另一方面，美国政府关门进入第十天，参议院否决了旨在结束停摆的多项拨款法案。政府关门导致官方经济数据发布延迟，使美联储在利率决策 上的难度加大。市场担忧，若停摆持续时间过长，可能削弱美元的吸引力，从而为欧元带来上行动能。 ICMarkets据悉，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周四表示，他对再次降息持开放态度。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利周五也指出，美国的通胀率远低于 此前担忧的水平，且美联储正考虑在风险管理框架下进一步降息。 根据CME"美联储观察工具"（FedWatch）的数据显示，货币市场目前预计美联储在10月会议上再次降息的概率高达95%。这意味着市场普遍认为 宽松周期仍将延续，而这将继续削弱美元的支撑力度。 欧元/美元在法国政治危机的阴影下依然表现坚挺。周五亚洲时段，该货币对回升至1.1575附近，结束了连续四天的下跌趋势。尽管法国的政治不 确定性可能限制欧元的进一步上行空间，但美国方面的经济与政治因素为汇价提供了一定支撑。 据《卫报》报道，法国总统马克龙计划于周五晚间任命新总理。本周，法国长期存在的政治僵局进一步恶化，刚上任仅27天的总理勒科尔纽宣布 辞职。"法国总理辞职后的政治动荡削弱了市场对欧元的信心。" ...

昨晚公布的美联储会议纪要并没有什么意外，但重要的是，多位执委会成员仍然对通胀感到担忧，这并 没有打消美联储未来两次降息的可能性，但却增加了人们对未来走势的疑问。 由于法国局势发展尚未平息，地缘政治动荡的风险笼罩着欧元区，欧元/美元连续第四天承压。目前， 法国政局似乎难以摆脱目前的困境，马克龙总统面临大选挑战的风险仍然很高。 在宏观经济环境没有发生重大变化的情况下，欧洲的最新形势无疑对欧元产生了负面影响，目前1.16的 水平略低于挑战水平，美元仍有进一步上涨的空间。 目前，法国的政治局势发展掩盖了美国政府暂时关门的阴影。美国国会拒绝批准新预算，许多公共服务 部门停摆，导致美联储密切关注的许多统计数据目前无法获取。 今天的议程是美联储官员的一系列讲话，其中鲍威尔主席的讲话尤为引人注目。 IC外汇平台对几家大型投资公司押注的欧元强劲上涨的前景保持谨慎，这增加了近期欧元在当前水平附 近盘整的可能性。 ...

法国CAC 40指数跌幅扩大至1.5%；欧元/美元5分钟内下跌约30点，报1.1675；法国与德国10年期国债收 益率利差扩大至86个基点，为一月以来首次。据央视，当地时间10月6日，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马 克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

欧元/美元目前面临一些抛售压力，回吐了部分早前涨幅，并在美元有所回升的推动下，回落至1.1740-1.1730区间。与此同时，美国9月份早些时候公布的数 据显示，ADP报告令人沮丧，而ISM制造业PMI数据略有改善。 IC外汇平台技术面概述欧元/美元 欧元/美元难以坚定上涨，当前的上行阻力位出现在1.1800。 与此同时，多头面临的下一个阻力位是2025年1.1918的上限（9月17日）。若能有效突破该区域，则有望再次测试1.2000的心理关口。 相反，跌破周低点1.1645（9月25日）可能使100日简单移动平均线（SMA）的临时位置1.1605暴露出来，之后是周低点1.1574（8月27日）和8月低点1.1391 （8月1日）。 动量指标依然涨跌互现：相对强弱指数（RSI）略高于50的门槛，这意味着买家正在失去控制。此外，平均方向指数（ADX）接近14，表明趋势目前缺乏力 度。 什么因素可能影响走势？ 欧元/美元短期内或有进一步走高的空间，但持久的突破需要催化剂，例如美联储意外放鸽、对美国资产的需求减弱、欧洲央行更明确地表示愿意维持利率 不变，或者贸易争端取得进展。 美联储试图站稳脚跟 9月17日，美联储 ...

