在风云变幻的金融市场,每一次关键数据的发布都如同一颗投入湖面的石子,而美国非农就业报告更是其中的"重磅炸弹",牵动着全球投资者的神经。1月9日,高 盛就即将发布的美国2025年12月份非农就业报告给出了前瞻性分析,其核心观点直指:数据需"大幅意外"才能撼动美联储4月降息预期。这一论断背后,蕴含着 怎样的市场逻辑与经济信号? 高盛前瞻:非农数据"波澜不惊"难改降息预期 高盛在致客户的研究报告中,对即将到来的非农就业报告进行了细致解读。高盛预计,这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人,与普遍预期基本一致。尽管非正 式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险,但高盛坚定认为,一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现有的宏观经济叙事。 当前,市场对于美联储的政策预期已形成较为稳固的共识。市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息,首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。高 盛进一步强调,需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外,才能显著地将这一降息时点提前或推后。这就好比一艘在平静海面上航行的巨轮,非农数 据只有掀起足够大的"风浪",才能改变其既定的航向。 来源：壹点文明 然而,金融市场总是充满了不确定性,非农就业 ...

从市场角度来看，高盛将 7 万至 10 万人之间的非农数据描述为对股市最有利的结果，这符合经济持续 扩张且不引发通胀担忧或威胁宽松周期的预期。这样的结果将支持美国经济正在逐渐放缓而非突然停滞 的观点。 相比之下，若非农数据低于 5 万人，将被解读为低于经济估算的盈亏平衡就业增长率，可能会引发投资 者对增长急剧放缓的担忧，从而令市场不安。在另一个极端情况下，高盛表示，若就业人数超过 12.5 万人，可能会促使市场重新评估美联储首次降息的时机，将预期推迟至 6 月。 高盛在致客户的一份报告中表示，预计非农就业人数增长约 70000 人，这与目前的主流共识基本一致。 尽管非正式的市场"传闻"指向轻微的上行风险，但该行认为，若结果接近预期，将强化现有的宏观叙 事，而非破坏它。 市场目前定价今年美联储将有两次完整的降息，预计首次 25 个基点的降息将在 4 月下旬左右。高盛表 示，劳动力数据需要出现"相当剧烈"的上行或下行意外，才能显著提前或推迟这一时间点。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛表示，即将公布的美国非农就业报告不太可能实质性改变市场对美联储政策的 预期，除非数据出现重大意外，因为目前的市场定价已牢牢锚定在年中开始宽 ...

现货白银盘中大跌超3%，现报78.36美元/盎司，日内超3%。纽约期银日内跌幅达3.5%，现报78.20美元/盎司。 北京时间1月7日亚市早盘，受地缘政治紧张局势升级提振避险需求影响，现货黄金持续走高，逼近4500美元/盎司关口，随后直线下挫。截至发稿，现货 黄金跌近4450美元/盎司，报4450.56美元/盎司，日内跌近1%；纽约黄金报4455.99美元/盎司，日内跌0.89%。 | -4.692 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纽约黄金 CFD(2602) ▶ ○ 期 GC | V | | | | 4455,99 -40.11 -0.89% | | | | | 01-07 14:44:12 | | | | | 今开 4505.40 4512.40 持仓量 | | 最高 | | | 振幅 4453.20 | 1.32% | 最低 | | | 美元指数 98.5332 -0.0661% | | | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多,日 ◎ | | | | | 均价:4480.43 最新:4455.99 -40.11 -0.89% | | | | | 4539. ...

