| GMT | Event | Vol. | Actual | Consensus | Previous | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FRIDAY, OCT 10 | | | | | | n/a | USD CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions | | | | $-172.5K | | n/a | EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions | | | | €114.3K | | n/a | AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions | | | | $-59.6K | | | SATURDAY, OCT 11 | | | | | | 24h | EUR Spanish National Day | | | | | | | SUNDAY, OCT 12 | | | | | | 24h | JPY Health-Sports Day | | | | | | 21:30 | NZD Business NZ PSI | | | | 47.5 | | 21:45 | NZD Visitor Arrival ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with the US dollar gaining strength due to supportive economic data and geopolitical concerns, while other currencies like the euro and pound are showing mixed trends [2][3]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar showed a "bottoming rebound - range oscillation" pattern, while the euro against the dollar exhibited a similar "bottoming rebound - narrow oscillation" pattern [1]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen is in a "strong trend with short-term consolidation" phase, indicating potential for further upward movement [1]. - The Australian dollar against the US dollar is in a "continuation of the downtrend + short-term support testing" stage, suggesting ongoing weakness [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Insights - Recent strong US economic data has bolstered the dollar's advantage, reducing expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2]. - Federal Reserve officials indicate that consumer spending remains healthy, but there are concerns about potential job losses affecting future spending [2]. - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged due to controlled inflation, as noted by Investec economists [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For the euro/dollar pair, the MACD indicates a weak bearish structure, with potential resistance at 1.1845 and support levels at 1.1645 and 1.1573 [4]. - The pound/dollar pair has seen a significant drop, but it has not closed below the support level of 1.3332, suggesting a possible temporary halt in the downward trend [4]. - The dollar/yen pair has surpassed 149.04, indicating the end of bearish sentiment and the potential for bullish development, with resistance at 150.50 [5].

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 97.33, with mixed movements in major non-USD currencies [1] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate rising by 49 basis points to 7.1057 [3] - The Australian dollar has recently declined, breaking key support levels, but may show potential for recovery if it maintains above certain moving averages [4] - The USD/JPY pair shows signs of upward momentum, with key resistance levels identified at 148.57 and 149.00 [5] - The EUR/USD pair has experienced a pullback but remains above significant moving averages, with potential downward pressure if it falls below certain trend lines [5] Economic Indicators - The focus for today includes the German IFO Business Climate Index to be released at 16:00 [1][9] - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from a previous estimate of 2.9% [8] Key Events - US President Trump is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly [9] - Australia will release its August weighted CPI year-on-year data [9] - The US will report on new home sales and EIA crude oil inventories later in the day [10]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight recovery, increasing by approximately 0.30% during the Asian session on September 19, breaking a two-day decline [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3707.35 per ounce on September 17, but faced selling pressure following optimistic labor market data, leading to profit-taking and a shift towards the dollar [1][3] - Analysts noted that profit-taking was driven by a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy changes, with expectations of rate cuts tempered by Chairman Powell's comments indicating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Despite the initiation of a new easing cycle by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have struggled to find upward momentum, remaining above $3600 per ounce [3] - The market's risk-averse sentiment persists, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year limiting the downside for gold [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance around $3670, with support at approximately $3630, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of recovery following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, which has further pressured gold prices [4] - Positive initial jobless claims data from the U.S. has also contributed to downward pressure on gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is currently cautious, with investors focusing on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, following an unexpected decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, which has strengthened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. USD Analysis - The U.S. Dollar Index is hovering around 97.82, with a slight increase of 0.08% to close at 97.83 on Wednesday, marking a nearly 10% decline year-to-date. Concerns over U.S. fiscal and trade policy uncertainties, along with doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence, continue to suppress the dollar's performance [2]. - Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is oscillating within the range of 97.253 to 98.834, with significant resistance levels at 98.100 (50-day moving average) and 98.317. The market is expected to maintain this range until the CPI data is released, which is anticipated to be a key catalyst for the dollar's next direction [4]. EUR/USD Analysis - The EUR/USD is trading around 1.1700, remaining stable as the dollar weakens. Fitch Ratings predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December, while the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged with a 93% probability. This divergence in monetary policy supports the euro in a weak dollar environment [5]. - From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD has broken below 1.1700 but found strong support near the 20-day moving average (1.1672) and the 50-day moving average (1.1659). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has decreased from 60 to 52, indicating a weakening buying momentum [7]. GBP/USD Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently fluctuating around 1.3530, with the market also focused on the U.S. CPI data. The weak PPI data for August has further increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market consensus suggests that the headline CPI for August may rise to 2.9%, while the core CPI is expected to remain at 3.1% [7]. - Technically, the GBP/USD is consolidating within the range of 1.3500 to 1.3550, with resistance levels at 1.3550, 1.3590, and 1.3681, and support levels at 1.3500, the 20-day moving average (1.3491), and the 50-day moving average (1.3465). The RSI remains bullish but is trending flat, indicating a potential wait for data release before any breakout [9]. Overall Market Sentiment - The U.S. Dollar Index is maintaining a weak pattern within a consolidation range, with the market having largely priced in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The euro is supported by differing policy expectations, although its momentum is weakening, while the pound is consolidating between key support and resistance levels. The foreign exchange market is likely to see clearer directional movement following the release of the U.S. CPI data [9].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that the recent slowdown in U.S. job growth is a sign of economic bottoming rather than a recession, indicating the early stages of a "rolling recovery" [1] - The firm believes that June marked the low point of the current economic cycle, and non-farm employment will not see a sharp decline unless the economy faces another shock [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist forecasts that the U.S. economy is nearing stagnation and will require several interest rate cuts to regain growth momentum, with improvements not expected until 2026 [2] Group 2: Employment Data - The latest employment report is interpreted optimistically by Morgan Stanley, which states that employment data is lagging and the economy has already entered a recovery phase [1] - The report indicates that the employment weakness was most pronounced around the "liberation day," suggesting a cyclical low in non-farm employment [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced slight gains, trading around 97.90, supported by short covering and market caution ahead of inflation data [3] - The euro and British pound both saw slight declines against the dollar, influenced by profit-taking and the rising expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of the Federal Reserve from a hawkish to a dovish approach, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact the foreign exchange market and create opportunities for non-USD currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a high interest rate environment aimed at controlling inflation to signaling potential interest rate cuts, with futures markets indicating nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and possibly two 25 basis point cuts within the year [2][5]. - The shift from hawkish to dovish policy is expected to weaken the dollar's high-interest rate advantage, leading to downward pressure on its value [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Non-USD Currencies - Major non-USD currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen are gaining momentum against the dollar as the latter's appeal diminishes [3][4]. - Emerging market currencies are experiencing relief as financing pressures ease alongside the weakening dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in their exchange rates [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1 involves trend-following by focusing on long positions in major non-USD currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with specific technical levels identified for entry and exit [5][6]. - Strategy 2 suggests a carry trade approach, where traders go long on high-yield currencies (e.g., Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar) while shorting currencies expected to face rate cuts [7]. - Strategy 3 emphasizes volatility trading around key economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements, which are likely to cause significant price movements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - The article highlights that a weak dollar does not guarantee a linear decline, as market corrections and geopolitical events may lead to temporary rebounds [11]. - It stresses the importance of independent assessments of currency strength based on central bank policies and economic fundamentals, along with strict risk management practices [11].