今天的议程相当引人注目，其中德国通胀率和拉加德总统的讲话尤为引人注目。 除了两周前美联储降息后，欧元/美元一度突破1.19的峰值外，整体市场格局保持不变，波动幅度相对有限，目前也不存在任何重大利好。 投资者继续密切关注地缘政治动态、两大主要央行，当然还有特朗普总统，他随时可能带来意外惊喜，并提醒我们他备受争议的个性。 美国中央政府再次濒临关门，因为它预计资产负债表将再次增加。而在其他情况下，正如历史经验所示，这种担忧并不大，因为国会总是能够做出恰当的决 定。 但有时意外会出乎意料地出现，并可能对市场造成暂时的冲击。 利率问题将在很大程度上决定可预见的未来汇率走势，目前来看，并没有什么意外，目前市场押注美联储将在年底前再降息两次。 周二凌晨，欧元/美元维持在1750附近，试图维持温和的上涨势头，并进一步摆脱上周触及1.16的低点。 尽管美元继续面临重大挑战，但另一方面，我仍然怀疑欧洲经济目前是否有能力支撑欧元汇率远高于1.20的水平。 因此，IC外汇平台目前倾向于维持在某个新高点买入美元的策略，因为估计回调还会持续一段时间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has retreated from a high of approximately 1.1750, reflecting new selling pressure on the dollar due to potential government shutdown risks, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. labor market data and business activity indicators [1][5]. Technical Overview - The Euro/USD is attempting to break through the flat 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with technical indicators slightly rising near the midline. However, prices remain significantly above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a long-term upward risk [4]. - In the short term, the Euro/USD is generally neutral to slightly bullish, facing selling pressure near the 100-day SMA while the 200-day SMA (around 1.1690) provides intraday support. The pair is trading above the 20-day SMA, which is trending downward and about to cross with long-term averages [4]. - Support levels are identified at 1.1690, 1.1650, and 1.1615, while resistance levels are at 1.1750, 1.1795, and 1.1830 [4]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 0.2% month-over-month decline in Eurozone Producer Prices, contrasting with a previous increase of 0.5% [4]. - The U.S. faces a potential government shutdown due to a budget impasse, which could delay or suspend the release of critical economic data, including the non-farm payroll report scheduled for Friday [5]. - Upcoming releases include inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the U.S. pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index for September [6].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with the US dollar gaining strength due to supportive economic data and geopolitical concerns, while other currencies like the euro and pound are showing mixed trends [2][3]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar showed a "bottoming rebound - range oscillation" pattern, while the euro against the dollar exhibited a similar "bottoming rebound - narrow oscillation" pattern [1]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen is in a "strong trend with short-term consolidation" phase, indicating potential for further upward movement [1]. - The Australian dollar against the US dollar is in a "continuation of the downtrend + short-term support testing" stage, suggesting ongoing weakness [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Insights - Recent strong US economic data has bolstered the dollar's advantage, reducing expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2]. - Federal Reserve officials indicate that consumer spending remains healthy, but there are concerns about potential job losses affecting future spending [2]. - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged due to controlled inflation, as noted by Investec economists [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For the euro/dollar pair, the MACD indicates a weak bearish structure, with potential resistance at 1.1845 and support levels at 1.1645 and 1.1573 [4]. - The pound/dollar pair has seen a significant drop, but it has not closed below the support level of 1.3332, suggesting a possible temporary halt in the downward trend [4]. - The dollar/yen pair has surpassed 149.04, indicating the end of bearish sentiment and the potential for bullish development, with resistance at 150.50 [5].

Group 1 - The euro has rebounded from a three-week low but remains constrained below 1.1690, with a slight increase observed on Friday after hitting a daily low of 1.1645, although it is expected to see a weekly decline of 0.55% [1] - Strong U.S. GDP growth and a decrease in initial jobless claims have alleviated concerns about the U.S. economy, boosting the dollar and reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, exceeding the previous estimate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending, although weak export activity partially offset this growth [3] Group 2 - President Trump announced new tariffs on heavy trucks, brand-name drugs, and cabinets, raising concerns about global trade uncertainty and negatively impacting risk appetite in Asian markets [2][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of a modest rise in overall PCE inflation to 2.7% [2][4] - Following the release of positive economic data, investors have reduced bets on Federal Reserve easing, with the probability of a rate cut in October dropping from over 90% to 87% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. durable goods orders are expected to decline for the third consecutive month, with a projected decrease of 0.5% in August, following a 2.8% drop in July [1] - Durable goods orders data reflects the cost of orders received by manufacturers, which is influenced by changes in labor or raw material costs [1] - An increase in non-essential goods costs could lead to inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance on interest rates [1] Group 2 - The EUR/USD currency pair is trading cautiously around 1.1750, having faced pressure due to a stronger USD following the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy announcement [4] - The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the EUR/USD is near 1.1744, indicating an unclear short-term outlook [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating between 40.00 and 60.00, suggesting a sideways consolidation trend [5]

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 97.33, with mixed movements in major non-USD currencies [1] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate rising by 49 basis points to 7.1057 [3] - The Australian dollar has recently declined, breaking key support levels, but may show potential for recovery if it maintains above certain moving averages [4] - The USD/JPY pair shows signs of upward momentum, with key resistance levels identified at 148.57 and 149.00 [5] - The EUR/USD pair has experienced a pullback but remains above significant moving averages, with potential downward pressure if it falls below certain trend lines [5] Economic Indicators - The focus for today includes the German IFO Business Climate Index to be released at 16:00 [1][9] - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from a previous estimate of 2.9% [8] Key Events - US President Trump is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly [9] - Australia will release its August weighted CPI year-on-year data [9] - The US will report on new home sales and EIA crude oil inventories later in the day [10]