Group 1 - Nomura Securities reports that foreign capital is returning, with the yen approaching the 150 mark, indicating potential weakness in the currency [1] - Goldman Sachs highlights that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved corporate earnings are supporting risk assets [1][3] - Oxford Economics states that Spain's economic growth is likely to continue into next year, driven by a strong tourism sector, robust job market, and effective use of EU investment funds [1] Group 2 - CBA analysts note that the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes align with market expectations for two rate cuts by year-end, despite potential delays in key economic data due to government shutdown [2] - ING analysts observe low volatility in the Eurozone government bond market, with attractive yield spreads between French, Italian, and German bonds [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that South Korea's exports will maintain a positive trend until the end of 2025, supported by demand for AI semiconductors and non-tech products [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs traders indicate that global stock indices remain above key moving averages, with ample liquidity supporting risk assets and a focus on earnings season and FOMC meetings [3] - Morgan Stanley reports that a tenfold increase in computing power could lead to a non-linear leap in AI model capabilities by 2026, potentially reshaping asset valuations in global supply chains [3] - Nomura strategists mention that a weak yen is driving the Japanese stock market upward, with foreign capital inflow and a projected P/E ratio reaching a high of 17 times since Abe's administration [3]

这一政治变动直接搅动了外汇市场。分析师预计，市场短期内可能出现日元抛售，推动美元兑日元汇率 测试150的关键水平。基于此，该行建议结束其自7月21日以来持有的美元兑日元空头交易建议。 市场的下一个焦点将是高市内阁的关键人事任命，特别是财务大臣人选，以及她对日本央行政策独立性 的公开表态。这些信号将决定日元疲软趋势能否持续，并为"早苗经济学"的真实面貌提供初步线索。 "早苗经济学"：三支箭，新重点 日本政坛风云突变，高市早苗 的意外胜出，正将市场目光引向一套可能重塑日本经济格局的新政策 ——"早苗经济学"。 高市早苗意外当选日本执政党自民党新总裁，预示着一套被称为"早苗经济学"的经济政策即将登场。 根据追风交易台消息，野村证券10月5日发布的报告，这套政策被市场解读为前首相安倍晋三"安倍经济 学"的延续，但重心明显向财政扩张倾斜，其对日本货币政策、财政纪律及日元汇率的深远影响正引发 投资者密切关注。 据该报告分析，前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗的胜出，出乎多数市场参与者的预料，他们此前普遍 预期小泉进次郎会当选。高市预计将于10月15日左右被提名为新任首相，随后将立即投入一系列外交与 内政议程，包括月底与美国总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation trend, which may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo region's September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.8% [1] - This data reflects a marginal weakening of domestic inflation momentum in Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Despite the CPI data, most institutions and traders still anticipate that the Bank of Japan may implement a rate hike in October [1] - The rationale behind this expectation is that inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the central bank's price stability target [1] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The weak yen is contributing to import-driven inflation pressures, which policymakers cannot overlook [1] - The recent global financial market sentiment has shown signs of weakening, with geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown concerns reinforcing the yen's traditional safe-haven status [1] Group 4: Market Reactions - The combination of disappointing inflation data and ongoing rate hike expectations has led to a tug-of-war in the yen's performance [1] - If global risk aversion continues to rise or if the Bank of Japan signals any unexpected normalization of policy, it could provide significant support for the yen in the medium term [1]

周四亚洲交易时段，日元小幅反弹，但力度有限；美元则在近两周的高点附近震荡。美元兑日元（USD/JPY）的走势，正反映出市场对两国货币政策的不同 预期。 美日之间的关税问题还没彻底解决，这也给日元前景蒙上阴影。 美元为何也僵持不下？ 这边日本央行可能加息，那边美联储却可能降息。市场预计今年美联储还会降息两次，但主席鲍威尔又强调"不能降太快，怕通胀反弹"。这种暧昧态度让美 元也缺乏明确方向，暂时在高位徘徊。 日元为何想涨又涨不动？ 日元这波反弹，主要靠日本央行"放风"可能继续加息。7月的会议纪要显示，如果通胀和经济走势符合预期，央行支持进一步收紧货币政策。这给日元打了 剂强心针。 同时，美日贸易谈判有所进展，加上市场避险情绪偶尔升温，也帮了日元一把。 不过，日元的反弹后劲明显不足。原因有几方面： 日本8月服务业PPI（生产者价格指数）增速放缓，说明通胀动力有所减弱； 10月日本自民党将进行领导人选举，新领导层会不会推迟加息？政策不确定性让投资者不敢大举做多日元； 下一步看什么？ 日元短期有央行"鹰派"表态撑腰，但受制于国内政策不确定性和贸易问题，反弹空间有限。美元兑日元目前处于多空博弈状态，方向待破。 市场接下来 ...

