Group 1: Deep Topics - The contribution of "export grabbing" to export growth in the first half of the year may be overestimated, with non-US demand recovery and emerging market share increase being key factors for future growth sustainability [9] - The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" and "transshipment trade tariffs" is expected to lead to a short-term decline in exports to ASEAN, but increased investment demand from emerging economies and accelerated urbanization may sustain resilience in exports to these markets next year [29] Group 2: Hot Topics - Recent changes in overseas capital behavior indicate a shift back towards the US driven by the second-quarter earnings season, raising questions about the sustainability of global capital rebalancing [15] - The July fiscal data shows a slowdown in debt funding support and an increase in spending related to people's livelihoods and the service industry [23] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The "shadow Fed chairman" has become a clue for the market's "preemptive" interest rate cut trades since early June, raising deeper questions about the Fed's ability to manipulate interest rates and the yield curve [13] - The US core goods CPI for July came in lower than expected, reflecting ongoing economic dynamics [12]

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the potential sustainability of China's export growth, suggesting that the contribution of "export grabbing" in the first half of the year may be overestimated, with non-US demand recovery and emerging market share gains being crucial for future growth [9][29]. Group 1: In-depth Topics - The article explores whether exports will continue to exceed expectations, highlighting that the recent surge in exports may not be sustainable due to the impact of tariffs and trade policies [9]. - It also addresses the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve and the reassessment of US debt risks, indicating that these factors could influence global financial markets [11]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The macro monthly report notes a new trend in overseas capital behavior, with a shift back towards US markets driven by the second-quarter earnings season [15]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor which markets are worth focusing on for future investment opportunities [9]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article mentions a series of conference calls, including discussions on liquidity and the implications of the Jackson Hole meeting, which are relevant for understanding market dynamics [33][38]. - It highlights the importance of analyzing fiscal data, noting a slowdown in debt funding support and an acceleration in spending related to people's livelihoods and the service sector [23].