近期美联储官员密集发声，使市场重新校准政策预期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，只要经济数据配 合，短期降息不会偏离通胀目标；旧金山联储主席戴利强调劳动力市场存在"非线性恶化"的风险，有必 要及早采取行动；理事沃勒也认为应在12月降息，并倾向按"逐会评估"的方式推进后续政策。在连续的 温和基调推动下，市场迅速消化预期。CMEFedWatch 显示，在下次会议降息 25 个基点的概率已升至约 80%，高于上周水平。这使美元上周积累的强势有所减弱，也为黄金提供了更持久的支撑。 周二欧洲早盘，市场整体延续前一交易日的分化态势：美元在多项美国核心数据公布前维持窄幅震荡， 而黄金在温和的美联储政策信号及复杂的地缘局势推动下继续守在高位区间。随着9月零售销售、PPI、 11月消费者信心指数与每周就业数据即将公布，交易者的注意力不仅集中在数据本身，也开始讨论—— 在重要就业数据延迟发布的情况下，美联储12月会议是否可能调整时间表。 欧洲时段，美元指数稳定在 100 上方波动，整体保持相对克制的节奏。尽管市场风险偏好较高、且对12 月降息的预期持续升温，但投资者在关键数据出炉前并未进一步压低美元，更多选择评估后续信号。主 要货币方 ...

英镑/美元：11月21日报1.3081，较前一交易日上涨0.0008，自1.2920低位反弹后处于震荡上行通道，站 稳1.3040关键支撑位，MACD红色能量柱小幅放大，RSI运行于52-57的中性偏多区间。支撑位依次为 1.3040、1.3030及50小时均线附近的1.3025，阻力集中在1.3080和1.3100，短期内大概率在1.3030-1.3070 区间震荡上行，突破1.3100需英国经济数据持续向好加持。 美元/日元：11月21日汇率报157.28，较前一交易日下跌0.24，虽呈下行状态，但仍处于近期高位区间， 此前上行趋势中的动能尚未完全消退，短期处于多空博弈的调整阶段。支撑位可关注157.00整数关口及 156.80，阻力集中在157.50和158.00，RSI大概率处于高位回落阶段，需警惕超买后的回调风险，短期内 或在156.80-157.50区间震荡调整。 昨日要闻回顾 1、数据——①9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人，失业率却升至四年来最高的4.4%，美联储降息决策更趋 复杂，利率市场仍定价美联储12月不降息。 ②美国上周初请失业金人数降至9月以来最低水平，续请失业金人数持续增长。 北京时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].

现货黄金（XAU/USD）在欧洲早盘小幅上行至约4120美元，延续近期强势。市场预期美联储12月降息 25个基点的概率超过六成，疲软的消费与就业数据也加深了市场对宽松政策的押注。CME FedWatch工 具显示，到明年1月再度降息的可能性接近80%。降息预期削弱了持有黄金的机会成本，使金价在高位 保持稳健。与此同时，美国政府停摆带来的不确定性仍支撑避险买盘。 在政治面上，美国参议院通过临时拨款法案，并将其提交众议院表决。众议院议长约翰逊预计法案将在 周三获批，总统特朗普也表态支持该方案。这一进展缓解了市场对财政僵局的担忧，推动美元指数 （DXY）在99.60附近企稳，投资者风险偏好回升。避险情绪减弱令黄金涨势暂歇，但在降息预期主导 下，金价下方支撑依旧坚实。 英国最新就业报告显示，三个月失业率升至约5.0%，为近年高位，同时薪资增速放缓。疲软的就业数 据强化了市场对英国央行12月会议可能转向鸽派的预期。此前英央行在声明中删除"谨慎"表述，使市场 进一步削弱对英镑的信心。英镑/美元在欧洲盘时段跌至1.3130附近，若失守关键支撑，短线下行空间 或被进一步打开。 当前市场的主导逻辑在于政策预期与政治进展交织，短 ...

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant fluctuations in gold prices, including a sharp decline of 6.3% on October 21, 2023, have paused a months-long upward trend, despite gold's year-to-date increase of approximately 55% driven by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical and trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a notable drop, falling to around $4,000 before recovering to approximately $4,115, following a record single-day decline of $231 [1]. - The gold market has been a focal point on Wall Street this year, with prices surpassing $4,000 and reaching over $4,300, marking an annual increase exceeding 50% [3]. - The demand for gold is bolstered by central banks increasing their gold reserves, renewed interest in gold ETFs, and domestic investors seeking alternative investment channels after a prolonged downturn in the real estate market [3][4]. Group 2: Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty in trade, and frequent U.S. government shutdowns continue to support gold prices, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Anticipated interest rate cuts later this month and in December are expected to further strengthen gold prices, as declining bond yields may weaken the dollar, benefiting gold performance [4].

