain support when risk appetite declines, thereby exerting pressure on the US dollar [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Differences - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan continues to impact the relative strength of their currencies, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a moderate easing stance in the coming months amid slowing economic growth and easing inflation [3] - In contrast, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its ultra-low interest rate environment, with cautious policy adjustments, affecting capital flows and the USD/JPY exchange rate [3] Group 3: Economic Data - Key economic indicators such as US inflation and employment reports are critical for market observation, with weak data potentially reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts, thereby weakening short-term support for the US dollar [3] - Japan's economic recovery remains moderate, with no significant upward movement in inflation, suggesting that aggressive policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan are unlikely in the short term [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has faced multiple resistance levels in the high range, indicating a weakening upward momentum [3] - A breakdown below key support levels could trigger further adjustments, while stabilization and a breakthrough of previous highs could signal a potential recovery in upward momentum [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/JPY exchange rate will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the performance of US economic data, and shifts in market risk appetite [4]

Group 1 - Nomura Securities reports that foreign capital is returning, with the yen approaching the 150 mark, indicating potential weakness in the currency [1] - Goldman Sachs highlights that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved corporate earnings are supporting risk assets [1][3] - Oxford Economics states that Spain's economic growth is likely to continue into next year, driven by a strong tourism sector, robust job market, and effective use of EU investment funds [1] Group 2 - CBA analysts note that the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes align with market expectations for two rate cuts by year-end, despite potential delays in key economic data due to government shutdown [2] - ING analysts observe low volatility in the Eurozone government bond market, with attractive yield spreads between French, Italian, and German bonds [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that South Korea's exports will maintain a positive trend until the end of 2025, supported by demand for AI semiconductors and non-tech products [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs traders indicate that global stock indices remain above key moving averages, with ample liquidity supporting risk assets and a focus on earnings season and FOMC meetings [3] - Morgan Stanley reports that a tenfold increase in computing power could lead to a non-linear leap in AI model capabilities by 2026, potentially reshaping asset valuations in global supply chains [3] - Nomura strategists mention that a weak yen is driving the Japanese stock market upward, with foreign capital inflow and a projected P/E ratio reaching a high of 17 times since Abe's administration [3]

Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation trend, which may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo region's September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.8% [1] - This data reflects a marginal weakening of domestic inflation momentum in Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Despite the CPI data, most institutions and traders still anticipate that the Bank of Japan may implement a rate hike in October [1] - The rationale behind this expectation is that inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the central bank's price stability target [1] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The weak yen is contributing to import-driven inflation pressures, which policymakers cannot overlook [1] - The recent global financial market sentiment has shown signs of weakening, with geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown concerns reinforcing the yen's traditional safe-haven status [1] Group 4: Market Reactions - The combination of disappointing inflation data and ongoing rate hike expectations has led to a tug-of-war in the yen's performance [1] - If global risk aversion continues to rise or if the Bank of Japan signals any unexpected normalization of policy, it could provide significant support for the yen in the medium term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing a limited rebound due to mixed signals from monetary policies in Japan and the U.S., with the market closely watching upcoming economic data for direction [4][6][10]. Group 1: Yen's Rebound Factors - The recent rebound of the yen is primarily supported by the Bank of Japan's hints at potential interest rate hikes, as indicated in the July meeting minutes [4]. - Progress in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and occasional increases in market risk aversion have also contributed positively to the yen [4]. Group 2: Limitations on Yen's Strength - The growth rate of Japan's August services PPI has slowed, indicating a weakening inflationary momentum [5]. - Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming leadership election in Japan's ruling party raises questions about the timing of potential interest rate hikes, deterring investors from heavily buying the yen [5]. - Ongoing unresolved tariff issues between the U.S. and Japan cast a shadow over the yen's outlook [5]. Group 3: Dollar's Stagnation - While the Bank of Japan may tighten its policy, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates, creating a contrasting monetary policy environment that contributes to the dollar's lack of clear direction [6][7]. - Market expectations suggest two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, but Chairman Powell's cautious stance on rapid cuts due to inflation concerns adds to the dollar's uncertainty [6] . Group 4: Technical Signals - The USD/JPY has recently broken above the 200-day moving average, signaling a short-term bullish outlook [8]. - If the exchange rate can maintain above 149.15, it may test the 150 level and potentially approach 151 [8]. Group 5: Support and Resistance Levels - In the event of a pullback, the 148.50 level may act as a support, while a drop below 148 could lead to a decline towards 147 [9]. - Further declines below the 146-146.40 range could weaken the trend, targeting around 145.50 [9]. Group 6: Upcoming Focus - The short-term outlook for the yen is bolstered by hawkish signals from the central bank, but domestic policy uncertainties and trade issues limit its rebound potential [10]. - The market's attention is directed towards the upcoming Tokyo CPI and U.S. PCE data, which are crucial for central bank policy decisions and will likely influence the next movement of the exchange rate [10].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing slight fluctuations, currently trading around 148.65, down approximately 0.16%, following a period of risk aversion in the financial markets and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The release of the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes has increased market confidence in the yen, although the Federal Reserve's cautious approach continues to support the dollar [3] - The market is awaiting the final GDP data for the second quarter from the U.S., which could exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate if any signs of economic weakness are detected [3] Group 2: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - Key points from the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate that members discussed future monetary policy directions, noting that trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. have reduced uncertainty, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariffs on the economy and prices [4] - Some members emphasized the need to evaluate the impact of the interest rate hike from January this year [5] - All members agreed that if economic and price trends align with expectations, the Bank of Japan should continue to pursue interest rate hikes [6] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve's Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding further policy easing, indicating that the Fed will balance high inflation and a weak job market when making future rate decisions [8] - Financial markets predict potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in the remaining meetings of this year and in the first quarter of 2026, based on the Fed's guidance from last week's meeting [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Exchange Rate - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently in an adjustment phase after a strong upward trend, with expectations of a continuation of the upward movement post-adjustment [10] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midpoint, indicating a bullish bias for this currency pair [10] - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching the zero line, suggesting that the USD/JPY may remain in an adjustment state in the short term [12]