9月25日周四，美元兑日元汇率小幅波动着下跌，现在大概在148.65这个价位交易，跌了约0.16%。昨天金融市场又冒出了避 险情绪，加上美联储态度谨慎，这使得美元兑日元涨到了近三周的最高位。不过在快速上涨之后，现在汇率进入了短暂的调 整阶段。 周四早上日本央行发布了7月的会议记录，这让市场对日元多了点信心，但美联储的谨慎态度也在支撑着美元。眼下大家都 在等晚上美国公布的第二季度GDP最终数据，如果数据显示美国经济有哪怕一点疲软的迹象，短期内可能会给美元兑日元带 来下跌压力。 日本央行会议说了些啥？ 日本央行周四公布的7月会议记录显示，央行董事会成员们聊了聊未来的货币政策方向，其中关键信息可以总结为这几点： 不少委员提到，美日之间的贸易协定让未来的不确定性降低了，但还是得盯着关税对经济和物价的影响。 有委员认为，目前经济增长和基础通胀暂时停滞的大情况没变化。 所有委员都同意，如果经济和物价的走势能符合预期，日本央行就该接着推进加息。 一位委员表示，做决策前得先看更多数据，因为美国的货币政策和汇率可能会随着通胀、就业情况的变化而快速调整。 有委员觉得，现在通胀在上升，产出缺口也在缩小，政策利率应该往"中性水平"（ ...

周五（9月19日）欧盘时段，美元兑日元保持强势，目前交投于147.90附近，日本央行维持短期政策利 率在0.5%不变，并宣布将逐步减持ETF，一些董事会成员的异议释放出鹰派信号。 日本央行维持利率不变，两委员提议加息25个基点；启动ETF出售计划，每年减持规模达3300亿日元。 美元兑日元汇率保持强势，周五交投区间在147.20至148.11。若本周收盘站稳于146.73至147.91的日线云 图上方，将进一步增强上行偏向。 美联储周三降息后，美元对日元汇率在145.50形成关键低点。随着下行期权倾斜度迅速回落，空头力量 明显减弱。 从季节性规律来看，美元兑日元和欧元兑日元在9月通常呈上涨走势。 日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济和物价按照预期发展，并随着经济和物价状况的改善，将继续提高政 策利率。不考虑通过改变ETF出售速度来调整货币政策。 日本首相候选人高市早苗：将不懈追求经济增长。首要任务应是实现经济增长，而不是恢复财政健康。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from Japan indicates a surprising drop in unemployment and sustained high inflation indicators in Tokyo, strengthening market expectations for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, which may support the yen against the dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased, while inflation indicators in the Tokyo region remain elevated [1] - These economic factors are likely to bolster the yen, providing upward support against the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The foreign exchange market has been primarily influenced by the re-evaluation of interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, which has dominated the fluctuations of the USD/JPY pair [1] - Despite positive domestic fundamentals for the yen, the ability to break through recent consolidation levels will largely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a high-level consolidation range, positioned above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, but short-term momentum is weakening [1] - A breakout above 148.20 could lead to a test of the previous high at 149.00, while a drop below the support level of 146.80 may result in a decline towards 145.50 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights increasing pressure within the Bank of Japan to abandon a vague inflation indicator, with calls for a more hawkish approach focusing on overall inflation rates [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown an upward trend, currently trading around 147.36, reflecting a 0.12% increase from the previous close of 147.18 [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that "potential inflation" remains below the central bank's 2% target, which justifies a gradual rate hike [1] Group 2 - The daily momentum indicators show a mild bearish trend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains stable, indicating a consolidation phase for the exchange rate [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 147.90 (21-day moving average) and the 149.40-149.50 range, which includes the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level [2] - Initial support is found at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 147.10, with further support at 146.20 (50-day moving average) [2]

美元兑日元卖盘推动汇价向147.69的20日简单移动平均线迈进，随后又跌破了147.50关口。随着交易日 接近尾声，该货币对在147.50下方企稳。 目前投资者对日本央行年底前加息的预期概率仅为70%，反映出市场对货币政策正常化进程的疑虑。日 本央行在7月政策会议上未释放明确的紧缩信号，进一步加剧了日元的疲软走势。市场焦点现已转向本 周即将公布的薪资增长和家庭支出数据，这些关键指标将成为判断日本经济复苏力度的重要依据。分析 人士指出，若6月薪资增速和消费支出数据表现强劲，可能重燃市场对日本央行政策转向的预期，从而 为持续承压的日元提供支撑。在当前环境下，日本国内经济数据表现将成为影响日元短期走势的决定性 因素，投资者需密切关注相关数据发布及日本央行的政策表态。 周一（8月4日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:08分，美元兑日元 报价147.67，上涨0.21%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。近期日元兑美元汇率持续走弱，市场 对美日贸易协议能否有效提振日本经济持谨慎态度。 ...

周一（8月4日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:14分，美元兑日元 报价147.60，上涨0.16%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。日本央行行长植田和男在最新政策会 议后的记者会上释放积极信号，指出日本经济正处于"温和复苏"轨道。 美元兑日元动能已略微转向看空。若美元兑日元跌破147.00，下一个支撑位将是7月24日的波动低点 145.85，紧接着是100日与50日简单移动平均线的交汇点145.71。若跌破该位置，将面临144.00关口的考 验。 植田特别强调，新达成的美日贸易协定有效降低了宏观经济不确定性，为日本经济前景注入稳定性。最 新公布的6月经济数据印证了这一判断：工业产出环比增长1.7%，超出市场预期；零售销售同比增长 2.0%，显示国内消费保持韧性。这些积极数据强化了市场对日本经济持续复苏的信心，也进一步巩固 了投资者对央行后续加息的预期。受此影响，日元汇率获得有力支撑，兑美元汇率从近期低点显著反 弹。分析人士认为，若经济复苏态势延续，日本央行可能在年底前启动货币政策正常化进程，这将为日 元提供持续上行动力。 ...