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate continued to decline, approaching $1.33, marking a one-week low with a drop of 0.31% due to inflation data falling short of market expectations, intensifying speculation of a rate cut by the Bank of England [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.5%, reaching its lowest level since July 1, driven by disappointing inflation data [1] - The overall inflation rate in September remained steady at 3.8%, below the expected 4%, while core inflation dropped to 3.5%, also lower than the anticipated 3.7% [1] Group 2 - The UK government borrowed £99.8 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast by £7.2 billion [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of England may initiate rate cuts next year, following comments from Governor Bailey regarding a weak labor market and an unemployment rate rising to 4.8% [1] Group 3 - The GBP/USD technical analysis indicates that the exchange rate is close to $1.3330, failing to break the 20-day exponential moving average support level of $1.3407 [2] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 40.00, with a potential bearish momentum if it falls below this level [2] Group 4 - Key support area is identified at the low of August 1 at 1.3140, while the psychological resistance level is at 1.3500 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline from historical highs, stabilizing around 4320 USD, influenced by a strong dollar and profit-taking by bullish investors [1] - Global risk appetite has improved, reducing the demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to easing international trade tensions [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about economic growth, while dovish signals from the Federal Reserve may lead to potential interest rate cuts, providing some support for gold [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Price Levels - Short-term support for gold is around 4300 USD, with a potential drop to the 4240-4200 USD range if this level is breached; resistance is noted at 4380 USD and a breakthrough at 4400 USD could signal a new upward trend [4] - The volatility of gold prices is expected to increase, and monitoring developments in U.S. government operations, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks is crucial for predicting short-term price movements [4] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - Oil prices have continued to decline, reaching a new low around 56 USD, indicating a bearish trend with potential for short-term rebounds [5] Group 4: Forex Market Insights - The U.S. dollar index has retreated from a high of 100.10, currently trading between 98.50 and 98.60, with a bearish outlook but potential for short-term corrections [6] - The euro has shown slight downward movement, with key resistance levels at 1.1660 and 1.1710, while support is found at 1.1585 and 1.1530-40 [6] - The British pound has faced downward pressure, with critical support levels that, if breached, could open further downside potential [7] - The USD/JPY pair shows a short-term bullish trend, influenced by expectations of fiscal stimulus in Japan and U.S. economic fundamentals [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the decline of GBP/USD to around 1.3390, driven by disappointing UK employment data, which has raised speculation about the Bank of England potentially continuing to lower interest rates [1] - The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% for the three months ending in August, the highest level in four years, up from 4.7% in July [1] - Average wage growth for the same period decreased to 4.7%, indicating potential economic weakness [1] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, GBP/USD has broken above the 100-period simple moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting potential for further upward movement [2] - Subsequent upward movement could target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3480-1.3485, with a psychological barrier at 1.3500 [2] - A breakthrough above 1.3500 could trigger further bullish momentum, aiming for the next resistance level near 1.3545-1.3550, or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level [2]

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 98.540, with the euro at 1.1651 and the pound at 1.3406, while the dollar/yen is at 150.610 [1] - The market is awaiting key events including the APEC finance ministers' meeting, Japan's prime minister election, and significant tariff announcements by President Trump regarding Colombia [1][7] - The previous trading day saw the dollar index close at 98.624, with the Chinese yuan closing at 7.1231 against the dollar, and the yuan's midpoint rate adjusted to 7.0973, up by 43 basis points [1] Currency Pair Analysis - The dollar index experienced a slight increase of 0.06% to close at 98.60, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 3.9850% and the 2-year yield at 3.4640% [2] - The euro/dollar pair remained stable, with a previous close down by 0.1%, and technical indicators suggesting a neutral market; resistance levels are at 1.1728 and 1.1778, while support levels are at 1.1626 and 1.1542 [2] - The dollar/yen pair saw an upward movement, breaking through a key Fibonacci retracement level, with potential further gains towards 151.75 supported by positive oscillators [2] Key News Recap - President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks [3] - Discussions between the US and Russia have begun regarding the construction of a tunnel under the Bering Strait [5] - Federal Reserve official Musalem indicated potential support for another rate cut if employment risks increase and inflation remains controlled [6]