周三亚洲交易时段，美元指数（DXY）维持偏弱震荡，价格围绕96.65水平波动，市场整体持观望态度。美国1月 非农就业报告及CPI通胀数据是决定美元短期走势的核心，投资者在数据公布前谨慎操作，令美元指数短线波动 收窄，未形成明确趋势。 美国12月零售销售数据疲软，是压制美元走势的重要因素。数据显示，当月零售总额维持在7350亿美元，同比增 长2.4%，显著低于前值3.3%及市场预期增幅。这一表现反映美国消费市场动能减弱，消费者支出趋缓，数据公布 后美债期货攀升、各期限美债收益率下行，市场对美联储年底前降息的预期升温，持续施压美元。 技术面显示，美元指数日线图呈现短线偏弱震荡，价格在96.65附近整理。2月9日其收盘价为96.735，较前一交易 日大幅下跌，2月10日收盘价96.73延续偏弱走势，印证当前震荡偏弱格局。均线系统上，5日均线在价格上方形成 压制，10日均线提供短期支撑，20日均线在96.40附近构成中期防线。 K线形态上，美元指数近期连续收出小阴线及十字线，显示多空力量暂时均衡，但整体承压明显。指标方面， MACD红色动能柱持续缩短，多头动能减弱，DIFF线略低于DEA线，未出现明确反转信号；KDJ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue. The platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern affected by the gold price. The support level range for London platinum is $1900 - 2000 per ounce, and for London palladium, it is $1500 - 1600 per ounce. [2] - The cooling trend in the US labor market continues, strengthening the medium - term interest rate cut expectation. Against the background of Trump's mid - term election pressure and Wash's past policy flexibility, the Fed's easing path is likely to continue. [2] - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards at the end of last year bring higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 540.30 yuan/gram, down 46.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 442.70 yuan/gram, down 8.90 yuan. [2] - The holding volume of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the holding volume of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 546.47 yuan/gram, down 41.63 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 433.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract is 6.17 yuan/gram, up 5.12 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 9.70 yuan/gram, up 24.90 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. [2] - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. [2] - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.63, up 0.26; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.02%. [2] - The VIX volatility index is 18.64, up 0.64. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in January slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since March 2023. Employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [2] - The US ADP added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm employment report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of January CPI on February 13. [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified the official stance on Iran's talks with the US in Oman, saying the negotiation will be held in Muscat, Oman's capital, around 10 a.m. on February 6. [2] - The Fed announced that it will not adjust the capital level of large - scale banks in the 2026 stress - test cycle and is currently considering multiple reforms to improve transparency. [2] - The Eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Service inflation slowed to 3.2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5 at 21:15. [2] - The release time of the US January non - farm employment report is to be determined. [2]

在风云变幻的金融市场,每一次关键数据的发布都如同一颗投入湖面的石子,而美国非农就业报告更是其中的"重磅炸弹",牵动着全球投资者的神经。1月9日,高 盛就即将发布的美国2025年12月份非农就业报告给出了前瞻性分析,其核心观点直指:数据需"大幅意外"才能撼动美联储4月降息预期。这一论断背后,蕴含着 怎样的市场逻辑与经济信号? 高盛前瞻:非农数据"波澜不惊"难改降息预期 高盛在致客户的研究报告中,对即将到来的非农就业报告进行了细致解读。高盛预计,这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人,与普遍预期基本一致。尽管非正 式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险,但高盛坚定认为,一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现有的宏观经济叙事。 当前,市场对于美联储的政策预期已形成较为稳固的共识。市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息,首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。高 盛进一步强调,需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外,才能显著地将这一降息时点提前或推后。这就好比一艘在平静海面上航行的巨轮,非农数 据只有掀起足够大的"风浪",才能改变其既定的航向。 来源：壹点文明 然而,金融市场总是充满了不确定性,非农就业 ...

从市场角度来看，高盛将 7 万至 10 万人之间的非农数据描述为对股市最有利的结果，这符合经济持续 扩张且不引发通胀担忧或威胁宽松周期的预期。这样的结果将支持美国经济正在逐渐放缓而非突然停滞 的观点。 相比之下，若非农数据低于 5 万人，将被解读为低于经济估算的盈亏平衡就业增长率，可能会引发投资 者对增长急剧放缓的担忧，从而令市场不安。在另一个极端情况下，高盛表示，若就业人数超过 12.5 万人，可能会促使市场重新评估美联储首次降息的时机，将预期推迟至 6 月。 高盛在致客户的一份报告中表示，预计非农就业人数增长约 70000 人，这与目前的主流共识基本一致。 尽管非正式的市场"传闻"指向轻微的上行风险，但该行认为，若结果接近预期，将强化现有的宏观叙 事，而非破坏它。 市场目前定价今年美联储将有两次完整的降息，预计首次 25 个基点的降息将在 4 月下旬左右。高盛表 示，劳动力数据需要出现"相当剧烈"的上行或下行意外，才能显著提前或推迟这一时间点。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛表示，即将公布的美国非农就业报告不太可能实质性改变市场对美联储政策的 预期，除非数据出现重大意外，因为目前的市场定价已牢牢锚定在年中开始宽 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose significantly due to heightened geopolitical tensions, reaching close to $4500 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, currently trading at approximately $4450.56 per ounce, down nearly 1% [1] - New York gold futures reported a price of $4455.99 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.89% [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that gold prices will reach $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and continued buying by central banks and funds [17] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices fell over 3% during trading, currently at $78.36 per ounce, with New York silver futures down 3.5% at $78.20 per ounce [4][8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that 2025 will see a peak in the silver market supply gap, with additional upward price risks due to China's new export licensing system [17] - Bank of America has set a target price range for silver between $135 and $309 per ounce, noting that silver's price increase of over 140% in 2025 is nearly double that of gold [19] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve officials express differing views on the need for aggressive interest rate cuts, with some suggesting a potential reduction exceeding 100 basis points this year [10][11] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction, with predictions of job growth slowing and an unemployment rate holding at 4.6% [10][15] - Analysts suggest that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.7%, the Fed may proceed with a 25 basis point cut, with a significant likelihood of more than 60 basis points in total cuts if labor market conditions worsen [16]

