关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人 | 浦聚颖 8 . 1 6 - 8 . 2 2 周度研究成果 深度专题 1、深度专题 | 出口会否持续"超预期"？ 2、深度专题 | 美联储的"政治危机"与美债风险的"重估" 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 1、宏观月报 | 海外资金行为"新变化" 高频跟踪 热点思考 2025.8.19 上半年"抢出口"对出口增长的贡献或被高估，非美需求回暖与新兴市场份额提升才是关键。未来增长能否持续？ 哪些市场值得关注？ 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第45期：《聚焦Jackson Hole》 2、"洞见系列" 第85期: 《 出口会否持续"超预期"？ 》 3、 "洞见系列" 第86期:《美联储的"政治危机"与美债的"重估"》 4 、 "周见系列" 第44期： 《激辩"流动性" 》 深度专题 1 深度专题 | 出口会否持续"超预期"？ 点击看全文 2 深度思考 | 美联储的"政治危机" 与美债风险的"重估" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.8.20 1、集中力量办好自己的事---2025年二季度货币政策执行报告解读 2 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the potential sustainability of China's export growth, suggesting that the contribution of "export grabbing" in the first half of the year may be overestimated, with non-US demand recovery and emerging market share gains being crucial for future growth [9][29]. Group 1: In-depth Topics - The article explores whether exports will continue to exceed expectations, highlighting that the recent surge in exports may not be sustainable due to the impact of tariffs and trade policies [9]. - It also addresses the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve and the reassessment of US debt risks, indicating that these factors could influence global financial markets [11]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The macro monthly report notes a new trend in overseas capital behavior, with a shift back towards US markets driven by the second-quarter earnings season [15]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor which markets are worth focusing on for future investment opportunities [9]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article mentions a series of conference calls, including discussions on liquidity and the implications of the Jackson Hole meeting, which are relevant for understanding market dynamics [33][38]. - It highlights the importance of analyzing fiscal data, noting a slowdown in debt funding support and an acceleration in spending related to people's livelihoods and the service sector [23].

Group 1: China Shipbuilding Industry - The merger and restructuring of China Shipbuilding is progressing faster than expected, with potential acceleration in addressing industry competition [1][11] - After the merger, the combined capacity of China Shipbuilding and China State Shipbuilding Corporation could reach up to 33% of global capacity based on DWT and 18% based on CGT [11] - The handover of orders for major shipbuilding companies is significant, with China Shipbuilding holding orders worth approximately $51.2 billion [11] Group 2: Export Trends - China's exports are being driven by the demand for production materials to emerging countries and consumer goods to non-US developed countries [11][13] - Exports to emerging economies increased by 9.6% year-on-year, with production materials contributing significantly to this growth [11] - The overall export growth is partially attributed to "export grabbing," with 30% of the increase possibly linked to this phenomenon [13] Group 3: NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, but adjusted net profit increased by 121% to 1.95 billion yuan [12][14] - The subscription revenue grew by 15.2% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth in paid memberships [12][14] - The company maintained a gross margin of 36.4%, showing significant improvement compared to the previous year [14] Group 4: Small Commodity City - Small Commodity City achieved a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a net profit of 1.691 billion yuan, up 16.8% [18] - The trade service and commodity sales segments showed strong revenue growth, with trade services up 43.2% year-on-year [18] - The company is expanding its market presence with a new global trade center expected to open by the end of October 2025 [18] Group 5: Stone Technology - Stone Technology reported a revenue of 7.903 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 79%, but net profit decreased by 40% [22][26] - The company’s vacuum cleaner business is experiencing significant growth, with a market share of 26% in the first half of 2025 [26] - The company is focusing on expanding its product range and enhancing its market presence in North America [26][24]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% year-on-year, while import growth was 4.1% [5] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% [7] - The overall export performance in July was slightly stronger than expected, with potential risks from new tariffs and regulatory changes [8] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with increased demand from industrial and automotive sectors leading to higher capacity utilization rates [28] - In Q2 2025, SMIC reported revenue of $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding previous guidance [29] - Huahong Semiconductor also reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of $566 million, up 18.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 10.9% [30] Group 3: Construction Industry - The construction industry is under pressure, with indicators such as cement production and prices at low levels, indicating weak demand [18] - The price of rebar and the number of operating hours for excavators are also at near historical lows, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [20] - Leading construction companies are expected to see valuation improvements due to state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [19] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry - LEGO's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 74.3 billion Danish Krone, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [24] - The Chinese toy brand Blokus is experiencing rapid growth, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 2.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 156% [26] - The IP derivative market in China reached a scale of 174.2 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2024 [26] Group 5: Banking Sector - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [47] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.31%, marking a continuous decline over seven quarters [48] - The bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and risk management is expected to enhance its long-term investment value [49] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry - Unified Enterprises China reported a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [51] - The beverage segment achieved a revenue of 10.788 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points [54] - The company's strategy of expanding its product offerings and partnerships is expected to drive further growth [54] Group 7: Pet Food Industry - Zhongchong Co. achieved a revenue of 2.43 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [56] - The company's domestic revenue increased by 38.9%, driven by strong performance in its core brand [57] - The overseas revenue also showed resilience, with a 17.6% increase, supported by new production lines in Canada and Mexico [57]

