ATFX汇评：美国9月非农就业报告大超预期，新增非农就业人口冲高至11.9万人，远高于市场预期的5万人，高于前值2.2万人。美国副总统万斯表示，预 计市场将因非农就业报告而"疯狂"。不过，从美指、黄金白银的表现来看，资金面对该数据的反应较为平淡。美元指数当日波幅0.09%，黄金白银的波幅 分别为0.15%、0.98%。比较特殊的是美元指数，在数据发布的前一天收出长阳线，可能有"聪明资金"提前入市布局。 ▲ATFX图 历史数据看，9月份11.9万人的新增非农就业人口虽然高于前值和预期值，但相比5月份之前的数据仍处于相对低位。比如，2024年12月份，新增非农就业 人口高达32.3万人，约为9月份数据的三倍左右。美国9月就业市场相比5~8月有所好转，但相比更早时期，就业市场仍显疲软。 9月非农数据表现靓丽，多名关键人物发表就业市场的乐观看法，12月份美联储降息预期再度降低。根据芝商所的FedWatch数据，美联储在12月份的降息 概率下降至40%，而在一个月前，该模型给出的降息概率在90%以上。不过，9月份的非农就业报告无法代表当前美国的劳动力市场变化情况。正如美联 储理事哈玛克所说："非农就业报告略显过时，但基 ...

欧元兑美元技术分析 技术面看，欧元兑美元自1.1918高点回落调整，虽从1.1468低点温和反弹，但上行动能不足，近期围绕 1.1530窄幅整理；支撑位聚焦1.1541及1.1468（11月反弹起点），阻力位集中于1.1700、1.1654-94云区 等，MACD显示下行动能衰减，RSI小幅回暖，但ADX低于16表明趋势疲弱，数据前大概率震荡。后市 走势取决于美国经济数据、欧元区复苏力度及全球风险情绪三大变量，短期汇价或维持1.1468-1.1700区 间，站稳1.1600可看1.1655-1.1700，跌破1.1541则可能下探1.1468，投资者需待数据明确方向再布局。 建议可通过欧元兑美元关键数据监测表，实时跟踪通胀、就业等核心指标动态。 11月20日，欧元兑美元报1.1529，当日微涨0.0004，最高1.1542、最低1.1527，呈窄幅震荡。当前汇价多 空博弈激烈，欧元区通胀降温与美国经济数据分化形成制衡，技术面处于整理阶段，美联储会议纪要与 非农数据将成破局关键。 基本面呈现通胀与政策博弈下的区间制衡格局：欧元区10月调和CPI同比降至2.1%，核心通胀稳定在 2.4%，通胀趋缓使欧洲央行暂停加 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, specifically the September non-farm payroll changes and unemployment rate, which were scheduled for announcement at 20:30 Beijing time on October 3 [1] Economic Data Impact - The delay in the release of the September non-farm employment data and unemployment rate is a direct consequence of the government shutdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently impact gold prices. Recent data indicates a softening labor market, which has led to increased expectations for rate cuts and heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [1][3][4]. Group 1 - Gold prices fell by 0.4% to $3545.63 per ounce, with a low of $3511.44 per ounce during the session, primarily due to profit-taking by traders after a record high [3][4]. - The increase in initial jobless claims to 237,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000, reflects a cooling labor market, reinforcing the anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - The non-farm payroll report is seen as a critical indicator that could shift market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, directly affecting the U.S. dollar and gold prices [3][4]. Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by a strong upward trend, but the market is now cautious ahead of the employment report, with many investors opting to wait for clearer data before making significant moves [3][4]. - The technical outlook suggests that a breakthrough in the $3530-$3560 range could provide direction for short-term price movements [4]. - The potential for gold prices to return to historical highs exists, particularly if employment data is weak, while strong employment figures could lead to increased downward pressure on gold prices due to a stronger dollar and rising yields [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to confirm a weak labor market, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 jobs in August, slightly above July's 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month and slow down year-over-year from 3.9% to 3.7% [1] - A "sweet spot" for non-farm payroll data is identified, where the figures should be weak enough to justify a Federal Reserve rate cut but not so weak as to heighten recession fears, which could influence stock market reactions [1] Group 2 - The gold market is closely watching the non-farm payroll report, as weak employment data could reinforce rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, thereby supporting gold's safe-haven demand [1] - If the employment data exceeds expectations, gold may face increased pressure, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips in the current environment [1] - The recent increase in new unemployment claims has further supported the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is also impacting oil prices, leading to a bearish outlook on crude oil [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles revolves around the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a slight increase in employment figures, but concerns about the impact of immigration policies on labor data [1][2] - The previous non-farm employment figure was 73,000, with a forecast of 75,000 for the upcoming report, indicating a trend of employment figures remaining below 100,000 since May [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%, reflecting