来源：中国商报 北京时间1月7日亚市早盘，受地缘政治紧张局势升级提振避险需求影响，现货黄金持续走高，逼近4500美元/盎司关口，随后直线下挫。截至发稿，现货 黄金跌破4470美元/盎司，报4465.77美元/盎司，日内跌0.64%；COMEX黄金报4476.9美元/盎司，日内跌0.44%。 | 伦敦金现(SPTAUUSDOZ) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易中 01-07 09:50:04 | | | | | | | | 4465.77 均0.00 | | | 昨结 4494.59 持仓 0 | | | | | -28.82 -0.64% 量 0 | | | 昨收 4494.59 日增 0.00 | | | | | 分时 周Ｋ | 五日 | 日K | 月K | | 更多』 ◎ | | | 4524.522 | | | | 0.67% | 盘口 卖1 4466.015 | C | | | | | | | ¥1 4465.445 | 0 | | | | | | | 09:49 4464.970 | 0 + | | 449 ...

Group 1: US Employment Data - The US Labor Department will release the December non-farm payroll report on January 5, which is the first complete month unaffected by the government shutdown, making it highly significant [1][6] - The key focus of the report will be the change in non-farm employment, with a previous value of 64,000 and an expected value of 53,000, indicating a slightly pessimistic outlook [1][6] - Historical data shows that since May 2025, non-farm employment figures have been low, with some months even recording negative values [1][6] - A poor non-farm report may not significantly harm the US dollar index, while a strong report could boost it considerably [1][6] - The November data was revised down to -105,000, making the 53,000 forecast appear optimistic, although the reliability of the November data is questionable due to the government shutdown [1][6] Group 2: ADP Employment Data - The ADP employment data for December will be released on January 3, serving as a precursor to the non-farm payroll data [3][9] - The previous ADP figure was -32,000, with an optimistic expected value of 45,000 for December, reflecting alternating positive and negative trends since June [3][9] - Despite the optimistic forecast, the long-term outlook for the US job market remains weak and unstable, limiting the potential positive impact of the December ADP data on the dollar index [3][9] Group 3: Eurozone CPI Data - The Eurozone's December CPI year-on-year data will be released on January 3, with a previous value of 2.1% and an expected slight decrease to 2% [4][13] - The core CPI for December is expected to remain stable at 2.4%, indicating a lack of significant macroeconomic events affecting prices [4][13] - Historical data shows that the core inflation rate in the Eurozone was stable at 2.3% from May to August 2025 and at 2.4% from September to November 2025 [4][13] - The expected stability in core CPI suggests limited volatility for the euro on the day of the data release if the final values meet expectations [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September exceeded expectations, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly higher than the market forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. However, the market's reaction to this data was relatively muted, as indicated by the minor fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The September non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 jobs, while higher than previous values and expectations, remains low compared to earlier months, such as May when the increase was 323,000 jobs, approximately three times the September figure [3]. - The employment market showed improvement in September compared to the previous months of May to August, but it still appears weak when compared to earlier periods [3]. - The positive non-farm data has led to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, dropping to 40% from over 90% a month prior, according to CME Group's FedWatch data [3]. Group 2: Future Employment Reports - The upcoming non-farm payroll reports for October and November are uncertain due to the government shutdown, which affected data collection for October and may impact the November report as well [3]. - The potential delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll report is anticipated, as the first Friday of December may not see timely publication due to data collection issues [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the strong non-farm employment report, the market's response was subdued, with the U.S. dollar index showing a volatility of only 0.09% and gold and silver fluctuating by 0.15% and 0.98%, respectively [1]. - The dollar index had already shown a bullish trend prior to the data release, suggesting that some investors may have positioned themselves in advance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, influenced by the contrasting economic data from the Eurozone and the US, with upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data expected to be critical for future direction [1][2] Fundamental Analysis - Eurozone's October harmonized CPI decreased to 2.1% year-on-year, while core inflation remained stable at 2.4%, leading the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes and maintain a neutral dovish policy, resulting in a lack of support for the Euro [1] - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims data indicating a softening, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts; however, a 1.4% month-on-month increase in August factory orders mitigates downward concerns [1] - The resilience of the US dollar index is attributed to global stock market sell-offs that have triggered safe-haven demand [1] Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate has retreated from a high of 1.1918, with a mild rebound from a low of 1.1468, currently consolidating around 1.1530; key support levels are at 1.1541 and 1.1468, while resistance levels are at 1.1700 and the 1.1654-94 cloud area [2] - MACD indicates a reduction in downward momentum, and RSI shows a slight recovery, but the ADX below 16 suggests a weak trend, indicating potential for continued fluctuation before data releases [2] - Future movements will depend on three main variables: US economic data, the recovery strength of the Eurozone, and global risk sentiment; short-term trading may remain within the 1.1468-1.1700 range, with a stable position above 1.1600 potentially targeting 1.1655-1.1700, while a drop below 1.1541 could lead to a decline towards 1.1468 [2]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, specifically the September non-farm payroll changes and unemployment rate, which were scheduled for announcement at 20:30 Beijing time on October 3 [1] Economic Data Impact - The delay in the release of the September non-farm employment data and unemployment rate is a direct consequence of the government shutdown [1]