Core Viewpoint - China's export market has shown strong resilience and internal driving force, with a 7.2% growth rate in exports during the first half of the year, surpassing market expectations and reaching a historical high of over 13 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Export Growth - The manufacturing industry's upgrade and supply advantages have led to a positive cycle of high-quality supply driving both the quantity and quality of exports. High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, with significant increases in high-end machinery, ships, and marine engineering equipment [2]. - Policy incentives and market strategies have played a crucial role, with domestic demand expansion policies facilitating capacity release to support exports. Trade transfer strategies have helped mitigate market risks, especially after the U.S. imposed tariffs [2][3]. - External short-term benefits have also contributed to export growth, including a decrease in U.S. durable goods inventory ratios and temporary tariff reductions that have spurred a new wave of exports [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the positive factors, the global trade environment remains complex and uncertain, with rising unilateralism and protectionism. The "export rush" effect may weaken, leading to increased pressure on exports [3][4]. - The latest customs trade survey indicates a rebound in confidence among export and import enterprises, although there are predictions of potential order declines in the coming months as the "export rush" effects diminish [4]. - To achieve the annual foreign trade growth target, continuous efforts are required, focusing on technological innovation and market expansion to enhance the global competitiveness of "Made in China" products [4].

报告导读： 4月出口增速有三个超预期之处：一是对美出口增速韧性较强，或是受跨境 电商抢出口、豁免产品集中出口等因素影响；二是转口贸易几乎实现完全对冲，中间品 出口或简单再加工的影响截然不同；三是非转口地的贸易增速较高，说明中国出口商可 能正在积极寻找非美增量市场。后续出口或有一定回落，但总体韧性可期。 整体来看： 国别结构上， 2025 年 4 月形成显著的三档分化：对美国出口显著回落，录得 -21.0% ，对转口地东盟 和拉美的出口显著提升，分别录得 20.8% 和 17.3% ，对其他地区的出口增速位于二者之前。 商品结构上， 尽管手机电脑被关税豁免，但出口增速仍然显著回落，可能的原因是前期抢出口有所透支， 关注 5 月 20 日对美具体产品出口数据披露进一步验证。 4 月出口数据呈现出三重超预期之处： 一是对美出口韧性超预期。 环比仅低于季节性 19 个百分点左右，出口的关税弹性仅为 -0.17 。这一定 程度上说明了美国进口商对中国出口商品的高依赖度，此外可能的原因是：（ 1 ）关税仅针对 4 月 9 日 以后出港船舶加征，导致 4 月 1 日至 4 月 9 日延续着 3 月对美较强的出口；（ 2 ） ...