a stable trend in U.S. employment data since July 2024 [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant drop to 54,000 from the previous 106,000, suggesting that the non-farm payroll report may also reflect poor employment growth [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that employment levels have remained largely unchanged across most regions, suggesting that the non-farm payroll data will not deviate significantly from the previous figures [2] - The outcome of the non-farm payroll report is critical for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 18, with a poor report increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the U.S. dollar index has been experiencing low volatility and is forming a descending triangle pattern, with a potential downward breakout if the non-farm payroll report is disappointing [4] - Key support level for the dollar index is noted at 97.52, and a breach of this level could lead to a new downward trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices reached a 14-year high on Wednesday but lacked sufficient buying support for further gains [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 3, during the Asian trading session, spot silver hit a new high of $40.97 per ounce before slightly retreating [3]. - The price of silver in the European market attempted to rise again but failed to break through, currently trading around $40.70, down nearly 0.50% for the day [3]. - The Shanghai Huatong platinum-silver standard price reported at 9814 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 51 yuan per kilogram from the previous trading day [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Increasing acceptance of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month continues to drive silver prices [3]. - Ongoing uncertainties related to trade are also contributing to silver's strong performance as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows slight overbought conditions, prompting some profit-taking near current silver prices [2][6]. - A strong breakthrough above the psychological level of $40 could trigger further bullish trading, while a drop below $40.00 may lead to a decline towards the support area of $39.50 [6]. - If the support at $39.50 is decisively broken, silver prices could accelerate down to the $39.00 level and potentially reach the $38.50-$38.40 range [6].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【分析师称初请数据强劲凸显美国劳动力市场韧性】分析师Giuseppe Dellamotta对美国初请数据进行点 评，指出该数据表现强劲，尤其是在续请失业金人数下修的情况下。失业金申领数据持续证实劳动力市 场具有韧性。目前，市场焦点将转向ISM采购指数中的就业分项、ADP私营就业数据和美国非农就业报 告。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices surged after finding support at 3351, breaking last week's high of 3378 and reaching a peak of 3386, before fluctuating between 3380 and 3367 [3] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, which is expected to significantly impact interest rate expectations [3] - Current support levels are identified at 3365-3364, while resistance is noted at 3383-3386, with trading strategies suggested for both long and short positions [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of self-discipline and facing one's mistakes as fundamental to success in trading [3] - The analysis covers a comprehensive understanding of the global economic system and highlights the need for investors to grasp key financial fundamentals [3] - The content encourages investors to pay attention to daily market interpretations of commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [3]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell nearly 15 basis points, reaching a daily low of 4.2237%, after briefly rising to a daily high of 4.4060% just ten minutes before the U.S. non-farm payroll report was released [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield dropped approximately 24 basis points, hitting a daily low of 3.7124%, and remained around the 3.95% level prior to the non-farm payroll report [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.2%, settling at 98.67 points [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 1.74%, while the Dow Jones dropped 684 points, reflecting a 1.54% decrease [1] - The Nasdaq fell by 495 points, marking a 2.34% drop, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index decreased by 3.13% [1] - The Russell 2000 index also saw a decline of 2.39% [1]