美联储利率轨迹

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ATFX:聚焦美国非农就业报告对美联储利率轨迹的影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 11:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for July, with expectations of an increase of 110,000 jobs, a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, and an annual wage growth of 3.8% [1][4] - Despite a strong overall employment report in June, the labor market shows signs of cooling due to cautious economic outlook and reduced labor supply, with private sector hiring slowing down [3][4] - The unemployment rate is expected to slightly increase to 4.2%, influenced by lower labor force participation rates, particularly among foreign-born workers, which may prevent a sharp rise in unemployment even as hiring demand declines [4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll is estimated to have increased by approximately 110,000, down from the 147,000 increase in June, attributed to the timing of the survey week and a pullback in government hiring [3][4] - Average hourly wage growth is projected to remain stable, with a 0.2% increase in July and a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [4] Group 3 - The article also discusses the neutral outlook for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs, indicating potential resistance and support levels for traders [5][8]