Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global FX (Foreign Exchange) Market** outlook for 2026, emphasizing a **bearish dollar** and a **bullish beta** environment. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bearish Dollar Outlook**: The dollar is expected to have a bearish bias in the first half of 2026 due to factors such as Federal Reserve asymmetries, twin deficits, and a global recovery, although its weakness may be constrained by US economic resilience [6][8][17]. 2. **Currency Predictions**: Key currency forecasts include EUR/USD at 1.20, USD/JPY at 164, and USD/CNY at 7.05 [6][8]. 3. **Global Economic Recovery**: The macroeconomic landscape in 2026 is characterized by procyclicality, synchronized central bank inactivity, and a focus on fiscal policy and AI adoption impacts [6][8][36]. 4. **High Beta/Yielding Currencies**: Preference is given to high beta and yielding currencies, with expectations that DM (Developed Markets) high-yielders like NOK and AUD will benefit from growth pick-up [6][8][36]. 5. **FX Carry Trades**: FX carry trades are anticipated to perform well amid low volatility and central bank inactivity, with a focus on carry-efficient hedges for risk markets [6][8][36]. 6. **US Policy Risks**: US policy remains a significant source of FX risk, with a shift in focus from tariffs to fiscal policy and the Fed's framework [6][8][64]. 7. **AI Impact**: The adoption of AI is expected to influence FX markets, with carry trades linked to AI commodity exporters like AUD and CLP [6][8][52]. 8. **Fiscal Differentiation**: Fiscal differentiation is highlighted as a critical factor, with CHF showing the best fiscal metrics among reserve currencies [49][132]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The dollar's performance has historically correlated with net foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than net equity inflows, indicating a complex relationship between currency strength and investment flows [54][90]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: FX volatility is expected to remain subdued, but historical patterns suggest limited further downside from current low levels [44][46]. 3. **Trade Recommendations**: Specific trade recommendations include maintaining USD shorts, buying AUD/USD, and various options strategies involving EUR/GBP and NOK/JPY [9][8][17]. 4. **Growth Forecasts**: The growth forecasts for 2026 are skewed to the upside, driven by the lagged effects of prior global monetary easing and easier financial conditions [18][19]. 5. **Structural Issues**: The US faces unresolved macro issues, such as the divergence between resilient GDP growth and a softening labor market [30][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and risks in the FX market for 2026.

近期美联储官员密集发声，使市场重新校准政策预期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，只要经济数据配 合，短期降息不会偏离通胀目标；旧金山联储主席戴利强调劳动力市场存在"非线性恶化"的风险，有必 要及早采取行动；理事沃勒也认为应在12月降息，并倾向按"逐会评估"的方式推进后续政策。在连续的 温和基调推动下，市场迅速消化预期。CMEFedWatch 显示，在下次会议降息 25 个基点的概率已升至约 80%，高于上周水平。这使美元上周积累的强势有所减弱，也为黄金提供了更持久的支撑。 周二欧洲早盘，市场整体延续前一交易日的分化态势：美元在多项美国核心数据公布前维持窄幅震荡， 而黄金在温和的美联储政策信号及复杂的地缘局势推动下继续守在高位区间。随着9月零售销售、PPI、 11月消费者信心指数与每周就业数据即将公布，交易者的注意力不仅集中在数据本身，也开始讨论—— 在重要就业数据延迟发布的情况下，美联储12月会议是否可能调整时间表。 欧洲时段，美元指数稳定在 100 上方波动，整体保持相对克制的节奏。尽管市场风险偏好较高、且对12 月降息的预期持续升温，但投资者在关键数据出炉前并未进一步压低美元，更多选择评估后续信号。主 要货币方 ...

英镑/美元：11月21日报1.3081，较前一交易日上涨0.0008，自1.2920低位反弹后处于震荡上行通道，站 稳1.3040关键支撑位，MACD红色能量柱小幅放大，RSI运行于52-57的中性偏多区间。支撑位依次为 1.3040、1.3030及50小时均线附近的1.3025，阻力集中在1.3080和1.3100，短期内大概率在1.3030-1.3070 区间震荡上行，突破1.3100需英国经济数据持续向好加持。 美元/日元：11月21日汇率报157.28，较前一交易日下跌0.24，虽呈下行状态，但仍处于近期高位区间， 此前上行趋势中的动能尚未完全消退，短期处于多空博弈的调整阶段。支撑位可关注157.00整数关口及 156.80，阻力集中在157.50和158.00，RSI大概率处于高位回落阶段，需警惕超买后的回调风险，短期内 或在156.80-157.50区间震荡调整。 昨日要闻回顾 1、数据——①9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人，失业率却升至四年来最高的4.4%，美联储降息决策更趋 复杂，利率市场仍定价美联储12月不降息。 ②美国上周初请失业金人数降至9月以来最低水平，续请失业金人数持续增长。 北京时 ...