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold decreased by 0.10%, with resistance levels at 3381, 3384, and 3393, while support levels are at 3370, 3366, and 3360. A short position is favored near 3349.5 [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver increased by 0.18%, with resistance levels at 38.00 and 38.35, while support levels are at 37.68 and 37.42. A long position is favored near 38.24 [2][3] Group 3: Crude Oil Market - Spot crude oil rose by 0.64%, with resistance levels at 66.35, 67.00, and 68.00, while support levels are at 65.00, 64.10, and 63.00. The current spot price is approximately $0.50 higher than WTI crude oil futures [3][5] Group 4: Currency Market - The GBP/USD pair increased by 0.03%, with resistance levels at 1.3315, 1.3340, and 1.3363, while support levels are at 1.3280, 1.3265, and 1.3240. A long position is favored near 1.3323 [9][10] - The USD/JPY pair decreased by 0.03%, with resistance levels at 147.68, 147.93, and 148.18, while support levels are at 147.25, 147.10, and 146.85. A short position is favored near 147.28 [11]

Group 1 - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has led traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Fed in September, with a significant shift in market sentiment towards gold [1] - The current sentiment in the gold market shows that 60% of positions are long, indicating bullish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment with 71% long positions, while the S&P 500 Index has 26% long positions [3] - The Nasdaq Index has 40% long positions, and the Dow Jones Index has 70% long positions, reflecting varying levels of investor confidence [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has 37% long positions, while the German DAX 40 Index shows a more balanced sentiment with 56% long positions [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has 34% long positions, while the Euro/GBP pair has 23% long positions, indicating a bearish outlook [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has only 18% long positions, and the Euro/AUD pair shows a very low 5% long positions, suggesting strong bearish sentiment [3] - The GBP/USD pair has 70% long positions, indicating a bullish outlook, while the GBP/JPY pair has 53% long positions [3] - The USD/JPY pair has 35% long positions, and the USD/CAD pair is nearly balanced with 49% long positions [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a very low 12% long positions, indicating a strong bearish sentiment [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1275.100, down by 15.140 or 1.17% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1176.530, down by 12.190 or 1.03% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3350.500, up by 8.200 or 0.25% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.530, down by 0.260 or 0.71% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.141, unchanged [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.317, down by 0.28% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 150.360, down by 0.27% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.643, up by 0.01% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.816, up by 0.44% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 114753.620, down by 1010.460 or 0.87% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 104.870, down by 1.220 or 1.15% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3614.980, down by 83.410 or 2.26% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.953, down by 0.070 or 2.31% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.953, up by 0.002 or 0.05% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.981, up by 0.021 or 0.53% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.395, up by 0.035 or 0.80% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.930, up by 0.045 or 0.92% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.633, up by 0.062 or 1.36% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.721, up by 0.029 or 1.08% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.384, up by 0.036 or 1.08% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.573, up by 0.038 or 1.07% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.555, down by 0.005 or 0.32% [7]