总体情况 到目前为止，欧元/美元似乎仍将保持盘整状态。突破这一区间需要催化剂——无论是美联储的新指引还是新的贸易消息。在此之前，美元很可能在奠定市 场基调方面保持主导地位。 基本面概述： 由于美元温和上涨，欧元/美元在1.1600附近小幅下跌，投资者正关注本周后半段美国关键数据的发布，包括第二季度GDP数据和个人消费支出(PCE)追踪的 通胀数据。 欧元/美元技术面概述： STARTRADER星迈分析，欧元/美元显示出复苏迹象，但仍处于盘整阶段。上行方面，阻力位位于8月高点1.1742（8月22日）。突破该水平可能为1.1788（7 月24日）和2025年上限1.1830（7月1日）铺平道路。若欧元/美元进一步走强，甚至可能开启2021年9月高点1.1909的大门，略低于1.2000的心理关口。 中期支撑位位于100日简单移动平均线（SMA）1.1502，高于8月低点1.1391（8月1日）和周线基点1.1210（5月29日）。 动量指标依然涨跌互现：相对强弱指数（RSI）略高于50，表明存在温和的上行潜力，但平均方向指数（ADX）低于11，表明缺乏明确的趋势。 | GMT | Event | Vol. | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of the Federal Reserve from a hawkish to a dovish approach, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact the foreign exchange market and create opportunities for non-USD currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a high interest rate environment aimed at controlling inflation to signaling potential interest rate cuts, with futures markets indicating nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and possibly two 25 basis point cuts within the year [2][5]. - The shift from hawkish to dovish policy is expected to weaken the dollar's high-interest rate advantage, leading to downward pressure on its value [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Non-USD Currencies - Major non-USD currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen are gaining momentum against the dollar as the latter's appeal diminishes [3][4]. - Emerging market currencies are experiencing relief as financing pressures ease alongside the weakening dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in their exchange rates [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1 involves trend-following by focusing on long positions in major non-USD currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with specific technical levels identified for entry and exit [5][6]. - Strategy 2 suggests a carry trade approach, where traders go long on high-yield currencies (e.g., Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar) while shorting currencies expected to face rate cuts [7]. - Strategy 3 emphasizes volatility trading around key economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements, which are likely to cause significant price movements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - The article highlights that a weak dollar does not guarantee a linear decline, as market corrections and geopolitical events may lead to temporary rebounds [11]. - It stresses the importance of independent assessments of currency strength based on central bank policies and economic fundamentals, along with strict risk management practices [11].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly due to weak non-farm payroll data, yet the actual decline of the US dollar has been less than anticipated. Despite this, major Wall Street banks are collectively bearish on the dollar, citing overvaluation and weak fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have published reports indicating that the long-term logic for a decline in the dollar remains intact, with significant short-selling potential still available [2][12]. - Following the release of non-farm data, the market's expectation for Fed rate cuts surged from approximately 30 basis points to about 60 basis points, highlighting the weak labor market [5][6]. - Despite the shift in interest rate expectations, the dollar's actual decline has been relatively moderate, suggesting that downward momentum has not been fully realized [6][10]. Group 2: Currency Valuation - Citigroup believes that the current valuation of the euro against the dollar is still below fair value, with potential for the euro/dollar exchange rate to overshoot to 1.20 [3][10]. - Goldman Sachs notes that the dollar's real trade-weighted exchange rate is still 15% above its long-term average, while the US current account deficit stands at 4% of GDP, both of which are unfavorable for the dollar [12]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that domestic policy uncertainties, particularly following the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, add downward pressure on the dollar [12]. Group 3: Short-term Dynamics - The positioning of leveraged funds in dollars has flattened, indicating that previous large-scale liquidations may have concluded, which could affect the dollar's next movements [4][13]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend heavily on three potential catalysts: the nomination of a new Fed governor, changes in the leadership of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the upcoming CPI inflation report on August 12 [4][14]. Group 4: Potential Catalysts - The nomination of Kugler's successor is seen as a direct catalyst that could likely be bearish for the dollar, with potential candidates being Walsh or Hassett [14]. - Changes in BLS leadership could inject uncertainty into upcoming employment reports, leading to market speculation on data outcomes rather than accuracy [14]. - The CPI report on August 12 is critical, as unexpected inflation data could challenge the narrative of rapid Fed rate cuts and support the dollar [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for July, with expectations of an increase of 110,000 jobs, a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, and an annual wage growth of 3.8% [1][4] - Despite a strong overall employment report in June, the labor market shows signs of cooling due to cautious economic outlook and reduced labor supply, with private sector hiring slowing down [3][4] - The unemployment rate is expected to slightly increase to 4.2%, influenced by lower labor force participation rates, particularly among foreign-born workers, which may prevent a sharp rise in unemployment even as hiring demand declines [4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll is estimated to have increased by approximately 110,000, down from the 147,000 increase in June, attributed to the timing of the survey week and a pullback in government hiring [3][4] - Average hourly wage growth is projected to remain stable, with a 0.2% increase in July and a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [4] Group 3 - The article also discusses the neutral outlook for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs, indicating potential resistance and support levels for traders [5][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline among the three major indices, despite reaching historical highs during the trading session [1] - Oppenheimer raised its annual target for the S&P 500 index to 7100 points, indicating an 11% upside potential based on current levels, citing easing trade tensions and steady corporate earnings growth as reasons [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy announcement, with expectations that a dovish signal from Powell could significantly impact market sentiment [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted nearly 22% after the company lowered its full-year earnings forecast for the second time this year, primarily due to slower-than-expected growth in the U.S. obesity market and competition from generic drugs and Eli Lilly's Zepbound [3] - Chinese electric vehicle companies, such as Li Auto and Pony.ai, faced declines of 6.14% and 8.52% respectively, influenced by market sentiment and uncertainties in trade policies, although long-term prospects for China's EV sector remain positive [4] Group 3: Trade and Economic Indicators - The U.S. and China agreed to extend the suspension of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, providing a sense of relief to the market despite the lack of substantial progress in negotiations [5] - Citigroup exited its long position on the euro against the dollar, incurring a loss of $1.3 million, while planning to short the dollar ahead of U.S. employment data, reflecting high volatility in the forex market [5] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - International oil prices rose approximately 4% for both WTI and Brent crude, driven by U.S. pressure on Russia and supply concerns following an attack in Iran [5] - Gold prices remained stable, likely due to reduced safe-haven demand amid easing trade tensions [5]