周四亚洲时段，黄金价格保持温和上行，盘中多次在4110美元附近获得支撑。由于美国9月非农就业数 据因政府停摆而推迟公布，市场在缺乏关键指引的背景下重新定价经济前景，避险买盘使贵金属维持强 势。而外汇市场方面，美联储最新会议纪要偏向鹰派，使欧元持续承压，欧元/美元延续区间弱势整 理。 汇价走势主要跟随美元利率预期变化，短线风险依旧集中在1.1500下方区域。 美元指数（DXY） 就业报告仍是影响方向的关键变量，在数据落地前，波动度可能维持偏高。 当前市场在"鹰派纪要"与"数据延迟"之间来回权衡，美元维持上行倾向，欧元承压，而黄金依旧受避险 情绪支撑。即将补发的9月非农将成为主导欧美货币与贵金属方向的核心变量，市场情绪短线或随数据 出现明显波动。 交易员情绪主要受两条脉络影响。一方面，最新FOMC会议纪要显示决策层内部虽然观点分歧明显，但 整体语气仍偏向紧缩，多数官员并不支持在12月进一步宽松，市场对降息的预期因此从约42%下调至三 成左右。另一方面，停摆导致的就业数据延迟发布增加了判断难度，9月非农将在周四晚间补发，短期 内可能直接左右对12月政策路径的重新定价。事件叠加使避险需求和利率预期不断调整。 黄金自周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].

Core Points - The US dollar index experienced a sudden decline on the evening of November 11, leading to a rise in non-US currencies [1][3] - The ADP reported a weekly average reduction of 11,250 jobs in the private sector for the four weeks ending October 25, indicating a deterioration in the labor market [4][5] - The report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas highlighted that the number of announced layoffs in October was the highest for that month in over two decades, raising concerns about labor market health [5] - A survey by the University of Michigan revealed that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, the highest percentage since 1980 [5] - Goldman Sachs economists estimate that non-farm employment in the US may decrease by 50,000 in October, considering employees participating in the government "deferred resignation plan" [5] - The latest employment data has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with a nearly 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the VPC indicator strategy, which is intended for reference and not as investment advice [1] - The strategy update was released on November 7, 2025, at 15:50 Beijing time [1] Group 2 - The article provides a bullish scenario for the price above 48.07 and a bearish scenario below this level [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at 48.73, 49.02, and 49.23, while support levels are at 48.40, 48.17, and 47.80 [5] Group 3 - The article includes information on the Euro/USD currency pair, with a current price of 1.15316, showing a slight decrease of 0.00001 (-0.00%) [9] - The article outlines a bearish scenario below 1.1533 and a bullish scenario above this level [9] - Key support levels are at 1.1521, 1.1509, and 1.1496, while resistance levels are at 1.15550 and 1.15525 [9] Group 4 - The article mentions a bullish scenario for the price above 0.6485 and a bearish scenario below this level [15] - Key support levels are at 0.6470, 0.6442, and 0.6370, while resistance levels are at 0.6496, 0.6512, and 0.6522 [15]

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

Group 1 - The euro continues to appreciate, breaking through 1.1650, reaching a one-week high [1][3] - The market sentiment is supported by easing US-China trade tensions, a rare earth agreement with Japan, and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The euro/dollar bullish momentum remains weak, with resistance levels at 1.1670 and 1.1730 [1][4][6] Group 2 - The German GfK consumer confidence index for November fell to -24.1, the lowest in seven months, contrary to market expectations [4] - The US and Japan have signed a framework agreement to ensure rare earth supply and reduce dependence on China, boosting investor sentiment [4][6] - The euro/dollar has shown a short-term bullish trend since the low of 1.1580, but momentum indicators suggest a weakening trend [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Euro/USD exchange rate is influenced by both Eurozone economic data and trade dynamics, with the current trading price around 1.1622, showing a slight decline of 0.04% from the previous day's close of 1.1627 [1] - Eurozone business activity in October has shown stronger-than-expected growth, particularly in the services sector, with the HSS PMI index exceeding market predictions, providing immediate support for the Euro [1] - Despite the weak US CPI data being favorable for the Euro, the market has already priced in the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts, limiting the Euro's upward movement [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis of the Euro/USD indicates that the currency pair is trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the swing high of 1.1728 to the swing low of 1.1576, facing resistance at the 1.1650 level and the 100 simple moving average [2] - A potential breakout above the 1.1690 resistance could push the currency pair towards 1.1750, while failure to break above 1.1650 may lead to a decline, with support expected at 1.1610 and major support at 1.1540 [2] - If the price closes below the 1.1540 area, it could trigger a significant retracement towards 1.1500, with further declines potentially testing the 1.1440 level [2]