来源：中国商报 北京时间1月7日亚市早盘，受地缘政治紧张局势升级提振避险需求影响，现货黄金持续走高，逼近4500美元/盎司关口，随后直线下挫。截至发稿，现货 黄金跌破4470美元/盎司，报4465.77美元/盎司，日内跌0.64%；COMEX黄金报4476.9美元/盎司，日内跌0.44%。 | 伦敦金现(SPTAUUSDOZ) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易中 01-07 09:50:04 | | | | | | | | 4465.77 均0.00 | | | 昨结 4494.59 持仓 0 | | | | | -28.82 -0.64% 量 0 | | | 昨收 4494.59 日增 0.00 | | | | | 分时 周Ｋ | 五日 | 日K | 月K | | 更多』 ◎ | | | 4524.522 | | | | 0.67% | 盘口 卖1 4466.015 | C | | | | | | | ¥1 4465.445 | 0 | | | | | | | 09:49 4464.970 | 0 + | | 449 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月5日，ATFX汇市前瞻：本周五21：30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国12月非农就业报告，这是美国政 府停摆以来，第一个不受影响的完整月份非农就业报告，指导意义较强。报告中最受关注的数据是新增 非农就业人口，前值为6.4万人，预期值5.3万人，预期略显悲观。历史数据看，2025年5月份以来，美国 的新增非农就业人口数据一直低位徘徊，某些月份甚至跌入负值区间。从预期对行情的影响来看，非农 数据较差，可能不会显著利空美元指数。但是，非农数据超预期靓丽，极有可能显著提振美指。需要提 醒的是，11月份的数据曾被下修至-10.5万人，如果按照修正后的数据看，5.3万人算是比较乐观的预 期。不过，11月份有一半时间处于美国政府停摆状态，数据可靠性不足，12月份数据与11月份数据对比 产生的利多效应较弱。美国就业市场疲软的事实已经成为共识，只要非农数据不再出现严重的负增长， 公布值在5万人以下的话，预计对美元指数的冲击不会太强。 ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 本周三18：00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区12月CPI年率，前值为2.1%，预期值2%，预期略微下降。欧元 区12月核心CPI年率，前值为2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September exceeded expectations, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly higher than the market forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. However, the market's reaction to this data was relatively muted, as indicated by the minor fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The September non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 jobs, while higher than previous values and expectations, remains low compared to earlier months, such as May when the increase was 323,000 jobs, approximately three times the September figure [3]. - The employment market showed improvement in September compared to the previous months of May to August, but it still appears weak when compared to earlier periods [3]. - The positive non-farm data has led to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, dropping to 40% from over 90% a month prior, according to CME Group's FedWatch data [3]. Group 2: Future Employment Reports - The upcoming non-farm payroll reports for October and November are uncertain due to the government shutdown, which affected data collection for October and may impact the November report as well [3]. - The potential delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll report is anticipated, as the first Friday of December may not see timely publication due to data collection issues [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the strong non-farm employment report, the market's response was subdued, with the U.S. dollar index showing a volatility of only 0.09% and gold and silver fluctuating by 0.15% and 0.98%, respectively [1]. - The dollar index had already shown a bullish trend prior to the data release, suggesting that some investors may have positioned themselves in advance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, influenced by the contrasting economic data from the Eurozone and the US, with upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data expected to be critical for future direction [1][2] Fundamental Analysis - Eurozone's October harmonized CPI decreased to 2.1% year-on-year, while core inflation remained stable at 2.4%, leading the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes and maintain a neutral dovish policy, resulting in a lack of support for the Euro [1] - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims data indicating a softening, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts; however, a 1.4% month-on-month increase in August factory orders mitigates downward concerns [1] - The resilience of the US dollar index is attributed to global stock market sell-offs that have triggered safe-haven demand [1] Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate has retreated from a high of 1.1918, with a mild rebound from a low of 1.1468, currently consolidating around 1.1530; key support levels are at 1.1541 and 1.1468, while resistance levels are at 1.1700 and the 1.1654-94 cloud area [2] - MACD indicates a reduction in downward momentum, and RSI shows a slight recovery, but the ADX below 16 suggests a weak trend, indicating potential for continued fluctuation before data releases [2] - Future movements will depend on three main variables: US economic data, the recovery strength of the Eurozone, and global risk sentiment; short-term trading may remain within the 1.1468-1.1700 range, with a stable position above 1.1600 potentially targeting 1.1655-1.1700, while a drop below 1.1541 could lead to a decline towards 1.1468 [2]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, specifically the September non-farm payroll changes and unemployment rate, which were scheduled for announcement at 20:30 Beijing time on October 3 [1] Economic Data Impact - The delay in the release of the September non-farm employment data and unemployment rate is a direct consequence of the government shutdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently impact gold prices. Recent data indicates a softening labor market, which has led to increased expectations for rate cuts and heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [1][3][4]. Group 1 - Gold prices fell by 0.4% to $3545.63 per ounce, with a low of $3511.44 per ounce during the session, primarily due to profit-taking by traders after a record high [3][4]. - The increase in initial jobless claims to 237,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000, reflects a cooling labor market, reinforcing the anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - The non-farm payroll report is seen as a critical indicator that could shift market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, directly affecting the U.S. dollar and gold prices [3][4]. Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by a strong upward trend, but the market is now cautious ahead of the employment report, with many investors opting to wait for clearer data before making significant moves [3][4]. - The technical outlook suggests that a breakthrough in the $3530-$3560 range could provide direction for short-term price movements [4]. - The potential for gold prices to return to historical highs exists, particularly if employment data is weak, while strong employment figures could lead to increased downward pressure on gold prices due to a stronger dollar and rising yields [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to confirm a weak labor market, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 jobs in August, slightly above July's 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month and slow down year-over-year from 3.9% to 3.7% [1] - A "sweet spot" for non-farm payroll data is identified, where the figures should be weak enough to justify a Federal Reserve rate cut but not so weak as to heighten recession fears, which could influence stock market reactions [1] Group 2 - The gold market is closely watching the non-farm payroll report, as weak employment data could reinforce rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, thereby supporting gold's safe-haven demand [1] - If the employment data exceeds expectations, gold may face increased pressure, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips in the current environment [1] - The recent increase in new unemployment claims has further supported the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is also impacting oil prices, leading to a bearish outlook on crude oil [2]