Group 1 - The data indicates a bullish sentiment in various currency pairs, with significant percentages favoring long positions over short positions [2][3][4] - The Euro to US Dollar pair shows a long position of 56.75% compared to 43.25% for short positions, indicating a strong bullish outlook [3] - The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen pair has a long position of 21.34% against 78.66% for short positions, suggesting a bearish sentiment [4] Group 2 - The New Zealand to US Dollar pair has a long position of 87.34%, indicating a very strong bullish sentiment [2] - The Euro to British Pound pair shows a significant short position of 71.31%, reflecting a bearish outlook [3] - The Euro to Australian Dollar pair has a long position of 12.89%, while the short position is at 87.11%, indicating a strong bearish sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the apparent prosperity of the U.S. economy, underlying structural vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains robust, with nearly 90% of job growth in recent years concentrated in government, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare/education sectors, while key growth sectors like technology, manufacturing, construction, and professional services are slowing down [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the short term, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in December if economic data weakens significantly [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potential exit from high interest rate policies, although it is not anticipated to cut rates on July 30, especially with active job creation and concerns over tariffs potentially driving prices up [2]. - Inflation signals are expected to emerge between July and September, with tariffs likely impacting CPI data, potentially leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.4% to 0.5% [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance and upcoming employment data, with potential upward movements against low-yield currencies [4][5]. - If the labor market shows resilience, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 150, while the USD/CHF may increase to 0.81, depending on risk appetite and ongoing arbitrage trading [4].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1387.350, down by 24.160 or 1.71% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1219.630, down by 13.600 or 1.10% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3341.100, down by 30.200 or 0.90% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 39.025, down by 0.260 or 0.66% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is down by 0.33% at 1.171 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is down by 0.66% at 1.342 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is up by 0.54% at 147.787 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is down by 0.52% at 0.655 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is up by 0.33% at 0.798 [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 115684.210, down by 2635.780 or 2.23% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 114.140, up by 1.890 or 1.68% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3688.680, down by 17.820 or 0.48% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.106, down by 0.040 or 1.27% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.913 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.966, down by 0.005 or 0.13% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.415, up by 0.007 or 0.16% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.960, up by 0.011 or 0.22% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.652, up by 0.030 or 0.65% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.727, up by 0.034 or 1.26% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.392, up by 0.025 or 0.74% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.596, up by 0.031 or 0.87% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.603, up by 0.005 or 0.31% [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) decreased by 25.160 to 1386.350, reflecting a decline of 1.78% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) fell by 18.860 to 1214.370, a decrease of 1.53% [2] - Gold (COMEX) price dropped by 27.100 to 3344.200, down by 0.80% [2] - Silver (COMEX) saw a reduction of 0.305 to 38.980, a decline of 0.78% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) decreased by 0.15% to 1.173 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) fell by 0.38% to 1.346 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) increased by 0.53% to 147.773 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.38% to 0.656 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) rose by 0.21% to 0.797 [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) price decreased by 2011.510 to 116308.480, a decline of 1.70% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.610 to 114.860, up by 2.33% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) rose by 12.340 to 3718.840, an increase of 0.33% [4] - Ripple (XRP) fell by 0.017 to 3.128, down by 0.55% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at 3.925, unchanged [6] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.007 to 3.978, up by 0.18% [7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.009 to 4.417, an increase of 0.20% [7] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.011 to 4.961, up by 0.22% [7] - The 10-year UK Treasury yield rose by 0.028 to 4.650, an increase of 0.61% [7] - The 10-year German Treasury yield increased by 0.040 to 2.733, up by 1.49% [7] - The 10-year French Treasury yield rose by 0.037 to 3.404, an increase of 1.10% [7] - The 10-year Italian Treasury yield increased by 0.046 to 3.611, up by 1.29% [7] - The 10-year Japanese Treasury yield rose by 0.004 to 1.602, an increase of 0.25% [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1407.040, down by 4.470 or 0.32% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1237.570, up by 4.340 or 0.35% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3369.400, down by 1.900 or 0.06% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 39.410, up by 0.125 or 0.32% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.174, down by 0.04% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.350, down by 0.07% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.403, up by 0.28% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.659, down by 0.05% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.796, up by 0.16% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 117514.280, down by 805.710 or 0.68% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 110.830, down by 1.420 or 1.27% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3673.520, down by 32.980 or 0.89% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.130, down by 0.016 or 0.50% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.916 [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 3.961, down by 0.010 or 0.25% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.395, down by 0.013 or 0.29% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.931, down by 0.018 or 0.36% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.622, unchanged [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.694, up by 0.094 or 3.62% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.373, up by 0.100 or 3.06% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.568, up by 0.104 or 3.00% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.590, down by 0.008 or 0.50% [7]